United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Braden Shick #208United States0Max Hans Rehberg #262Germany2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBraden Shick · 54 places

Braden Shick

United States

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #208
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Rehberg reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025. He is a German right-hander from Munich; the available player-profile source lists hard courts as his strongest career surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Braden Shick and Max Hans Rehberg meet in the Sioux Falls first round, and the match turns on Rehberg's habit of losing opening sets.

Shick is the likelier winner, and at 2.2 the price gives him a fair case; Shick to take the first set at 2.1 is the stronger of the two. Rehberg at 1.6 is not worth backing.

Context

Rehberg's hard-court record in this window is 3-2, yet every one of those matches began with him behind.
That 0-5 opening-set record is the widest gap between the two players in this first round, and Shick has taken 6 of his 14 hard-court first sets. Rehberg's counterweight is second sets, where he is 4-1, so the slow starts have not been terminal. Five matches is a small sample, and one of those first sets went to a tiebreak.
- hard-court first sets: 0 won, 5 lost in matches from 4 to 19 October 2026
- first-set games: 3.0 won and 6.4 lost per match
- second sets in the same five matches: 4 won, 1 lost
- one of the five first sets reached a tiebreak
The freshest result in Shick's file is a loss to an opponent ranked more than 400 places below him.
A defeat to a player outside the top 600 is the strongest argument against treating Shick's 54-place ranking edge as decisive. It is also one result in a hard-court sample stretching back to early July, so it reads as a warning rather than a settled trend. Shick still enters as the higher-ranked player with the deeper hard-court record.
- 20 October 2026: lost 1-2 to Gabriel Debru, ranked 673, with sets of 6-2, 2-6, 2-6
- games in that match: 10 won, 14 lost
- opponent ranking: 673 against Shick's 208

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Shick's higher ranking and larger hard-court sample give him a narrow edge, though recent form is mixed.
- Shick is ranked 208, 54 places above Rehberg at 262.
- Shick is 7-7 on hard in the available sample; Rehberg is 3-2 but has only five hard matches.
- Shick has won 49.1% of total points on hard, with 66.2% first-serve points won.
- Rehberg has no serve or return metrics available for comparison.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rehberg's matches regularly extend beyond 25.5 games, and his three-set pattern makes a longer match more likely.
- Rehberg's five hard matches average 27.6 total games.
- Shick's 14 hard matches average 24.2 total games.
- Eleven of the 19 combined hard matches went to three sets.
- Rehberg has gone over 25.5 games in four of five hard matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rehberg's matches often go the distance, and Shick has also been involved in several three-setters.
- Eleven of 19 combined hard-court matches went to three sets.
- Rehberg's five hard matches include four three-setters.
- Seven of Shick's 14 hard matches went to three sets.
- Rehberg has won all three of his hard matches in three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Rehberg's repeated slow starts make Shick the clearer first-set side.
- Rehberg has lost all five hard first sets in the available sample.
- Shick has won 6 of 14 hard first sets.
- Rehberg averages 3.0 games won in hard first sets.
- Shick averages 4.86 games won in hard first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rehberg has been much stronger in second sets than first sets on hard.
- Rehberg has won 4 of 5 hard second sets.
- Shick has won 7 of 14 hard second sets.
- Rehberg's hard matches average 27.6 total games.
- Shick's hard second sets average 9.57 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
No tiebreak is more likely because both players have more hard matches without one.
- Twelve of 19 combined hard matches had no tiebreak.
- Shick's hard matches include five with a tiebreak and nine without.
- Rehberg's hard matches include two with a tiebreak and three without.
- Rehberg's latest match had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Braden Shick

7W 8L

2-6 6-2 6-2#673Gabriel Debru

6-1 6-4#331Mees Rottgering

7-6(4) 0-6 6-3#402Ozan Baris

6-3 7-6(5)#864Patrick Maloney

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#216Jeff Wolf

6-3 6-4#588Erik Arutiunian

6-4 6-1#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 7-5#158Clement Tabur

6-2 6-2#150Mark Lajal

6-2 6-3#224Andres Andrade

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#258August Holmgren

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#900Benjamin Thomas George

5-7 6-3 6-2#215Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-3#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 6-3#351Timo Legout

Max Hans Rehberg

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#331Mees Rottgering

6-1 6-7(1) 7-6(3)#271Hynek Barton

1-6 6-4 7-5#209Edas Butvilas

5-7 6-3 6-3#270Mili Poljicak

6-7(8) 6-3 6-3#841Daniel Cukierman

6-0 6-1#379Andrey Chepelev

6-3 6-2#395Eric Vanshelboim

3-6 6-4 6-0#529Alexander Weis

6-3 6-2#866Giannicola Misasi

6-4 6-4#893Niccolo Catini

6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)#236Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 6-4#198Facundo Mena

6-3 6-4#286Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-1#222Kimmer Coppejans

5-3 ret.#775Jakub Nicod

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BSBraden ShickShick

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Max Hans RehbergRehbergMR

Max Hans Rehberg carries the stronger recent form — Braden Shick's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.4%+7.1pp64.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.4%+4.0pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%+1.5pp49.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.1+1.83.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.20.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.6%+3.8pp40.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.3%+10.2pp54.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1560.0%—59.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.8%+2.9pp51.7%

Serve · 2–3

57.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp64.5%

66.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp70.4%

50.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.5pp49.0%

5.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.83.3

3.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

36.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp40.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

44.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+10.2pp54.5%

60.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—59.3%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.9pp51.7%