United StatesSioux Falls - USARETFeatured

Predictions graded

Stefan Kozlov #278United States2Murphy Cassone #268United States1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 3-0Tue 27 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions1–325%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMurphy Cassone · 10 places

Stefan Kozlov

United States

The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 295, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #278
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Murphy Cassone

United States

Cassone reached a career-high No. 172 on 18 August 2025. Official profile data lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #172 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Cassone's 9-2 hard-court run against Kozlov's 3-8 record sets the tension, with Kozlov holding the memory of that 2025 Champaign final win.

Cassone is the likelier winner, but the 1.45 asks more than his results and absent serve data justify, and 1.55 on him leading after the first set is no better. No quoted price here is worthwhile.

Context

The Champaign final was decided by two tiebreaks, giving this rematch a specific recent reference point beyond an aggregate head-to-head record. It shows that their latest title match was closely contested over two sets. That result came at another tournament and does not establish a current availability or court-condition factor.
- The most recent supplied meeting was the 16 November 2025 Champaign final, won by Kozlov in two tiebreak sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:19 · Europe/BucharestChampaign final match recordwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026
Cassone's set-by-set hard-court numbers read close to even in games, well short of a runaway profile.
Those set splits show a player who wins the opener more often than not, but rarely runs away with either set: four of his 11 first sets went to a tiebreak. For this matchup against a returner of Kozlov's modest hard-court output, the likelier shape is a tight set rather than a quick kill. His straight-set wins were more common than three-set wins (five to four), which is why a clean win is plausible but not the dominant pattern.
- Cassone's hard-court set data covers 11 completed matches from 14 July to 20 October 2026.
- He is 7-4 in first sets and 7-4 in second sets in that sample, averaging 5.8 and 5.6 games won respectively.
- Scorelines: 2-0 five times, 2-1 four times, 0-2 twice; seven of the 11 matches contained a tiebreak.
Kozlov competes deep into matches on hard courts but has converted few of them into wins.
Five of those 11 matches finished 1-2 and two finished 2-1, so the distance pattern is his normal outcome rather than an outlier. He won just 11 of 29 sets (37.9%) and 48.1% of games on the surface, meaning the long matches have mostly ended in defeats. Against a player winning 9 of 11 on the same surface, that combination suggests resistance without a reliable finish.
- Kozlov's hard-court set data covers 11 completed matches from 14 July to 1 October 2026, retirements excluded.
- Set scorelines in that sample: 1-2 five times, 2-1 twice, 0-2 three times, 2-0 once.
- He won 11 of 29 sets (37.9%) and 48.1% of games across those matches, averaging 2.64 sets per match.
Cassone's most recent outing was competitive in score but ended in defeat.
That result follows five straight tracked wins from 20 to 25 September 2026, including a 7-6, 6-4 win over Billy Harris (249), so the 9-2 surface run is genuine but not unbroken. The two tight sets against a player outside the top 400 also fit the broader pattern of close sets in his recent matches. No fitness or availability information accompanies the result, so it reads as a form note rather than a physical one.
- Cassone lost 4-6, 6-7 to Kenta Miyoshi (ranked 441) on 20 October 2026.
- Immediately before that he won five tracked matches between 20 and 25 September 2026, including 7-6, 6-4 over Billy Harris (249) and a three-set win over Daniel Masur (367).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Murphy Cassone

1.45fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69%

−5.0ppshort

Cassone has the clearly better recent hard-court results and holds set leads more often.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Murphy Cassone

1.55fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 64.5%

−3.5ppshort

Cassone has been the more reliable first-set player on hard this season.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Cassone has the clearly better recent hard-court results and holds set leads more often.
- Cassone is 9-2 on hard in his last 11 completed matches.
- Cassone is 7-4 in first sets and 7-4 in second sets on hard.
- Kozlov is 3-8 on hard with 48.1% games won.
- Seven of Cassone's 11 hard-court matches included a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMurphy CassoneEstimated chance64%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches sit around the line, and Cassone's tiebreak frequency raises the chance of a longer total.
- Cassone's hard-court matches average 24.8 total games.
- Kozlov's hard-court matches average 24.2 total games.
- Cassone has played tiebreaks in 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Kozlov has gone three sets in 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 24.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Cassone has been the more reliable first-set player on hard this season.
- Cassone is 7-4 in first sets on hard.
- Kozlov is 4-7 in first sets on hard.
- Cassone's first sets average 10.7 total games with four tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- Cassone is 9-2 on hard overall.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMurphy CassoneEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kozlov's matches often go the distance and Cassone has also had several three-set wins, making a decider slightly more likely than not.
- Kozlov's hard-court matches average 2.64 sets.
- Cassone's hard-court matches average 2.36 sets.
- Kozlov has seven three-set matches in 11 hard-court matches.
- Cassone has four three-set wins in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cassone's recent hard-court matches often include tiebreaks, and the last meeting between them had two.
- Cassone had a tiebreak in 7 of 11 hard-court matches; Kozlov in 2 of 11.
- Their most recent meeting was decided by two tiebreak sets.
- Cassone's first sets average 10.7 games; Kozlov's 9.4.
- Cassone has four first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Murphy Cassone: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Murphy Cassone matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Murphy Cassone4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#204Harry Wendelken1-0#269Murphy Cassone

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·55%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#204Harry Wendelken1-0#269Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone to win

55%probability

Harry Wendelken won

Missed

16 Jul·Granby - Canada

#354Blaise Bicknell1-2#287Murphy Cassone

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·58%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#354Blaise Bicknell1-2#287Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone to win

58%probability

Murphy Cassone won

Matched

9 Jul·Newport - USA

#289Murphy Cassone1-2#224Darwin Blanch

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·58%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#289Murphy Cassone1-2#224Darwin Blanch

Murphy Cassone to win

58%probability

Darwin Blanch won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#1391Ronald Hohmann2-1#264Murphy Cassone

BetBugsMurphy Cassone to win·78%

Missed

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#1391Ronald Hohmann2-1#264Murphy Cassone

Murphy Cassone to win

78%probability

Ronald Hohmann won

Missed

Stefan Kozlov

6W 9L

6-2 3-6 6-3#349Mitchell Krueger

6-3 6-2#551James Kent Trotter

6-4 6-2#218Colton Smith

6-3 2-6 7-6(10)#159Darwin Blanch

2-6 6-4 6-1#213Harry Wendelken

6-3 5-7 6-2#336Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-1#77Zachary Svajda

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#504Alan Magadan

6-4 6-4#684Roger Pascual Ferra

4-6 6-1 6-2#738Leo Vithoontien

6-3 3-6 6-4#280Yi Zhou

3-6 6-3 6-2#87Jacob Fearnley

6-4 2-6 6-4#106Yibing Wu

6-4 6-2#458Garrett Johns

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3#336Aidan Mayo

Murphy Cassone

9W 6L

6-4 7-6(0)#441Kenta Miyoshi

5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#202Harold Mayot

6-7(4) 7-6(12) 6-4#367Daniel Masur

7-6(3) 6-4#249Billy Harris

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#158Clement Tabur

6-2 7-5#524Patrick Zahraj

6-4 6-0—Hugo Car

6-3 7-6(8)#185Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-5 ret.#213Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-3#44Arthur Gea

6-2 6-1#339Philip Sekulic

6-7(7) 6-2 7-5#412Blaise Bicknell

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 1-6 6-3#159Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#63Ethan Quinn

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SKStefan KozlovKozlov

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Murphy CassoneCassoneMC

Murphy Cassone carries the stronger recent form — Stefan Kozlov's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In61.6%+0.9pp62.5%

1st Serve Won62.9%+10.5pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+3.4pp53.6%

Aces / Match2.1+3.45.5

Double Faults / Match3.00.3 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.2%+4.5pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.9%+2.3pp41.6%

Break Pts Saved54.4%+8.9pp63.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.0%+1.8pp50.8%

Serve · 0–5

61.6%1st Serve In+0.9pp62.5%

62.9%1st Serve Won+10.5pp73.4%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp53.6%

2.1Aces / Match+3.45.5

3.0Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

40.2%Return Pts Won+4.5pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

43.9%Break Pts Converted+2.3pp41.6%

54.4%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp63.3%

Points · 0–1

49.0%Total Pts Won+1.8pp50.8%