GermanyBonn - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Hans Rehberg #339Germany2Stefano Travaglia #142Italy0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Tue 28 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefano Travaglia · 197 places

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

The ITF lists grass as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025.

Current ranking: #339
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 60 on 8 February 2021.

Current ranking: #142
Peak ranking: #60 · 2021
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 16:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Max Hans Rehberg's superior recent clay form (11-4) and home crowd support give him a slight edge over Stefano Travaglia, but the match is expected to be tight.

Best betting angles: over 21.5 total games, over 2.5 sets, and Rehberg 2-1 at 4.25 odds, while avoiding Travaglia 2-1.

Context

Rehberg's last match was a three-set loss on 25 July, just three days before this match.
- He played four matches in five days in Zug, all on clay, with an average duration of 106.9 minutes per match in his last 15.
- No injury or retirement signals were found, but the workload is a current concern.
Travaglia's last match was a straight-set loss on 17 July, giving him 10 days of rest.
- His recent form is 8-7 in the last 15 matches, with a 53.3% win rate, suggesting inconsistency.
- No injury or fitness concerns are reported during this break.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Rehberg's superior recent form on clay (73.3% win rate in last 15) and higher total points won (54.6% vs 51.3%) give him a slight edge, though Travaglia's higher ranking and experience keep it close.
- Rehberg last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Travaglia 8-7 (53.3%)
- Rehberg last15 clay record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Travaglia 7-6 (53.8%)
- Rehberg last15 total points won 54.6% vs Travaglia 51.3%
- Rehberg last15 first serve points won 74.3% vs Travaglia 70.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
First sets between these two average around 10 games, and with both showing solid serve numbers, a tight opening set pushing over 9.5 games is likely.
- Rehberg last15 set1 average games 9.7 (146 games / 15 sets)
- Travaglia last15 set1 average games 10.1 (152 games / 15 sets)
- Both players have tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 22 games per match in recent form, and with a competitive matchup expected, the total games line of 21.5 is likely to be exceeded.
- Rehberg last15 average games per match 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
- Travaglia last15 average games per match 22.9 (344 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have 3-set matches in 7 of last 15 (Rehberg) and 6 of last 15 (Travaglia)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets often remain competitive, and with both averaging over 9 games, over 9.5 is a reasonable expectation, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Rehberg last15 set2 average games 9.3 (140 games / 15 sets)
- Travaglia last15 set2 average games 9.5 (143 games / 15 sets)
- Both players have a tendency for closer second sets after competitive first sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a high frequency of three-set matches in recent form and a close matchup expected, over 2.5 sets has a solid probability.
- Rehberg last15 3-set matches: 7 of 15 (46.7%)
- Travaglia last15 3-set matches: 6 of 15 (40%)
- Combined 3-set rate in recent matches: 43.3%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rehberg's slightly better serve numbers and recent clay dominance suggest a marginal edge in set 1, but both have identical career first-set conversion rates, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Rehberg last15 first set win conversion 86% career, but recent form shows 8 first-set wins in last 15
- Travaglia last15 first set win conversion 86% career, but only 7 first-set wins in last 15
- Rehberg last15 first serve points won 74.3% vs Travaglia 70.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high tiebreak frequency in recent matches, and with a close contest expected, at least one tiebreak is probable.
- Rehberg last15 tiebreak occurrence: 5 of 15 matches (33.3%)
- Travaglia last15 tiebreak occurrence: 7 of 15 matches (46.7%)
- Combined tiebreak rate: 40%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average of 3.8 suggests over 3.5 is likely, but the low per-match numbers make this a low-confidence prediction.
- Rehberg last15 double faults per match 1.7
- Travaglia last15 double faults per match 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match 3.8
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Travaglia's higher ace rate (5.7 per match) pushes the combined average over 9, making over 8.5 a slight lean, though Rehberg's lower ace count adds uncertainty.
- Rehberg last15 aces per match 3.4
- Travaglia last15 aces per match 5.7
- Combined average aces per match 9.1
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Max Hans Rehberg

11W 4L

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#240Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#342Anton Matusevich

6-3 6-4#122Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-3#538Alexander Donski

6-3 6-4#223Guido Ivan Justo

2-6 7-5 6-4#88Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#213Moise Kouame

6-1 6-2#434Dylan Dietrich

6-4 3-6 6-4#386Olle Wallin

6-2 3-6 6-1#400Samuele Pieri

6-2 6-1—Gregoire Delattre

6-0 6-4—Louis Mouffe

3-6 6-3 6-4#200Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-3 6-3#538Alexander Donski

6-3 6-1#516Alex Marti Pujolras

Stefano Travaglia

8W 7L

7-6(5) 6-2#65Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-4 6-2#44Mariano Navone

6-4 6-2#261Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-1#323Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(7) 6-4#239Yi Zhou

7-5 7-6(3)#178Luka Mikrut

6-1 6-7(5) 6-3#176Roberto Carballes Baena

7-6(5) 6-3#281Petr Bar Biryukov

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#623Pierluigi Basile

7-5 7-6(5)#362Jacopo Vasami

6-2 6-3#197Diego Dedura

6-4 6-2#214Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#221Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 7-5#118Michael Zheng

6-3 6-7(2) 7-5#273Juan Pablo Ficovich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMax Hans RehbergRehberg

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Stefano TravagliaTravagliaST

Max Hans Rehberg carries the stronger recent form — Stefano Travaglia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In66.4%+8.1pp58.3%

1st Serve Won74.3%+3.5pp70.8%

2nd Serve Won59.3%+7.9pp51.4%

Aces / Match3.4+2.35.7

Double Faults / Match1.70.4 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.9%—40.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.5%—44.0%

Break Pts Saved70.5%+8.4pp62.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.6%+3.3pp51.3%

Serve · 4–1

66.4%1st Serve In+8.1pp58.3%

74.3%1st Serve Won+3.5pp70.8%

59.3%2nd Serve Won+7.9pp51.4%

3.4Aces / Match+2.35.7

1.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.9%Return Pts Won—40.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

44.5%Break Pts Converted—44.0%

70.5%Break Pts Saved+8.4pp62.1%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won+3.3pp51.3%