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Predictions graded

Clement Tabur #158France2Toby Samuel #96United Kingdom0

Sets 7-6 · 6-1Thu 29 Oct 2026, 15:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageToby Samuel · 62 places

Clement Tabur

France

Reliable current profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #158
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Toby Samuel

United Kingdom

British right-hander whose LTA profile lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high ATP ranking of No. 109 on 3 August 2026.

Current ranking: #96
Peak ranking: #109 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Second round at Brest: Tabur has won seven of his 12 first sets on hard this autumn, while Samuel, ranked 96 to Tabur's 158, has the stronger overall record at 9-5.

Samuel is the likelier winner, but 1.4 asks him to win about seven matches in ten, more than the record shows. Tabur at 2.5 for the first set and 2.75 to win the match are the two prices with appeal.

Context

Tabur, ranked 158, has been a quicker starter than finisher on hard courts this autumn.
Seven of those 12 matches went to a tiebreak and his opening sets averaged 11.25 games, so they have tended to run long rather than break open early. Against a higher-ranked opponent in the second round, the first set is the part of the contest where his record is strongest. This is a 12-match sample, not a long-term rate.
- 12 hard-court best-of-three matches, 25 Aug to 28 Oct 2026: 7-5 in first sets.
- First-set games average 6.08 won to 5.17 lost.
- Seven of the 12 matches contained a tiebreak.
Samuel's ranking edge over Tabur has not been absolute across the autumn.
It is a single result rather than a trend, but it shows a player outside the top 250 has beaten him this month. Tabur, at 158, sits in that same range of opponent. The loss came outdoors, while this second-round match is indoors, so the conditions differ.
- 7 Oct 2026, outdoor hard: lost 6-7, 3-6 to Hynek Barton, ranked 271.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Toby Samuel

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

−11.0ppshort

Samuel's second-set record is his strongest statistic, with a large game margin over a 12-match sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel has the stronger recent record and ranking, and his second-set scoring margin points to a player who finishes matches well.
- Samuel has won 9 of 14 hard-court matches in this window, Tabur 6 of 12.
- Samuel's set-two record is 9-3 with 5.67 games to 3.42.
- Tabur's break-point conversion on hard is 40.2%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostToby SamuelEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets regularly run past 9.5 games, helped by Tabur's habit of taking sets to a tiebreak.
- Tabur's first sets average 11.25 total games.
- Samuel's first sets average 10.83 total games.
- Tabur has had 7 tiebreaks in 12 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A slight lean to the under because Samuel's matches are shorter on average and he wins many of them in straight sets.
- Samuel's 12 hard-court matches average 22.6 total games.
- Samuel has won 2-0 in 5 of 12 hard matches and lost 0-2 in 3.
- Tabur's average match duration on hard is 120.9 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets sit right on the line, with very little separating the two players' totals.
- Tabur's second sets average 9.83 total games.
- Samuel's second sets average 9.08 total games.
- Only 2 tiebreaks in Tabur's second sets against 1 for Samuel.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Samuel's second-set record is his strongest statistic, with a large game margin over a 12-match sample.
- Samuel has won 9 of 12 second sets on hard.
- He averages 5.67 games to 3.42 in second sets.
- Tabur has lost 7 of 12 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostToby SamuelEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common result for both players, especially Samuel, who wins more often than he loses.
- Samuel won 2-0 in 5 of 12 and lost 0-2 in 3 of 12 hard matches.
- Tabur's hard matches split 3-3 between 2-0 and 0-2 scorelines.
- Samuel averages 2.33 sets per match on this surface.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Tabur starts matches better than Samuel does, winning first sets more often and with a positive game margin.
- Tabur has won 7 of 12 first sets on hard, Samuel 5 of 12.
- Tabur averages 6.08 games to 5.17 against in first sets.
- Tabur's first-serve points won on hard is 70.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClement TaburEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly more likely that no tiebreak occurs, since Samuel's matches are short on average and often decided by a single break.
- Samuel's hard matches average 22.6 games.
- 4 of Samuel's 12 hard matches contained a tiebreak.
- Tabur's matches average 25.7 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Toby Samuel: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Toby Samuel matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Toby Samuel7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#171Jack Pinnington-Jones0-2#127Toby Samuel

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·72%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#171Jack Pinnington-Jones0-2#127Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel to win

72%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

12 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#150Toby Samuel2-0#148August Holmgren

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·58%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#150Toby Samuel2-0#148August Holmgren

Toby Samuel to win

58%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

8 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#147Kyrian Jacquet1-2#159Toby Samuel

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#147Kyrian Jacquet1-2#159Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel to win

62%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

21 May·ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#185Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·62%

Matched

21 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#185Gonzalo Bueno

Toby Samuel to win

62%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

20 May·ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#247David Goffin

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·60%

Matched

20 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#247David Goffin

Toby Samuel to win

60%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

Previous match context available

Clement Tabur

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#301Filippo Romano

7-6(3) 6-3#48Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-1#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-2#110Valentin Royer

7-6(10) 6-3#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#364Henry Bernet

2-6 6-3 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-1 6-4#321Thomas Faurel

7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3#243Matteo Martineau

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#282Murphy Cassone

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#202Harold Mayot

6-4 7-5#208Braden Shick

4-6 6-4 6-4#292Henri Squire

7-5 6-3#895Orlando Luz

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#209Edas Butvilas

Toby Samuel

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#185Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-3 7-6(3)#41Zizou Bergs

7-6(11) 6-3#271Hynek Barton

6-2 4-6 6-2#223Jerome Kym

7-5 6-1#238Mackenzie Mcdonald

4-6 6-4 6-1#224Andres Andrade

6-4 6-2 6-4#20Jiri Lehecka

6-2 6-3 6-2#72Tomas Machac

4-6 6-4 5-0 ret.#151Cristian Garin

4-6 6-1 6-4#252Billy Harris

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#174Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 7-5#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-5 6-1#191Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-2#197Liam Draxl

7-6(4) 6-2#268Charles Broom

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CTClement TaburTabur

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Toby SamuelSamuelTS

Toby Samuel carries the stronger recent form — Clement Tabur's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.2%—62.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.6%+1.3pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.1%+2.7pp50.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.3—5.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.11.3 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.1%+5.8pp41.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.4%+12.2pp52.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1559.3%+3.5pp62.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.7%+3.0pp52.7%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

62.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—62.6%

69.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp70.9%

53.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.7pp50.4%

5.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—5.2

2.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp41.9%

Pressure · 0–2

40.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+12.2pp52.6%

59.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp62.8%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp52.7%

Clement Tabur

Toby Samuel

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Clement Tabur

Clement Tabur

Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Clement Tabur

Toby Samuel

Stat Battle