Toby Samuel #150United Kingdom22 – 0August Holmgren #1480

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Holmgren's recent competitiveness and Samuel's narrow margins make Holmgren +3.5 games a strong play.

• Samuel's average games won margin in last 5 wins: +3.6; Holmgren's average loss margin in last 5 losses: -4.0.
• Holmgren has covered +3.5 in 4 of last 5 matches overall.
• Samuel's recent wins have been tight, with only one win by more than 3.5 games in last 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' recent match lengths and tiebreak tendencies, this Bo3 match is likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Samuel's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Holmgren's last 5 averaged 21.4.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates: Samuel 64% career, Holmgren 54%, suggesting close sets.
• In Bo3 grass matches, 21.5 is a common threshold; both players have shown ability to extend sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be tight, with over 9.5 games expected based on recent set lengths and surface.

• Samuel's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games; Holmgren's averaged 9.8.
• Both players have strong first-set win rates, suggesting competitive opening sets.
• Grass often leads to 7-5 or 7-6 sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While second sets can vary, the grass surface and both players' competitiveness suggest a near-even chance of over 9.5 games.

• Samuel's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games; Holmgren's averaged 9.2.
• Second sets can be more one-sided if a player leads, but both have shown resilience.
• No strong trend, but grass keeps sets close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' high tiebreak rates and recent frequency make at least one tiebreak likely in this match.

• Samuel tiebreak win rate 64%; Holmgren 54%, both above average.
• Samuel has played a tiebreak in 3 of last 5 matches; Holmgren in 4 of last 5.
• Grass courts often produce tiebreaks due to serve dominance.