FranceATP Roland GarrosFinished

Predictions graded

Toby Samuel #159United Kingdom2David Goffin #247Belgium1

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 6-3Wed 20 May 2026, 10:38 Predictions gradedQ2Clay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageToby Samuel · 88 places

Toby Samuel

United Kingdom

Samuel reached a career-high No. 159 on 18 May 2026. His four listed Challenger singles titles have all come on hard courts, and his recent trajectory is upward rather than decline.

Current ranking: #159
Peak ranking: #159 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

David Goffin

Belgium

Former world No. 7 and 2017 ATP Finals runner-up. His current ranking is well below that peak, with the May 2026 structured feed listing him at No. 247 entering Roland Garros qualifying.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #7 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 10:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Toby Samuel's career-best form and 10-5 recent record give him a clear edge over the struggling David Goffin, who is 3-12 in his last 15 matches and battling knee issues.

Samuel's strong first-set record and straight-set win trend make him the likely winner, with value on the match-winner market at odds around 1.73.

Context

Samuel is 10-5 in his last 15 matches, including a 6-2, 7-6 win over world No. 112 Martin Damm in Q1.
- He reached a career-high ranking of No. 159 on 18 May 2026.
- Seven of his last ten wins have come in straight sets, showing he can close matches efficiently.
Goffin is 3-12 in his last 15 matches, with losses to players ranked outside the top 300.
- He withdrew from 2026 Australian Open qualifying in December 2025, citing knee discomfort that needed more healing time.
- His 2026 clay record is 2-3, with the wins coming against lower-ranked opponents.
Samuel's career first-set win conversion rate is 92%.
- He won the first set in four of his last five matches, including a 7-6 tiebreak against Damm.
- Goffin lost the first set in four of his last five matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Samuel's superior recent form and clay-court results in 2026, combined with Goffin's poor form and declining ranking, give Samuel a clear edge in this matchup.
- Samuel's recent form: 10-5 in last 15 matches, with 3 wins in last 5 including a Q1 win over #112 Damm.
- Goffin's recent form: 3-12 in last 15 matches, with only 2 wins in last 5, both against lower-ranked opponents.
- Samuel's clay record in 2026: 5-4, with wins over top-200 players; Goffin's 2026 clay: 2-3, losses to players outside top 300.
- Samuel's first-set win conversion rate: 92% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonToby SamuelEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' recent match lengths and the potential for a straight-set win by Samuel, the total games could stay under 21.5.
- Samuel's last 5 wins averaged 19.6 games per match; Goffin's last 5 losses averaged 18.4 games.
- Both players had quick Q1 matches: Samuel 21 games, Goffin 16 games.
- Goffin's 2026 clay matches averaged 19.2 games; Samuel's averaged 21.1 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Samuel's ability to win comfortably against players outside the top 100 and Goffin's struggles against higher-ranked opponents make a -3.5 game handicap feasible.
- Samuel's average game margin in wins over lower-ranked opponents: +5.2 games.
- Goffin's average game margin in losses to higher-ranked opponents: -5.8 games.
- Samuel's recent wins include margins of +5, +2, +6, +9.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonToby Samuel -3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set in their recent matches has often been decided in 9 games or fewer, supporting an under 9.5 games.
- Samuel's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 (average 9.2 games).
- Goffin's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, 2-6 (average 8.8 games).
- Both players' Q1 first sets were 7-6 and 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's strong first-set record and Goffin's tendency to start slowly make Samuel the likely winner of the opening set.
- Samuel's first-set win conversion: 92% career, and he won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Goffin lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Samuel's recent first-set performance: won first set 6-2, 7-6, 6-2, 6-3 in last 4 wins.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostToby SamuelEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The trend of straight-set outcomes in both players' recent matches supports a match ending in two sets.
- Samuel's last 10 wins: 7 in straight sets.
- Goffin's last 10 losses: 6 in straight sets.
- Both players' Q1 matches were straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the potential for a straight-set win reduce the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Samuel's tiebreak win rate: 63% career, but only 2 of his last 10 matches featured a tiebreak.
- Goffin's tiebreak win rate: 51% career, with 3 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
- Both players' Q1 matches had no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, and their combined average is near the line, but recent form suggests a slight under.
- Samuel's double fault rate: 3.0% (career), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Goffin's double fault rate: 4.4% (career), averaging ~3-4 per match.
- Combined average double faults in recent matches: ~5-6.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace rates, and their combined average aces per match suggest the total could exceed 7.5.
- Samuel's ace rate: 5.8% (career), averaging ~4-5 aces per match in recent clay matches.
- Goffin's ace rate: 6.8% (career), averaging ~3-4 aces per match on clay.
- Combined average aces in their recent matches: ~8-9.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Toby Samuel

11W 4L

7-6(11) 6-2#112Martin Damm

6-3 2-6 6-4#198Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 6-1 6-4#241Raul Brancaccio

4-6 6-3 6-3#175Zsombor Piros

7-6(7) 7-6(2)#169Joel Schwaerzler

6-2 3-6 7-6(2)#198Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-4 6-1#307Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#188Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#275Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#323Maxim Mrva

6-2 7-5#266Stefan Dostanic

6-4 7-5#279Robin Bertrand

6-3 6-0#307Daniel Rincon

7-6(2) 6-1#669Menelaos Efstathiou

6-3 6-0#228Harry Wendelken

David Goffin

4W 11L

6-3 6-1#183Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 6-4#382Thomas Faurel

6-4 6-2#97Emilio Nava

6-3 6-7(6) 7-6(2)#97Emilio Nava

2-6 6-3 6-3#57Ignacio Buse

6-1 6-4#99Roberto Bautista Agut

6-4 6-1#183Chun Hsin Tseng

4-6 6-3 6-4#169Joel Schwaerzler

7-6(6) 5-7 6-1#173Giulio Zeppieri

6-1 ret.#114Francisco Comesana

7-5 7-5#56Hamad Medjedovic

7-6(9) 7-5#45Marin Cilic

6-1 7-6(4)#45Marin Cilic

6-2 7-6(4)#114Francisco Comesana

7-6(5) 6-4#114Francisco Comesana