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Predictions graded

Jurij Rodionov #137Austria0Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia2

Sets 6-7 · 1-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions6–186%

Edges6–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNikoloz Basilashvili · 9 places

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 87 on 19 February 2024. Left-handed Austrian; no reliably sourced current injury or decline narrative was identified.

Current ranking: #137
Peak ranking: #87 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili's 13-1 hard-court run and a 13-of-14 first-set record meet a home wild card who has won five of seven opening sets on hard courts.

Basilashvili is the likely winner, and the prices of 1.65 to win, 1.65 for the first set, 2.40 for a 2-0 win and 2.00 giving 2.5 games all stand up. The unders at 1.50 and 1.65 do not.

Context

Basilashvili has paired a heavy first-set record with short matches, with ten of his 13 wins in the sample finishing in two sets.
The run covers one month and 14 matches and ends with a 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas on 24 October; five of the six matches before it were straight-set wins. Ten of the 13 wins in the sample finished 2-0, so opponents have rarely been let back into sets, although five of the 14 matches still contained a tiebreak.
- Hard-court best-of-three sample: 14 matches (22 Sep–24 Oct 2026), 13 wins, 1 loss, ten 2-0 scorelines.
- Latest match: beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 on 24 October 2026.
- Five of the 14 matches in the sample included a tiebreak.
Rodionov won the first set in a tiebreak, then took only five games across the last two sets and finished 12-19 on games. It is one result against a player ranked 290, so it does not establish a wider pattern, but it is his most recent completed match before Vienna.
- 18 October 2026, indoor hard: lost 7-6, 5-7, 0-6 to Pierre-Hugues Herbert (No. 290).
- Games across the match: Rodionov 12, Herbert 19.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Basilashvili's recent hard-court record and first-set control make him the clear favorite.
- Basilashvili is 13-1 in his last 14 hard-court matches.
- He has won the first set in 13 of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- His latest wins include Tsitsipas, Mannarino, Diaz Acosta and Cilic.
- Rodionov is 5-4 on hard in his last nine matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance73%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Basilashvili's recent wins have generally come by at least three games.
- Basilashvili's last six hard-court match margins were +4, +8, +6, +6, +3 and +6 games.
- All six clear the -2.5 line.
- He has won 13 of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Full game margins for all 14 matches are unavailable.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNikoloz Basilashvili -2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Basilashvili's frequent straight-set wins make the under slightly more likely.
- Basilashvili's latest six hard-court matches average 21.5 total games.
- He has ten 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rodionov's hard-court best-of-three matches average 23.86 total games.
- Basilashvili's hard-court best-of-three matches average 23.21 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Basilashvili's opening-set record is the strongest single pattern in the sample.
- Basilashvili has won the first set in 13 of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- His set1 games average is 6.0 won and 3.57 lost.
- Rodionov has won the first set in 5 of 7 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Basilashvili won the first set 6-4 in their only meeting.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Basilashvili's recent wins have mostly been completed in two sets.
- Basilashvili has ten 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- He has won 10 of his 13 hard-court wins in straight sets.
- His latest six hard-court matches include five straight-set wins.
- Rodionov's hard-court best-of-three matches average 2.57 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Basilashvili's dominant straight-set record supports a 2-0 scoreline.
- Basilashvili has ten 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- He has won 10 of his 13 hard-court wins in straight sets.
- Basilashvili's latest six hard-court matches include five 2-0 wins.
- Rodionov has one 0-2 loss in seven hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonNikoloz Basilashvili 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set wins with early breaks make a tiebreak less likely than not.
- Basilashvili has seen a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Rodionov has seen a tiebreak in 2 of 7 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Basilashvili has ten 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- The only head-to-head had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Nikoloz Basilashvili: 4/10 recent winner projections matched

4 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Nikoloz Basilashvili matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nikoloz Basilashvili10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili won

Matched

20 Jul·ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Tiago Torres won

Missed

7 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·55%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

55%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Missed

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

62%probability

Elias Ymer won

Missed

Previous match context available

Jurij Rodionov

9W 6L

6-7(5) 7-5 6-0#290Pierre-Hugues Herbert

7-6(6) 6-3#41Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-1#178Gauthier Onclin

5-7 6-3 6-1#367Daniel Masur

7-6(4) 6-1#515Matisse Bobichon

6-3 3-6 6-2 6-3#16Jakub Mensik

7-6(2) 6-0 7-6(4)#145Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

4-6 6-4 6-4#87Jacob Fearnley

6-2 3-6 6-1#262Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-1 6-4#222Kimmer Coppejans

6-1 6-4#124Rei Sakamoto

7-6(5) 6-4#609Jamie Mackenzie

7-6(3) 6-3#491Niels Mcdonald

6-3 6-4#282Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-2 7-6(4)#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Nikoloz Basilashvili

13W 2L

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#39Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 6-1#79Adrian Mannarino

6-2 6-4#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 7-5#84Marin Cilic

6-4 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton

6-2 7-5#179Taro Daniel

6-3 2-2 ret.#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#135Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JRJurij RodionovRodionov

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashviliNB

Nikoloz Basilashvili carries the stronger recent form — Jurij Rodionov's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1555.9%+2.4pp58.3%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1571.2%+9.8pp81.0%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1551.7%+6.1pp57.8%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/156.8+2.89.6

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.80.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1536.8%+2.9pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1537.6%—37.9%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1568.6%+10.3pp58.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.0%+4.3pp54.3%

Serve · 0–5

55.9%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+2.4pp58.3%

71.2%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+9.8pp81.0%

51.7%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+6.1pp57.8%

6.8Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+2.89.6

2.8Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

36.8%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+2.9pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

37.6%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15—37.9%

68.6%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+10.3pp58.3%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+4.3pp54.3%

Jurij Rodionov

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili -2.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili 2-0

Under 2.5

Under 23.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Jurij Rodionov

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stat Battle