KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinished

Predictions graded

Tomas Machac #72Czechia1Karen Khachanov #25Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 6-7Thu 22 Oct 2026, 09:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaren Khachanov · 47 places

Tomas Machac

Czechia

The Czech reached his career-high ranking of No. 20 in March 2025. Available historical performance data identifies hard court as his strongest surface.

Current ranking: #72
Peak ranking: #20 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Karen Khachanov

Russia

Russian player born 21 May 1996. His ITF profile lists a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 8 in July 2019 and preferred surfaces of hard and clay.

Current ranking: #25
Peak ranking: #8 · 2019
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 07:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Khachanov's serve and ranking against Machac's short, sharp comeback is the shape of this one.

The 2024 champion here has the better hard-court record and opened without conceding a break point; Machac won his opener in 62 minutes but is 5-7 in his last 12 hard-court matches. The likely outcome is a Khachanov win, possibly in straight sets. No reviewed price is worth taking: 1.38 on Khachanov and 1.44 on under 2.5 sets both ask more than the evidence justifies.

Context

Machac's 2026 has been rebuilt around a foot problem that cost him Wimbledon, and Almaty is his first ATP round of 16 since April, so timing rather than fitness is the open question. His 62-minute win over a wildcard with no senior ranking answered none of it: he lost the first two games, then won twelve in a row. The light workload leaves him fresh for a second match in two days but offers no evidence about how his ball-striking holds against a top-30 server. A player still finding rhythm is the likeliest place for a lopsided scoreline to mislead.
- The foot injury cost him Wimbledon in 2026.
- Almaty is his first ATP round of 16 since April 2026.
- He trailed 0-2 in the first set against Nurlanuly and then won the last 12 games.
- The first round lasted 62 minutes.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:04 · Europe/BucharestAlmaty Open round-of-16 previewwww.thestatszone.com · 21 Oct 2026
Five wins at the last major of the season, including one over a top-10 opponent and a semi-final that turned on two tiebreaks, are the strongest evidence in this draw that Khachanov's level is still tour-final standard, and they came on hard court five weeks before Almaty. What followed is thinner: a Beijing quarter-final, a straight-sets loss to Alex de Minaur in Shanghai, then nothing until this week. That makes his clean Almaty opener the more current form line, and it was untroubled.
- He beat Auger-Aliassime in New York on the way to the semi-finals.
- Zverev won the semi-final in straight sets, two of them tiebreaks.
- He followed it with a Beijing quarter-final and a Shanghai round of 16, where Alex de Minaur beat him 6-3 6-4.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Almaty is one of the stops where Khachanov has turned a week into a title, in 2024, and the conditions that produced it are the ones he meets again: indoor hard, thin air, low bounce. His 2026 opener reinforced the link with no break point conceded across two sets. For this fixture the relevant part is service pressure: Machac's route to an early lead depends on generating return chances against a first serve that was barely touched in the first round.
- Khachanov won the Almaty title in 2024.
- He is seeded fifth in the 2026 draw.
- He faced no break point in his 6-2 6-4 first-round win over Sakamoto.
- He won 93% of points on his first serve in that match.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:04 · Europe/BucharestAlmaty Open round-of-16 previewwww.thestatszone.com · 21 Oct 2026
One completed match is thin evidence, but its shape is informative: Machac forced two tiebreaks at Melbourne Park and still lost in four, so the matchup has been settled on a handful of points rather than a gap in weapons. The date matters too. That match was played in January 2024, when Machac was near the career-high No. 20 he reached in March 2025, a level he has not sustained through 2026. The result describes how the two games fit together better than it describes current form.
- The two have met once on tour, at the 2024 Australian Open.
- Khachanov won that match in four sets.
- Two of the four sets went to tiebreaks.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Karen Khachanov

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

−2.5ppshort

Khachanov has the higher ranking, stronger recent hard-court results, title history in Almaty and a serving display that fits the fast indoor court.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.44fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.4%

−1.4ppshort

Straight-set results are more common in both players' hard-court records, especially when Khachanov wins the first set.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Karen Khachanov

1.44fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69.4%

−5.4ppshort

Khachanov's first-set record is much stronger and he started his Almaty campaign with a 6-2 set.

Set 2 Total GameswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 9.5

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Second sets have been close for both players, with several tiebreaks in Machac's sample.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 22.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

The combined game averages sit near the line and the high hold rate in Almaty raises the chance of longer sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Khachanov has the higher ranking, stronger recent hard-court results, title history in Almaty and a serving display that fits the fast indoor court.
- No. 25 against No. 72
- 9-5 on hard in the last 14 matches
- Won Almaty in 2024 and opened 2026 with a 6-2 6-4 win, facing no break point
- Had an extra rest day before this match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKaren KhachanovEstimated chance70%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Machac has kept recent hard-court matches close, and Khachanov has not often won by four or more games.
- Machac's recent hard margins: +10, -1, +9, +5, -3, 0
- His two losses were by one and three games
- Khachanov won by four or more games in only 3 of his last 6 hard matches
- Khachanov's recent hard margins include -5 twice
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTomas Machac +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Second sets have been close for both players, with several tiebreaks in Machac's sample.
- Khachanov's second sets average 10.1 total games
- Machac's second sets average 10.0
- Khachanov had two second-set tiebreaks in nine
- Machac had four in 11
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Khachanov's first sets often reach 6-4 or longer, and the indoor court's high hold rate supports extra games.
- Khachanov's first sets average 10.4 total games
- Machac's first sets average 9.1
- Khachanov had two first-set tiebreaks in nine
- Machac had one in 11
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The combined game averages sit near the line and the high hold rate in Almaty raises the chance of longer sets.
- Khachanov's hard best-of-three matches average 23.4 total games
- Machac's average 21.6
- Khachanov had a tiebreak in 4 of 9
- Machac had a tiebreak in 4 of 11
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Straight-set results are more common in both players' hard-court records, especially when Khachanov wins the first set.
- 5 of 20 combined hard best-of-three matches went three sets
- Khachanov has four 2-0 scorelines in nine
- Machac has five 0-2 scorelines in 11
- Khachanov won the first set in 6 of 9
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Khachanov's first-set record is much stronger and he started his Almaty campaign with a 6-2 set.
- Khachanov won the first set in 6 of 9 hard best-of-three matches
- Machac won the first set in 4 of 11
- Khachanov took the first set 6-2 in the opener
- Machac lost the first set in 7 of 11
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKaren KhachanovEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set records are close, but Khachanov's overall ranking and first-round serving give him a slight lead.
- Khachanov won the second set in 4 of 9 hard best-of-three matches
- Machac won the second set in 5 of 11
- Khachanov's second-set games average is 5.0 won and 5.1 lost
- Machac's is 5.2 won and 4.8 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKaren KhachanovEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Khachanov's first-set record and Machac's frequent straight-set losses point to a straight-set win for the higher-ranked player.
- Khachanov won the first set in 6 of 9 hard best-of-three matches
- Machac won the first set in 4 of 11
- Khachanov's hard best-of-three scorelines include four 2-0 wins
- Machac's include five 0-2 losses
BetBugs · Set BettinglostKaren Khachanov 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their combined hard-court matches did not include a tiebreak, and both openers were completed without one.
- 8 of 20 combined hard best-of-three matches had a tiebreak
- Khachanov's Almaty opener had no tiebreak
- Machac's Almaty opener had no tiebreak
- Khachanov has four 2-0 scorelines in nine
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance53%

Prediction history

Karen Khachanov: 8/13 recent winner projections matched

8 of 13 comparable winner projections favouring Karen Khachanov matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Karen Khachanov13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#171Bernard Tomic2-0#26Karen Khachanov

BetBugsKaren Khachanov to win·65%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#171Bernard Tomic2-0#26Karen Khachanov

Karen Khachanov to win

65%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#22Karen Khachanov3-0#56Yannick Hanfmann

BetBugsKaren Khachanov to win·62%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#22Karen Khachanov3-0#56Yannick Hanfmann

Karen Khachanov to win

62%probability

Karen Khachanov won

Matched

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#22Karen Khachanov3-1#140Billy Harris

BetBugsKaren Khachanov to win·78%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#22Karen Khachanov3-1#140Billy Harris

Karen Khachanov to win

78%probability

Karen Khachanov won

Matched

16 Jun·ATP Halle

#15Karen Khachanov1-2#67Ethan Quinn

BetBugsKaren Khachanov to win·82%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#15Karen Khachanov1-2#67Ethan Quinn

Karen Khachanov to win

82%probability

Ethan Quinn won

Missed

29 May·ATP Roland Garros

#15Karen Khachanov2-3#106Jesper De Jong

BetBugsKaren Khachanov to win·65%

Missed

29 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#15Karen Khachanov2-3#106Jesper De Jong

Karen Khachanov to win

65%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5)Tomas Machac#72vKaren Khachanov#25Jan 19, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Tomas Machac

7W 8L

6-2 6-0—Zangar Nurlanuly 6-4 3-6 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-2 6-1#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-4#131Alexandre Muller

6-4 7-6(4)#19Alexander Bublik

1-6 7-6(3) 6-2#170Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-2#80Alex Molcan

6-3 6-4#44Arthur Gea

7-6(7) 6-7(6) 6-4#59Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-3 6-2#96Toby Samuel

6-2 7-6(1)#331Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-2 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-4 6-3#41Zizou Bergs

6-4 7-6(4)#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

Karen Khachanov

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#124Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-4#8Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4#79Adrian Mannarino

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(2)#34Arthur Fery

7-6(2) 6-2#30Hubert Hurkacz

7-5 6-3#80Alex Molcan

6-3 6-3#7Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 7-6(7) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-2 7-5 3-2 ret.#27Alexander Blockx

7-5 4-6 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4#18Learner Tien

6-3 6-2 6-4#100Benjamin Bonzi

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2#7Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 6-0 6-1#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

5-7 6-3 7-6(2)#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 7-6(3)#98Terence Atmane

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TMTomas MachacMachac

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Karen KhachanovKhachanovKK

Karen Khachanov carries the stronger recent form — Tomas Machac's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.7%+4.3pp61.4%

1st Serve Won68.5%+9.6pp78.1%

2nd Serve Won48.1%+6.9pp55.0%

Aces / Match4.9+3.28.1

Double Faults / Match1.80.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.1%+1.1pp37.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.2%+7.9pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved56.3%+12.4pp68.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.7%+4.4pp53.1%

Serve · 2–3

65.7%1st Serve In+4.3pp61.4%

68.5%1st Serve Won+9.6pp78.1%

48.1%2nd Serve Won+6.9pp55.0%

4.9Aces / Match+3.28.1

1.8Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won+1.1pp37.2%

Pressure · 0–2

40.2%Break Pts Converted+7.9pp48.1%

56.3%Break Pts Saved+12.4pp68.7%

Points · 0–1

48.7%Total Pts Won+4.4pp53.1%