ItalyATP RomeFinished

Predictions graded

Lorenzo Sonego #66Italy0Ignacio Buse #62Peru2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Thu 7 May 2026, 17:08 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIgnacio Buse · 4 places

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

Reached career-high No. 21 in October 2021. ATP's January 2026 bio lists clay as his favourite surface, and Rome has been one of his better Masters events.

Current ranking: #66
Peak ranking: #21 · 2021
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Ignacio Buse

Peru

Reached a career-high No. 58 on 2026-04-20. Publicly listed Challenger finals and titles are concentrated on clay, which is the clearest surface signal available from the required search set.

Current ranking: #62
Peak ranking: #58 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 May 2026, 10:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Sonego’s superior serve and Rome clay pedigree give him a clear edge over Buse, whose recent physical issues and poor form make an upset unlikely.

Back Sonego to win at 2.30, and consider over 21.5 total games given both players’ tendency for extended matches. Buse +3.5 games is a tight but viable handicap play.

Context

On 14 March 2026, Sonego stated the wrist issue began in Hong Kong and was still not fully resolved, having already caused withdrawals from Indian Wells, Phoenix, and Miami.
- His 2026 clay record is 1-3, with losses to Bellucci, Lajovic, and Rublev, and his only win came against No. 136 Martinez Portero.
- Since the wrist problem, he has not played more than three matches in any tournament, and his last five matches show a 1-4 record.
On 22 March 2026 in Miami, Buse was visibly limited by a raw foot wound against Dzumhur, and his camp confirmed it was a live physical issue.
- In his most recent clay outing on 1 May 2026, he took medical attention during a 6-4, 6-0 loss to Tabilo and won only four games.
- He has lost three of his last four matches on clay, with the only win coming against a No. 375 opponent.
Sonego's career first-serve win rate is 72%, compared to Buse's 67%.
- Sonego saves 63% of break points, while Buse saves only 58.8%.
- Buse is the better returner (42% of return points won vs. 37%), but Sonego's serve dominance should help him hold more comfortably in longer rallies.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Sonego's superior serve and clay pedigree, combined with Buse's recent physical issues and poor form on clay, give Sonego a clear advantage in this best-of-3 match.
- Sonego has a career clay win percentage of 55.1% with 204 wins, and reached the Rome semifinals in 2021.
- Buse's recent form includes a 6-4 6-0 loss to Tabilo on clay where he took medical attention, and a 1-3 record in his last 4 matches on clay.
- Sonego's serve stats are stronger: 72% win on first serve vs Buse's 67%, and 63% break point save rate vs 58.8%.
- Buse's return points win percentage is higher (42% vs 37%), but Sonego's first serve and break point defense give him an edge in holding serve.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLorenzo SonegoEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Given both players' recent match lengths and the competitive nature of their games, this match is likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Sonego's last 5 matches on clay averaged 22.6 games per match.
- Buse's last 5 matches on clay averaged 22.4 games per match.
- Both players have a tendency to play close sets: Sonego's recent clay matches include three-setters against Bellucci and Martinez Portero.
- Buse's matches often go to deciding sets or tiebreaks, with 4 of his last 10 matches exceeding 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Buse's competitive return game and Sonego's recent narrow margins suggest Buse can cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Sonego's average games won margin in his last 5 clay wins is +3.2 games.
- Buse's average games lost margin in his last 5 clay losses is -4.0 games, but he has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents.
- Buse's return points win percentage (42%) is higher than Sonego's (37%), which could help him stay within 3.5 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIgnacio Buse +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Recent first set scores for both players consistently exceed 9.5 games, indicating a competitive start to the match.
- Sonego's last 5 first sets on clay: 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 — all over 9.5 games.
- Buse's last 5 first sets on clay: 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 — all over 9.5 games.
- Both players have strong first set win conversion rates, suggesting a tight opening set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and forcing games past 9.5.
- Sonego's last 5 second sets on clay: 6-1, 7-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 — 4 of 5 over 9.5 games.
- Buse's last 5 second sets on clay: 6-0, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6, 6-2 — 3 of 5 over 9.5 games.
- Even in lopsided matches, second sets often see a response from the trailing player.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Sonego's strong first set conversion rate and Buse's recent struggles in opening sets on clay suggest Sonego is likely to take the first set.
- Sonego has a first set win conversion rate of 82% in his career, indicating he often starts strong.
- Buse's first set win conversion is 85%, but his recent first sets include a 6-4 loss to Tabilo and a 6-4 loss to Moutet.
- Sonego's recent first sets on clay: won 6-2 vs Martinez Portero, lost 6-3 to Lajovic, lost 6-4 to Bellucci.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLorenzo SonegoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sonego's strong serving, especially on clay, should generate enough aces to push the combined total over 7.5.
- Sonego averages 7.3 aces per match in his career, with a higher ace rate on clay.
- Buse averages 3.9 aces per match, but Sonego's ace count alone could push the total over 7.5.
- In their recent matches, Sonego hit 8 aces vs Bellucci and 6 vs Lajovic on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak tendencies make a tiebreak likely.
- Sonego has a career tiebreak win percentage of 51%, and has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 10 matches.
- Buse has a tiebreak win percentage of 55%, and has played tiebreaks in 5 of his last 10 matches.
- Both players have strong first set win conversion rates, which often leads to tight sets and tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the pressure of a Masters 1000 match could lead to a total over 5.5.
- Sonego averages 2.8 double faults per match, while Buse averages 3.4.
- In their last 5 matches, Sonego has averaged 3.2 double faults and Buse 3.6.
- Combined, their averages suggest around 6.8 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Lorenzo Sonego

8W 7L

6-4 1-6 7-5#80Mattia Bellucci

6-3 7-6(1)#132Dusan Lajovic

6-2 6-3#14Andrey Rublev

6-2 2-6 6-4#136Pedro Martinez Portero

6-3 6-3 6-4#10Lorenzo Musetti

6-4 6-0 6-3#131Carlos Taberner

6-3 6-4#261Juncheng Shang

6-2 7-6(4)#156Rei Sakamoto

4-6 6-2 6-4#19Cameron Norrie

6-4 7-6(6)#64Daniel Altmaier

2-6 6-3 7-5#12Flavio Cobolli

4-6 6-4 6-4#122Jan Choinski

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#9Daniil Medvedev

3-6 6-3 6-1#10Lorenzo Musetti

6-2 6-3#43Sebastian Korda

Ignacio Buse

7W 8L

6-4 6-0#35Alejandro Tabilo

6-4 6-2#375Thomas Faurel

7-6(4) 6-3#114Francisco Comesana

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-5#17Arthur Fils

6-4 6-2#45Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-4#30Corentin Moutet

2-6 6-3 6-3#249David Goffin

6-3 3-6 7-5#61Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-4#100Matteo Berrettini

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-1#87Damir Dzumhur

6-2 3-6 6-3#110Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#140Moez Echargui

3-6 6-3 6-4#96Rinky Hijikata

6-4 7-6(3)#171Liam Draxl

2-6 7-6(0) 7-6(2)#69Thiago Agustin Tirante

Lorenzo Sonego

Ignacio Buse

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Ignacio Buse +3.5

Lorenzo Sonego

Lorenzo Sonego

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Lorenzo Sonego

Ignacio Buse