KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Zangar NurlanulyKazakhstan0Tomas Machac #75Czechia2

Sets 2-6 · 0-6Wed 21 Oct 2026, 08:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Zangar Nurlanuly

Kazakhstan

Kazakh player born 4 July 2008. Reliable public senior-profile information, including a current singles ranking and surface preference, is limited.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Tomas Machac

Czechia

The Czech reached his career-high ranking of No. 20 in March 2025. Available historical performance data identifies hard court as his strongest surface.

Current ranking: #75
Peak ranking: #20 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 04:16 · Europe/Bucharest

An 18-year-old ranked No.

1358, Zangar Nurlanuly plays his home ATP 250 against No. 75 Tomas Machac, who is 4-7 on hard courts in this window and arrives three days after a quarterfinal loss in Jinan. Machac should still win, but 1.01 for the match and 1.05 for either of the first two sets ask for more certainty than his recent form supports, so none of those prices is worth taking.

Context

Machac's last completed match before Almaty was a 2h19m defeat by a qualifier ranked 144 places below him at 125-level, which sets the level question for this opener. Against Nurlanuly, ranked No. 1358, Machac is the established favourite who has to dictate and close out a match he is expected to win, a situation he did not manage in Jinan after taking the opening set. The counterweight is the rest of that week: his wins over Muller and Vukic cost ten games across four sets, so the Draxl result is an isolated dip rather than a sustained pattern.
- Liam Draxl beat Tomas Machac 6-4 3-6 6-4 in the Jinan quarterfinals
- Machac was seeded sixth and ranked No. 75; Draxl was a qualifier ranked No. 219
- The quarterfinal lasted 2h19m
- Machac had beaten Alexandre Muller 6-3 6-4 and Aleksandar Vukic 6-2 6-1 earlier in the same week
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Machac has to move from a completed Chinese hard-court block to a Kazakh indoor event with about two days between his final Jinan match and this opener, which limits time to adjust to a new venue and a three-hour clock change. That is the opposite of Nurlanuly's position, with no competitive tennis since 1 October, so the fresher player in this matchup is the one with no recent match rhythm. The limitation is volume rather than duration: two of the five matches were short straight-set wins, so total court time was moderate and a fatigue reading should not be pushed far.
- Machac beat Zhizhen Zhang 1-6 7-6(3) 6-2 on 7 October 2026
- Machac lost 6-4 7-6(4) to Alexander Bublik
- Machac won in Jinan on 13 and 15 October and lost there
- Almaty kickoff is 19 October 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:14 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 9 Oct 2026
His most recent competitive appearance ended in retirement, and nothing has followed in the 18 days before this match, so his physical readiness for a home ATP 250 is not established. The retirement came on the second of back-to-back days after a three-set win, which admits a fatigue explanation as readily as a physical one, and no cause has been stated. For the fixture it matters because a player ranked No. 1358 has little margin against a top-75 opponent at full capacity, and any restriction on serving or covering the court over three sets would remove the most plausible route to staying in the match.
- Nurlanuly retired against Paul Jubb after losing the first set 3-6
- He beat Aaron Gabet 6-3 1-6 6-4 on 30 September 2026
- No competitive match recorded between and the Almaty opener
To watchSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:14 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore player profilewww.flashscore.com · 1 Oct 2026
Machac is the higher-ranked player but has routinely handed over the opening set during this hard-court block.
A slow start has been Machac's pattern: seven of ten first sets went against him and he averaged under four games in them. Against an opponent ranked No. 1358 that may not cost him the match, but it makes a clean, quick evening less certain. His 4-6 second-set record shows the recovery is not automatic either.
- Ten hard-court matches tracked from 14 August to 16 October 2026
- Set 1: 3 wins, 7 losses; 3.9 games won and 5.3 lost on average
- Set 2: 4 wins, 6 losses; 5.1 games won and 5.3 lost
- Four of the ten matches contained a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tomas Machac

1.01fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 99%

−15.0ppshort

Machac is ranked 75th and has a far stronger hard-court serve and return record, while Nurlanuly is a 1,358th-ranked teenager whose recent wins are mostly at ITF level.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tomas Machac

1.05fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 95.2%

−21.2ppshort

Machac's serve should steady him after a tight opening, and he has more second-set wins than first-set wins in the sample.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tomas Machac

1.05fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 95.2%

−23.2ppshort

Despite losing more first sets than he has won, Machac's serve and ranking should give him the early lead against a much lower-ranked opponent.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Machac is ranked 75th and has a far stronger hard-court serve and return record, while Nurlanuly is a 1,358th-ranked teenager whose recent wins are mostly at ITF level.
- Machac ranked No. 75; Nurlanuly No. 1,358
- Machac 4-7 on hard this window; Nurlanuly 5-4 but mostly at ITF level
- Machac on hard: 66.3% first-serve points won, 35.9% return points won
- Nurlanuly has no serve or return metrics in the feed
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTomas MachacEstimated chance84%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nurlanuly's first sets often reach double figures, and a competitive opening set is likely at home.
- Nurlanuly first sets average 10.4 games
- Machac first sets average 9.2 games
- Nurlanuly has four first-set tiebreaks in nine hard matches
- Machac has one first-set tiebreak in ten hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average near or above the line, and Nurlanuly's home support could add games.
- Nurlanuly hard matches average 23.2 games
- Machac hard matches average 22.4 games
- Nurlanuly has four three-set matches in nine
- Machac's last five hard matches include two three-setters
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Machac's second sets frequently go past nine games, and Nurlanuly's home support could keep the second set close.
- Machac second sets average 10.4 games
- Nurlanuly second sets average 9.0 games
- Machac has four second-set tiebreaks in ten hard matches
- Nurlanuly has one second-set tiebreak in nine hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Machac's serve should steady him after a tight opening, and he has more second-set wins than first-set wins in the sample.
- Machac 4-6 in second sets on hard
- Nurlanuly 5-4 in second sets on hard
- Machac 5.1 aces per hard match
- Nurlanuly's second sets average 9.0 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTomas MachacEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Despite losing more first sets than he has won, Machac's serve and ranking should give him the early lead against a much lower-ranked opponent.
- Machac 3-7 in first sets on hard
- Nurlanuly 5-4 in first sets on hard
- Machac wins 66.3% of first-serve points on hard
- Nurlanuly averages 5.8 first-set games won and 4.7 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTomas MachacEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome for both players on hard courts, and the ranking gap points to a short match.
- Machac 7 of 10 hard matches finished in straight sets
- Nurlanuly 5 of 9 hard matches finished in straight sets
- Machac's hard scorelines: two 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses
- Nurlanuly's hard scorelines: three 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Machac's ranking and serve advantage point to a straight-set win, though his own hard-court scorelines are inconsistent.
- Machac has two 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses in ten hard matches
- Nurlanuly has three 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses in nine hard matches
- Machac wins 66.3% of first-serve points on hard
- Nurlanuly ranked No. 1,358
BetBugs · Set BettingwonTomas Machac 2-0Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Machac's serve can keep sets away from tiebreaks, and neither player's sample shows tiebreaks in most matches.
- Nurlanuly has four tiebreaks in nine hard matches
- Machac has four tiebreaks in ten hard matches
- Machac wins 66.3% of first-serve points on hard
- Nurlanuly has no serve metrics in the feed
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Previous match context available

Zangar Nurlanuly

7W 8L

6-2 4-3 ret.#440Paul Jubb

6-3 1-6 6-4—Aaron Gabet

6-2 3-6 6-2#303Fajing Sun

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#709Grigory Shebekin

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1—Dan Brand

2-6 6-4 1-0 ret.—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-0 6-4#688Aleksandre Bakshi

6-0 6-3#199Edas Butvilas

6-3 7-5#434Ivan Gakhov

6-4 6-4—Alexander Gschiel

6-1 6-3#642Stefan Popovic

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#881Artur Kukasian

7-6(2) 6-1#886Brian Bozemoj

6-1 6-3#850Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul

7-5 6-3—Ruslan Kastsiukevich

Tomas Machac

6W 9L

6-4 3-6 6-4#219Liam Draxl

6-2 6-1#115Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-4#133Alexandre Muller

6-4 7-6(4)#22Alexander Bublik

1-6 7-6(3) 6-2#166Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-2#84Alex Molcan

6-3 6-4#56Arthur Gea

7-6(7) 6-7(6) 6-4#57Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-3 6-2#100Toby Samuel

6-2 7-6(1)#327Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-2#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-2 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-4 6-3#39Zizou Bergs

6-4 7-6(4)#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#40Cameron Norrie

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ZNZangar NurlanulyNurlanuly

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Tomas MachacMachacTM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.0%+7.1pp65.1%

1st Serve Won62.7%+5.5pp68.2%

2nd Serve Won49.1%—48.7%

Aces / Match2.3+2.34.6

Double Faults / Match6.84.7 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.0%+5.7pp35.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted45.4%+12.1pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+3.1pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.3%+1.1pp48.2%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

58.0%1st Serve In+7.1pp65.1%

62.7%1st Serve Won+5.5pp68.2%

49.1%2nd Serve Won—48.7%

2.3Aces / Match+2.34.6

6.8Double Faults / Match4.7 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

41.0%Return Pts Won+5.7pp35.3%

Pressure · 2–0

45.4%Break Pts Converted+12.1pp33.3%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+3.1pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

49.3%Total Pts Won+1.1pp48.2%