United StatesFort Worth - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Gabriel Debru #673France2Alex Rybakov #696United States1

Sets 1-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Thu 22 Oct 2026, 18:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGabriel Debru · 23 places

Gabriel Debru

France

Won the 2022 Roland Garros boys' singles title and holds three Challenger titles, the most recent in August 2026. Plays US college tennis for Texas in his second collegiate season, which keeps his tour schedule to short blocks.

Current ranking: #673
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Alex Rybakov

United States

Structured player data lists Rybakov at No. 507, left-handed with a one-handed backhand, and 185 cm. A retirement is listed at the Cary Challenger in late June 2026, but the requested sources do not identify an active issue for Roehampton.

Current ranking: #696
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players 23 ranking places apart: Debru's returning and 7-1 hard-court record pull one way, Rybakov's first-set dominance the other.

Rybakov should start the sharper, Debru is the likelier to still be there in a third set, and the match itself is close, with Debru's return game a slight edge. Rybakov to win the opening set at 2.00 is the one price worth taking; Debru at 1.73 for the same set is one to leave.

Context

Shick was the third seed and world No. 208 against a No. 673 opponent, a gap of roughly 465 places that the score line reversed after a 2-6 opening set. The turnaround matters for this fixture because it came on outdoor hard courts, where Debru has won seven of his last eight completed matches, and against a seeded player rather than a fellow qualifier. The limitation is that Shick lost six games in a row in each of the last two sets, so the win shows Debru punished a collapse rather than proving a repeatable level well above his ranking.
- Debru beat Braden Shick 2-6, 6-2, 6-2 in the Fort Worth first round .
- Shick was the tournament's third seed and is ranked No. 208; Debru is ranked No. 673.
- The first round was played on the outdoor hard courts where the round of 16 is scheduled for 22 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Rybakov will be playing his fourth match in five days when he faces Debru, having qualified on 18 and before his 6-4, 6-0 first-round win over Gavin Young . The load is real but light in court time, since all six sets he has won came in straight sets and none of the three opponents was ranked inside the top 400. Debru, by contrast, played one singles match this week, so any accumulated fatigue for Rybakov would be expected to surface late in a long third set rather than early.
- Rybakov beat Karl Poling 6-4, 6-4 on 18 October and Bor Artnak 6-4, 6-4 to qualify without losing a set.
- He then beat Gavin Young 6-4, 6-0 in the first round .
- He entered the main draw as a qualifier.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Rybakov, 29, is the quicker starter in this sample; Debru has won three of seven first sets over the same period.
Rybakov's first-set record is the clearest early-match pattern here: 12 wins in 15 hard-court matches, only three opening sets lost since early August. Debru has won three of seven first sets and lost his latest 2-6 to Braden Shick. The sample is modest and Debru has recovered from slow starts before, so an early Rybakov lead would not settle the match.
- Rybakov won 12 of 15 first sets across completed best-of-three hard-court matches from 4 August to 20 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.9 games won to 4.2 games lost in those opening sets.
- One of the 15 first sets reached a tiebreak.
Debru's second-set numbers are the counterweight to his slow starts: he has lost the opening set more often than he has won it, yet has rarely lost the second.
Debru's second-set record is the mirror image of his first: six wins in seven, 5.9 games to 3.9. That is why his matches run long, with five of seven going the distance and a 2.7-set average. Rybakov has been steadier across both sets, so a Debru surge after a slow start is a plausible route rather than a settled one.
- Debru won 6 of 7 second sets in seven completed best-of-three hard-court matches between 27 July and 20 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.9 games won to 3.9 games lost in second sets.
- Five of the seven matches went to a third set, with a 2.7-set average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru's better returning and higher game share give him a narrow edge in a near-even ranking matchup.
- Debru is 7-1 on hard in this sample with 53.2% of points and 55.9% of games won.
- Rybakov is 9-6 on hard with 52.4% of points and 54.3% of games won.
- Debru returned 43.3% of points on hard against Rybakov's 37.6%.
- Rybakov has the stronger serve: 74.2% first-serve points won to 71.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGabriel DebruEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru's long matches and the likely split of sets push the total just above the line.
- Debru's hard-court matches average 25.4 total games; Rybakov's 21.6.
- Debru played five of seven matches to three sets.
- Rybakov played five of fifteen matches to three sets.
- Both players average under ten games in a set, so close sets accumulate.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set length sits just above the line.
- Rybakov's first sets average 10.1 total games.
- Debru's first sets average 9.6 total games.
- Rybakov's first sets included one tiebreak.
- Debru's first sets have been lopsided at 4.4-5.1 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakov's shorter second sets tilt the combined average just under the line.
- Rybakov's second sets average 9.2 total games.
- Debru's second sets average 9.7 total games.
- Rybakov won second sets 6-0 and 6-4 in his two latest matches.
- Debru lost one second set 8-10 to Braswell.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Rybakov's early-set record is the clearest set-level pattern in the evidence.
- Rybakov won 12 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Rybakov averages 5.9 games against 4.2 in first sets.
- Debru won 3 of 7 first sets and lost his last one 2-6.
- Rybakov won his latest match 6-4, 6-0.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru's second-set record is strong and he often gains control as matches develop.
- Debru won 6 of 7 second sets on hard.
- Debru averages 5.9 games against 3.9 in second sets.
- Rybakov won 10 of 15 second sets.
- Debru won 6-2, 6-2 in the second and third sets of his last match.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGabriel DebruEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Contrasting set patterns make a deciding set roughly as likely as a straight-set finish.
- Debru's matches averaged 2.71 sets, with five of seven going to a third.
- Rybakov's matches averaged 2.27 sets, with four of fifteen lost 1-2.
- Rybakov's 12-3 first-set record against Debru's 6-1 second-set record suggests a split.
- Debru won his last match 2-6, 6-2, 6-2.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent sets have usually been settled before a tiebreak.
- Three of 22 sampled hard matches included a tiebreak.
- Debru has one tiebreak in seven hard matches.
- Rybakov has two tiebreaks in fifteen hard matches.
- Rybakov's latest win was 6-4, 6-0.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two players combine for roughly ten aces per match, above the line.
- Debru averages 5.1 aces per hard match.
- Rybakov averages 4.9 aces per match.
- Both serve at over 63% first serves in.
- Rybakov won 74.2% of first-serve points, indicating a damaging serve.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru's high double-fault rate carries most of the combined total above the line.
- Debru averages 4.4 double faults per hard match.
- Rybakov averages 2.2 double faults per match.
- Debru committed 61 double faults in 14 overall matches.
- Rybakov committed 33 in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Gabriel Debru

10W 5L

2-6 6-2 6-2#208Braden Shick

6-3 2-6 10-8#888Micah Braswell

6-4 6-4—Zachary Fuchs

3-6 7-5 6-4#490Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-2#583Paul Inchauspe

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#475Koki Matsuda

6-4 3-6 6-2#293Florent Bax

4-6 6-2 6-2#464Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-3#182Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#114Gustavo Heide

7-6(6) 6-4#899Renzo Olivo

6-2 3-6 7-5#447Carlos Taberner

6-4 5-7 6-0#369Juan Pablo Ficovich

0-6 6-2 6-3#199Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-3#144Andrea Pellegrino

Alex Rybakov

9W 6L

6-4 6-0#542Gavin Young 6-4 6-4#538Bor Artnak 6-4 6-4#452Karl Poling

4-6 6-3 6-3#425Luca Staeheli

7-5 6-3#756Matthew Forbes

1-6 6-3 6-4#402Ozan Baris

6-3 6-4#748Karue Sell

7-6(6) 6-3#565Ryan Seggerman

6-4 6-2#652Dan Martin

5-7 6-4 6-3#658Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#264Charles Broom

6-1 7-6(0)#499Fares Zakaria

6-2 3-6 6-1#289Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-2—Billy Blaydes

6-3 6-3#895Matthew Summers

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GDGabriel DebruDebru

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Alex RybakovRybakovAR

Alex Rybakov carries the stronger recent form — Gabriel Debru's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1564.3%+6.9pp71.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.8%+6.4pp74.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1548.2%+4.1pp52.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.8+1.14.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.42.2 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1542.2%+4.6pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1545.2%+10.1pp35.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.3%+16.1pp72.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.5%+0.9pp52.4%

Serve · 0–5

64.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.9pp71.2%

67.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.4pp74.2%

48.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.1pp52.3%

3.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.14.9

4.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.2 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.6pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

45.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+10.1pp35.1%

56.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+16.1pp72.4%

Points · 0–1

51.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+0.9pp52.4%