United StatesFort Worth - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Karl Poling #459United States0Alex Rybakov #707United States2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKarl Poling · 248 places

Karl Poling

United States

Poling is a left-handed American player, born 4 August 1999. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 487; no reliable current injury, comeback, or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #459
Peak ranking: #487
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Alex Rybakov

United States

Structured player data lists Rybakov at No. 507, left-handed with a one-handed backhand, and 185 cm. A retirement is listed at the Cary Challenger in late June 2026, but the requested sources do not identify an active issue for Roehampton.

Current ranking: #707
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Two left-handers ranked 459 and 707 meet in the opening round of Fort Worth qualifying, and the edge is small: Rybakov serves better and has taken 10 of 13 first sets on hard courts, while Poling has pushed a top seed ranked No. 72 to a final-set tiebreak.

Rybakov is the likelier winner, but 1.55 for him to win and 1.55 for the opening set ask more than that form supports. Poling at 2.40 is the one price worth a look.

Context

Droguet, the top seed and world No. 72, needed 2h34 and a final-set tiebreak to beat Poling, who had entered the draw only as a lucky loser the day before. That is the strongest recent evidence that Poling can hold a top-75 opponent deep into a third set on outdoor hard courts, and it sits above anything in Rybakov's corresponding results against players ranked outside the top 400. The limitation is that Poling still lost the match from a set up, and he has since been beaten in straight sets by lower-ranked opposition, so the near-miss describes his ceiling rather than a settled level.
- Poling was added to the Saint-Tropez main draw as a lucky loser .
- Droguet won 6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4) in 2h34 .
- Droguet was the top seed and world No. 72 at the event.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest
The first set is where Rybakov's recent hard-court record is at its strongest.
That start is his clearest edge in this matchup and the part of the match where he has looked most comfortable. Poling has won eight of 15 first sets himself, so the gap is a lean rather than a gulf. A fast start from Rybakov would put Poling's long-match habit under early pressure.
- Rybakov's 13 hard-court matches, 28 July to 28 September 2026: 10 first sets won, 3 lost.
- First-set games across those 13 matches: 5.85 won to 3.92 lost per set.
- Only one of the 13 first sets reached a tiebreak.
Serving is the department where Rybakov's numbers sit well clear of his overall win-loss record.
Holding comfortably shortens the work he needs on return in a match where two similar overall records meet. In a qualifying set, one or two service games usually settle it, and this is the area where he has the stronger claim. Poling's 65.9% first-serve points won and 53.4% break-point save rate over his own 15 matches leave the smaller margin for error.
- Rybakov's last 15 matches: 555 of 772 first-serve points won (71.9%).
- Break points saved in that sample: 65 of 93 (69.9%).
- He averaged 5.9 aces and 2.2 double faults per match across those 15 matches.
Both players are outside the main draw at No. 459 and No. 707, so this is a qualifying-round match at the smallest Challenger tier on the calendar rather than a main-draw opportunity. Qualifying at this level usually requires two wins to reach the main draw, which shapes how much either player can gain from a single victory. The noon start on an outer court also means daytime heat and a quicker surface than the evening sessions, conditions that suit neither player's clay-leaning preference on paper.
- Fort Worth is an ATP 75 Challenger on the week 42 entry list for 2026.
- The Poling-Rybakov qualifying match is scheduled for 12pm on Court V5.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:29 · Europe/BucharestTennis.com Challenger Fort Worth match listingwww.tennis.com · 18 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Alex Rybakov

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

−9.5ppshort

Rybakov starts strongly and holds a clear opening-set record on this surface.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakov's stronger serving and better point and game shares give him a narrow edge in an otherwise even matchup.
- Rybakov wins 51.8% of total points on hard courts; Poling 49.2%.
- Rybakov wins 71.9% of first-serve points to Poling's 65.9% and saves 70.1% of break points to 53.4%.
- Rybakov holds 52.4% of games on this surface; Poling 49.1%.
- Both players are 7-8 across their recent hard-court samples, with Rybakov 6-7 in 13 current-surface matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in these samples run just past the line on average.
- Poling's first sets average 10.2 total games; Rybakov's 9.8.
- Combined first-set average is about 10.0 games.
- Poling has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined match length sits just above the line, with Poling's matches regularly running long.
- Poling's hard-court matches average 25.1 total games; Rybakov's 22.8.
- Weighted combined average is about 24.0 games.
- Poling's first sets average 10.2 games and second sets 10.1.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-set average sits just above the line with little separating the two.
- Poling's second sets average 10.1 total games; Rybakov's 9.3.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.75 games.
- Poling has four second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Rybakov starts strongly and holds a clear opening-set record on this surface.
- Rybakov has won 10 of 13 opening sets on hard courts.
- Rybakov's set-one game margin is +1.92 per set.
- Poling is 8-7 in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish a majority of matches in straight sets, and Rybakov has six 2-0 wins in 13.
- Poling played seven three-set matches in 15; Rybakov five in 13.
- Combined three-set rate is roughly 43%.
- Rybakov's matches average 2.38 sets; Poling's 2.47.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakov is marginally ahead in second sets, though the samples are close.
- Rybakov is 7-6 in second sets on hard courts.
- Poling is 7-8 in second sets.
- Rybakov's second-set game average is 4.77 won to 4.54 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' recent matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Poling had tiebreaks in seven of 15 hard-court matches.
- Rybakov had tiebreaks in three of 13.
- Combined tiebreak rate is about 35%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two ace rates add up below the line.
- Poling averages 2.5 aces per match on hard courts.
- Rybakov averages 5.4 aces per current-surface match.
- Combined ace average is about 7.9.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players keep double faults low enough to sit under the line.
- Poling averages 2.2 double faults per match.
- Rybakov averages 2.1 double faults per current-surface match.
- Combined double-fault average is about 4.3.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Karl Poling

7W 8L

6-3 6-1—Iker Urribarrens Ramirez

6-4 6-3#476Aidan Mchugh

3-6 6-3 6-2#511Patrick Zahraj

6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4)#72Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-6(8)#356Moez Echargui

6-2 6-1#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#824Nikola Slavic

6-4 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-3 6-2#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)—Nikita Filin

7-6(1) 6-4#866Axel Nefve

3-6 7-6(7) 6-1#697Thomas Fancutt

6-4 6-4#820Jesse Flores

6-2 6-4#636Aidan Kim

Alex Rybakov

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 6-3#431Luca Staeheli

7-5 6-3#764Matthew Forbes

1-6 6-3 6-4#408Ozan Baris

6-3 6-4#748Karue Sell

7-6(6) 6-3#620Ryan Seggerman

6-4 6-2#646Dan Martin

5-7 6-4 6-3#714Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#268Charles Broom

6-1 7-6(0)#544Fares Zakaria

6-2 3-6 6-1#307Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-2—Billy Blaydes

6-3 6-3#895Matthew Summers

0-6 6-3 7-6(3)#900Charlie Robertson

3-6 6-4 6-3#194Andre Ilagan

6-4 7-6(8)#364Tung-Lin Wu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KPKarl PolingPoling

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Alex RybakovRybakovAR

Alex Rybakov carries the stronger recent form — Karl Poling's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In70.7%—71.3%

1st Serve Won65.9%+6.0pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won54.8%+2.2pp52.6%

Aces / Match2.5+3.45.9

Double Faults / Match2.2—2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.9%+2.3pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.6%+3.6pp32.0%

Break Pts Saved53.4%+16.5pp69.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+2.7pp51.9%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

70.7%1st Serve In—71.3%

65.9%1st Serve Won+6.0pp71.9%

54.8%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp52.6%

2.5Aces / Match+3.45.9

2.2Double Faults / Match—2.2

Return · 0–1

35.9%Return Pts Won+2.3pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

35.6%Break Pts Converted+3.6pp32.0%

53.4%Break Pts Saved+16.5pp69.9%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+2.7pp51.9%