ChinaWTA NingboFinished

Predictions graded

Marie Bouzkova #26Czechia2Anastasia Zakharova #111Russia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-2Wed 21 Oct 2026, 05:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarie Bouzkova · 85 places

Marie Bouzkova

Czechia

Right-handed and 1.80m, Bouzkova reached career-high No. 21 in July 2026. Her official profile records 2026 titles in Bogota and Nottingham but does not publish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #21 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Anastasia Zakharova

Russia

Zakharova, 24, is right-handed and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 65 in April 2026. Her WTA biography lists Vladimir Zakharov as her coach.

Current ranking: #111
Peak ranking: #65 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 06:06 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-30 player against a lucky loser ranked 111 looks one-sided, but Bouzkova's 8-6 record in a 14-match hard-court sample that excludes one retirement, plus a two-hour opener, leaves this round-of-16 tie closer than the ranking gap suggests.

Bouzkova is still the likely winner, with a straight-sets finish the more probable shape, while Zakharova has a top-50 qualifying win here. At 1.22 for Bouzkova, 1.29 for her first set and 1.36 for a straight-sets finish, no quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Bouzkova had been drawn against a top-10 opponent; the replacement puts a player ranked 111 across the net and removes the second seed from her section entirely. Zakharova arrives with no main-draw match in Ningbo and a qualifying defeat two days earlier, so she has to find tour-level rhythm immediately. The counterweight is freshness: the bye gives her two clear days, while Bouzkova played and won a first round on Monday, so the change of opponent matters far more than the change in rest.
- Swiatek withdrew with a left thigh injury aggravated in the Wuhan semi-final and said rest was the right decision.
- Zakharova, a lucky loser, replaced her in the draw and advanced straight into the second round with a bye.
- Swiatek had been due to face Bouzkova in that second-round match before withdrawing.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:03 · Europe/BucharestNingbo round-of-16 previewwww.thestatszone.com · 20 Oct 2026
These are the only two completed matches Zakharova has played on the Ningbo courts this week, and they pull in opposite directions: a straight-sets win over a top-50 opponent, followed by a straight-sets loss to a player ranked 105 and a high error count. The recent result is the qualifying defeat, which is the better guide to how she is likely to start against a defender who extends rallies. Neither match was at main-draw level, so the evidence for her level in this round is a 1-1 qualifying record rather than a tour-level win.
- Zakharova beat Yuliia Starodubtseva 6-1 7-5 in the first qualifying round at Ningbo .
- She lost 3-6 3-6 to Polina Kudermetova in the final qualifying round, with 30 unforced errors.
- The Kudermetova match included a medical timeout for her opponent at 6-3 0-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Bouzkova has a completed main-draw win on these courts behind her, which Zakharova does not, and she needed two hours to get it in straight sets. That duration is worth noting for a player whose game is built on extending rallies: her first match was long even without dropping a set, and it came against an opponent carrying heavy qualifying mileage. The limitation is that the win itself was clean, so it supports readiness for the surface more than it flags any workload problem.
- Bouzkova beat Kamilla Rakhimova 6-4 6-4 in the Ningbo first round .
- The win took two hours and four minutes.
- Rakhimova had already won two matches in Ningbo, one lasting three hours 50 minutes.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:03 · Europe/Bucharest
That pattern makes a three-set match the outlier in her recent record, so a two-set finish is the natural shape to watch for here, whichever player wins. The caveat is the sample: 15 matches, including qualifying and lower-level opposition, is a small base and does not guarantee another straight-set result.
- Zakharova's 15-match hard-court sample runs from 4 August to 18 October 2026.
- She has seven 2-0 wins, seven 0-2 losses and one 1-2 defeat in that sample.
- Fourteen of the 15 matches finished in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marie Bouzkova

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Bouzkova has the higher ranking and more straight-set wins, while Zakharova has lost seven of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marie Bouzkova

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

−9.5ppshort

Bouzkova has the stronger first-set record and a clear advantage in set1 games won.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.36fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 73.5%

−6.5ppshort

Both players usually finish in straight sets, with Zakharova's matches averaging barely more than two sets.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Marie Bouzkova

1.29fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 77.5%

−13.5ppshort

Bouzkova holds a modest advantage in second-set wins and games, matching her overall ranking advantage.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Marie Bouzkova 2-0

1.60fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 62.5%

−12.5ppshort

Bouzkova's straight-set wins and Zakharova's seven 0-2 losses point to a two-set Bouzkova win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Bouzkova has the higher ranking and more straight-set wins, while Zakharova has lost seven of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Bouzkova is ranked 26th, 85 places above Zakharova at 111th.
- Bouzkova is 8-6 on hard in her last 15, with seven 2-0 wins.
- Zakharova is 7-8 on hard and has lost seven matches 0-2.
- Bouzkova has won two 2026 titles and reached a career-high No. 21.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's recent wins were narrow enough that Zakharova can stay within six games.
- Zakharova's recent hard-court margins: -6, +7, -7, -6, +10, -7.
- She covered +5.5 in two of those six matches.
- Bouzkova's recent margins were +4, -5, -1, +4, -2.
- Bouzkova has only one 2-1 win in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAnastasia Zakharova +5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's first sets regularly reach double figures, and Zakharova's average is close to the line.
- Bouzkova's set1 total averages 10.36 games.
- Zakharova's set1 total averages 9.33 games.
- Bouzkova has five first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Zakharova has two first-set tiebreaks in 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zakharova's straight-set results often finish quickly, and a Bouzkova 2-0 win can stay under the line.
- Zakharova's hard-court matches average 18.93 games.
- Bouzkova's hard-court matches average 23.29 games.
- Zakharova has seven 0-2 losses and seven 2-0 wins in 15.
- Bouzkova has seven 2-0 wins in 14.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set averages sit near the line, with Bouzkova slightly above it.
- Bouzkova's set2 total averages 9.93 games.
- Zakharova's set2 total averages 9.13 games.
- Bouzkova has two second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Zakharova has two second-set tiebreaks in 15.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zakharova's recent losses were by wide margins, but Bouzkova's own recent wins were mostly narrow.
- Zakharova's recent hard-court margins: -6, +7, -7, -6, +10, -7.
- She covered +3.5 in two of those six matches.
- Bouzkova's recent margins were +4, -5, -1, +4, -2.
- Zakharova is 7-8 on hard.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAnastasia Zakharova +3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Bouzkova has the stronger first-set record and a clear advantage in set1 games won.
- Bouzkova is 10-4 in first sets on hard.
- Zakharova is 8-7 in first sets on hard.
- Bouzkova's set1 games average is 6.0 to 4.36.
- Zakharova's set1 games average is 5.0 to 4.33.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both players usually finish in straight sets, with Zakharova's matches averaging barely more than two sets.
- Bouzkova's hard-court matches average 2.29 sets.
- Zakharova's hard-court matches average 2.07 sets.
- Bouzkova has seven 2-0 wins in 14 matches.
- Zakharova has seven 2-0 wins and seven 0-2 losses in 15.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Bouzkova holds a modest advantage in second-set wins and games, matching her overall ranking advantage.
- Bouzkova is 8-6 in second sets on hard.
- Zakharova is 7-8 in second sets on hard.
- Bouzkova's set2 games average is 5.07 to 4.86.
- Zakharova's set2 games average is 4.6 to 4.53.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.60
The read
Bouzkova's straight-set wins and Zakharova's seven 0-2 losses point to a two-set Bouzkova win.
- Bouzkova has seven 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court matches.
- Zakharova has lost seven of 15 hard-court matches 0-2.
- Bouzkova's set1 record is 10-4 on hard.
- Zakharova's set1 record is 8-7.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMarie Bouzkova 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zakharova's short matches make a tiebreak less likely, even with Bouzkova's tighter sets.
- Zakharova has three matches with a tiebreak in 15.
- Bouzkova has six matches with a tiebreak in 14.
- Zakharova's total games average is 18.93.
- Bouzkova's total games average is 23.29.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Marie Bouzkova: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Marie Bouzkova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marie Bouzkova15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Tereza Valentova won

Missed

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·82%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

82%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

78%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·62%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

Marie Bouzkova to win

62%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Marie Bouzkova

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#67Kamilla Rakhimova

1-6 6-1 6-1#11Maja Chwalinska

6-1 2-0 ret.#54Clara Tauson

7-6(3) 4-6 7-5#22Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-4#41Kimberly Birrell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#49Sonay Kartal

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#9Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-2#117Harriet Dart

6-2 6-2#157Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 6-2#5Cori Gauff

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-4#107Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(4) 7-5#89Taylor Townsend

2-6 6-4 7-6(6)#88Tereza Valentova

7-5 6-4#161Carol Young Suh Lee

Anastasia Zakharova

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#105Polina Kudermetova 6-1 7-5#50Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-3 6-2#63Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 7-6(3)#14Belinda Bencic

6-0 6-2#684Yushan Shao

6-4 6-1#24Jelena Ostapenko

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#19Naomi Osaka

6-4 6-3#323Kylie Collins

7-6(6) 6-0#72Anna Blinkova

6-4 6-2#107Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-1#98Hanne Vandewinkel

6-2 6-1#279Katrina Scott

7-5 6-2#295Ayana Akli

6-4 6-4#209Fiona Crawley

6-1 6-4#120Tatiana Prozorova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMarie BouzkovaBouzkova

Last 15

5–1

9 core stats · 3 even

Anastasia ZakharovaZakharovaAZ

Marie Bouzkova carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Zakharova's route runs through return.

Serve · 2–0 · 3 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1567.2%—67.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.5%+5.8pp61.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1544.8%—45.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.7+1.21.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.1—3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1544.5%+1.6pp46.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1553.3%+10.8pp42.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1557.0%+4.0pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.2%+1.1pp51.1%

Serve · 2–0 · 3 even

67.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—67.9%

67.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.8pp61.7%

44.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—45.2%

2.7Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.21.5

3.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—3.1

Return · 0–1

44.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp46.1%

Pressure · 2–0

53.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+10.8pp42.5%

57.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+4.0pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp51.1%