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Predictions graded

Kamilla Rakhimova #69Uzbekistan0Marie Bouzkova #28Czechia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 19 Oct 2026, 09:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarie Bouzkova · 41 places

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #69
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Marie Bouzkova

Czechia

Right-handed and 1.80m, Bouzkova reached career-high No. 21 in July 2026. Her official profile records 2026 titles in Bogota and Nottingham but does not publish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #28
Peak ranking: #21 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 17:24 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension is freshness against form: Rakhimova has played roughly five hours of qualifying, including a three-hour-50-minute final on 18 October, while Bouzkova has been idle since 14 October and owns both previous meetings.

Bouzkova shapes as the likelier winner, but 1.35 on her gives nothing back; the two prices that hold up are Rakhimova at 3.2 for the match and 2.6 to take the opening set.

Context

Roughly five hours of tennis across 17 and, including a three-hour-50-minute final, is the heaviest load in this pairing, and it comes the day before a first-round match against a direct entry. Bouzkova has not played since 14 October, so the starting positions on freshness are clearly uneven. The night slot, fourth on Grandstand, leaves Rakhimova a shorter recovery window if the earlier matches run long. Duration alone does not decide a hard-court match, and she did close out that marathon in straight games at the end, so the effect is on how well she can sustain a long first set rather than a reason to expect collapse.
- The qualifying final against Prozorova ran 3h50m and was described as a candidate for the longest match on the tour this season.
- Prozorova needed a physio at 5-5 in the first set before Rakhimova closed out the third set.
- Rakhimova was the eighth seed in the qualifying draw; six main-draw places were filled through qualifying.
- The match is the last of four scheduled on Grandstand on 19 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 17:22 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the only direct evidence of how the two match up, and it was one-sided on the same surface, with Bouzkova taking 12 of 16 games in 83 minutes. Bouzkova's flat, early-strike returning against a server of Rakhimova's height is the pattern that meeting tested, and there is nothing in the record since to test it again. The limitation is age and setting: it was a November 2024 match at a smaller event, before Rakhimova's 2026 hard-court wins over Krejcikova, Fernandez and Kenin, so it describes a matchup rather than a current gap.
- Bouzkova won both sets without conceding more than two games in any of them.
- The match lasted 83 minutes on an outdoor hard court.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 17:22 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple match recorden.tennistemple.com · 18 Oct 2026Tennis.com Ningbo match pagewww.tennis.com · 18 Oct 2026
Both players are playing for a second-round match against a top-two seed who will arrive with a bye and no matches on these courts, so the reward for winning is a step up in class against a fresher opponent. That shapes the occasion more than the tactics: a first-round win here converts into a headline match rather than a routine second round. The staging detail also matters for expectations, since a 28-player draw with four byes means a single win is worth a quarter-final shot. It does not change how either player should approach the opener, only what the opener is worth.
- The main draw starts 19 October and the top four seeds all begin in the second round.
- Swiatek is seeded second and waits on the winner of this first-round match.
- Six of the 28 places were filled through qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 17:22 · Europe/BucharestRallyHer Ningbo draw and schedulerallyher.com · 17 Oct 2026Tennis.com Ningbo match pagewww.tennis.com · 18 Oct 2026
Rakhimova's best evidence against the head-to-head is that she pushed their first hard-court meeting into a tiebreak.
Bouzkova has won both meetings without dropping a set, but the April 2024 match shows Rakhimova can stay with her deep into a set on hard courts. That is the counterweight to the one-sided Nanchang result and supports a tight opening set here, even with the ranking gap favouring Bouzkova over three sets.
- Bouzkova beat Rakhimova 6-4 7-6(2) in their hard-court meeting on 6 April 2024.
- The second set went to a tiebreak, taken 7-6(2), the only set either player has dropped in the head-to-head.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

−4.0ppshort

Bouzkova's straight-set wins and Rakhimova's heavy workload point to a shorter match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova is higher-ranked, owns the head-to-head and is far fresher, so she is the more likely winner.
- Bouzkova is ranked 28th, 41 places above Rakhimova.
- Bouzkova won both head-to-head matches in straight sets.
- Rakhimova played a three-hour-50-minute qualifying final the day before this match.
- Seven of Bouzkova's eight hard-court wins in this sample came in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's game share and recent wins suggest she can stay within five games even if she loses.
- Bouzkova's second head-to-head win was by only three games.
- Rakhimova has won 51.2% of her hard-court games.
- She has won four of her last six completed matches.
- Bouzkova lost her last match in three sets.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKamilla Rakhimova +4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set Bouzkova win is the most common pattern and would likely keep the total below 24 games.
- Bouzkova has won seven of eight hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Rakhimova has lost 0-2 four times in 15 hard-court matches.
- Bouzkova's matches average 2.29 sets.
- Rakhimova's matches average 2.4 sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Bouzkova's straight-set wins and Rakhimova's heavy workload point to a shorter match.
- Bouzkova has won seven of eight hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Rakhimova has lost 0-2 four times in 15 hard-court matches.
- Bouzkova's matches average 2.29 sets.
- Rakhimova's matches average 2.4 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's first-set record and head-to-head edge make her the likelier early leader.
- Bouzkova won 10 of 14 first sets on hard courts.
- Rakhimova won 10 of 15 first sets.
- Bouzkova won the opening set in both head-to-head matches.
- Bouzkova has five first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's second-set record is better than Rakhimova's, and Rakhimova's recent workload may weigh on her.
- Bouzkova won 8 of 14 second sets.
- Rakhimova lost 9 of 15 second sets.
- Bouzkova won the second set in both head-to-head matches.
- Rakhimova's second-set record is her weaker split.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in these players' recent matches were decided without a tiebreak, especially second sets.
- Rakhimova had six tiebreak matches in 15.
- Bouzkova had six in 14.
- Only three of 29 second sets in the sample needed a tiebreak.
- Bouzkova has won seven of eight in straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Marie Bouzkova: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Marie Bouzkova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marie Bouzkova15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Tereza Valentova won

Missed

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·82%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

82%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

78%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·62%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

Marie Bouzkova to win

62%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-2 6-2Kamilla Rakhimova#69vMarie Bouzkova#28Nov 1, 2024

L6-4 7-6(2)Kamilla Rakhimova#69vMarie Bouzkova#28Apr 6, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kamilla Rakhimova

9W 6L

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#117Tatiana Prozorova 6-2 6-4#103Dayana Yastremska

7-6(2) 6-1#217Han Shi

6-0 6-3#125Sofia Kenin

6-1 7-5#11Iva Jovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#25Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#129Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#88Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#102Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#100Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#46Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#63Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#94Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 5-7 6-1#35Maria Sakkari

Marie Bouzkova

9W 6L

1-6 6-1 6-1#22Maja Chwalinska

6-1 2-0 ret.#53Clara Tauson

7-6(3) 4-6 7-5#23Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-4#40Kimberly Birrell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#170Sonay Kartal

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#9Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-2#113Harriet Dart

6-2 6-2#158Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 6-2#5Cori Gauff

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#11Iva Jovic

6-2 6-4#106Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(4) 7-5#89Taylor Townsend

2-6 6-4 7-6(6)#62Tereza Valentova

7-5 6-4#140Carol Young Suh Lee

7-5 7-5#99Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KRKamilla RakhimovaRakhimova

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Marie BouzkovaBouzkovaMB

Marie Bouzkova carries the stronger recent form — Kamilla Rakhimova's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1554.5%+12.8pp67.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1561.9%+5.8pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.0%—45.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.1+0.42.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.62.5 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1545.4%+1.5pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1547.5%+1.2pp48.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.8%—58.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.1%+2.0pp52.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

54.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+12.8pp67.3%

61.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp67.7%

46.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—45.9%

2.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.42.5

5.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.5 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

45.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.5pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

47.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp48.7%

58.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—58.2%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp52.1%

Kamilla Rakhimova

Marie Bouzkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova

Under 2.5

Marie Bouzkova 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Kamilla Rakhimova

Marie Bouzkova

Stat Battle