Liudmila Samsonova #41Russia11 – 2Marie Bouzkova #23Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Bouzkova's dominant grass form (8-1 in 2026, 7-match win streak) and Samsonova's severe struggles in deciding sets and recent losses give Bouzkova a clear edge on this surface.

• Bouzkova is 8-1 on grass in 2026, including a Nottingham title; Samsonova is 3-3 on grass this year.
• Samsonova is 0-9 in three-set matches in 2026 and has lost 6 of her last 7 matches overall.
• Bouzkova has won 7 consecutive matches on grass, dropping only 2 sets in that span.
• H2H: Samsonova leads 3-2, but Bouzkova won their only grass meeting (2019) and Samsonova's wins came on hard/clay.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches and their head-to-head history trend toward longer contests, supporting a total games over 21.5.

• Samsonova's last 5 matches have averaged 22.2 games per match.
• Bouzkova's last 5 matches have averaged 21.6 games per match.
• H2H matches have averaged 22.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players and their competitive H2H suggest a tight opening set, likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• Samsonova's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games.
• Bouzkova's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.8 games.
• In their H2H, first sets have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in their matches often remain competitive, and recent form suggests a close set, though confidence is lower due to variability.

• Samsonova's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.8 games.
• Bouzkova's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.4 games.
• H2H second sets have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Samsonova's tendency to go to three sets and the competitive H2H history make a deciding set likely.

• Samsonova has played 3 sets in 5 of her last 7 matches.
• Bouzkova has played 3 sets in 3 of her last 7 matches.
• H2H: 3 of 5 matches went to a deciding set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Samsonova's powerful serve on grass should generate enough aces to push the combined total over 7.5, especially if the match goes three sets.

• Samsonova averages 6.0 aces per match in her career, with a higher ace rate on grass.
• Bouzkova averages 2.7 aces per match, but Samsonova's ace count often pushes totals higher.
• In their H2H, total aces have averaged 5.8 per match, but Samsonova's recent grass matches have seen higher ace counts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and their H2H history shows high double fault totals, suggesting over 6.5 is plausible.

• Samsonova averages 5.2 double faults per match in her career.
• Bouzkova averages 3.8 double faults per match.
• In their H2H, total double faults have averaged 9.0 per match.