KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Facundo Diaz Acosta #71Argentina0Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Wed 21 Oct 2026, 09:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFacundo Diaz Acosta · 57 places

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

The left-hander lists clay as his preferred surface and reached a career-high No. 47 in April 2024. A multi-month injury absence preceded his 2026 return to competition.

Current ranking: #71
Peak ranking: #47 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Oct 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili arrives on a three-match winning run in Almaty, all in straight sets, against a left-hander who is 1-3 on hard in his last four.

The likelier outcome is a Basilashvili win, most probably in straight sets. At 2.20, Basilashvili 2-0 is the one price worth taking; 1.50 for the match win and 1.50 for the second set ask more than the evidence gives, and 1.55 for the first set offers no clear edge.

Context

The straight-sets win over a former Grand Slam champion is a tour-level scalp that his No. 128 ranking does not reflect, and it came on the same indoor court where this second-round match is played. Čilić, 38 and ranked No. 84, is a modest benchmark at this stage of his career, so the result sets a floor for Basilashvili's week rather than proving he can repeat that level across a fourth match in five days.
- Basilashvili beat Marin Čilić 6-2, 7-5 in the Almaty Open first round .
- He won six of the last seven games of the match.
- No Georgian player had previously won a match at the Almaty Open.
ReportedSources checked 20 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Beating a top-50 seed is the best hard-court result of a recent run that had otherwise been built almost entirely on clay, and it gives him a level of match sharpness on this court that no practice week can supply. The three-set duration and the lost opening tiebreak mean he arrives with more court time behind him than a straight-set win would imply. One win over a compatriot ranked 21 places above him does not settle whether his clay-built game transfers indoors, so it is a positive signal rather than a changed surface profile.
- Díaz Acosta beat eighth seed Thiago Agustín Tirante 6-7(3), 6-1, 6-4 .
- The match lasted two hours 21 minutes on indoor hard court.
- Tirante was ranked No. 50, twenty-one places above Díaz Acosta.
ReportedSources checked 20 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 19 Oct 2026
Four matches in five days is the heaviest load of the two, and the contrast is with Díaz Acosta, who has played once since arriving, a two-hour-21-minute three-setter on the same day as Basilashvili's first-round win. Because all four wins came in straight sets, his accumulated court time is lighter than the match count suggests, and a rest day separates the first round from this one. The workload is therefore a caution rather than a demonstrated problem, and there is no evidence yet of it showing in his results.
- Basilashvili beat Taro Daniel 6-2, 7-5 in the first qualifying round on 17 October 2026.
- He beat Adam Walton 6-4, 7-6(4) in the qualifying final on 18 October 2026.
- He then beat Marin Čilić 6-2, 7-5 in the first round .
- He has won all four matches in Almaty in straight sets.
ReportedSources checked 20 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 19 Oct 2026
The 34-year-old has beaten what was in front of him and lost only to a seed playing well above this level.
The five wins since 5 October came against opponents ranked between 84 and 203, so the run is real but earned at a modest level. Davidovich Fokina is the one top-tier test in the sample, and Basilashvili took a set before going down. For this second round it means the form is genuine without being proof he handles a step up.
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No. 13) beat Basilashvili 6-4, 4-6, 3-6 on 28 September 2026.
- Basilashvili's other five listed matches since 5 October 2026 were wins.
- Those wins came against opponents ranked No. 203, 197, 179, 97 and 84.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nikoloz Basilashvili

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Basilashvili has been much more dependable on hard courts lately, while Diaz Acosta's hard-court results have been poor.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Basilashvili has been much more dependable on hard courts lately, while Diaz Acosta's hard-court results have been poor.
- Basilashvili's hard-court set sample covers 13 matches: 10 wins, with 8 of them in straight sets
- Diaz Acosta is 1-3 on hard in his last four matches, winning 44.7% of games and 48.3% of points
- Most of Basilashvili's hard-court wins came against opponents ranked between 84 and 203
- Diaz Acosta's 11-4 overall record leans heavily on clay, where three of his recent wins were played
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' hard-court game totals sit right around the line, with Basilashvili's straightforward wins pulling it down.
- Basilashvili's hard-court matches average 23.15 total games
- His set-one average is 9.69 games and set-two average is 11.08
- Diaz Acosta's hard-court matches average 24 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance56%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Basilashvili has started hard-court matches strongly, while Diaz Acosta has consistently lost opening sets.
- Basilashvili won the first set in 10 of 13 hard-court matches
- Diaz Acosta lost the first set in all three hard-court set-sample matches
- Diaz Acosta's first-set average is 4.67 games won against 6.67 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have usually finished in straight sets, with Basilashvili especially quick.
- Basilashvili's hard-court scorelines were straight sets in 10 of 13 matches
- Diaz Acosta's hard-court set sample produced two 0-2 losses in three matches
- Basilashvili's average sets per match on hard is 2.23
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Basilashvili's second-set record on hard is strong and slightly better than a coin flip in games.
- Basilashvili won the second set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches
- Diaz Acosta won the second set in 1 of 3 hard-court set-sample matches
- Basilashvili's set-two average is 6.15 games won against 4.92 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With most matches expected to finish in straight sets and Basilashvili's sets often lopsided, a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- Basilashvili had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard-court matches
- Only 1 of his 13 matches had a first-set tiebreak
- Under 2.5 sets is estimated at 64, leaving little room for tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Nikoloz Basilashvili: 4/10 recent winner projections matched

4 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Nikoloz Basilashvili matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nikoloz Basilashvili10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili won

Matched

20 Jul·ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Tiago Torres won

Missed

7 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·55%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

55%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Missed

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

62%probability

Elias Ymer won

Missed

Previous match context available

Facundo Diaz Acosta

11W 4L

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#50Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-2 7-6(6)#129Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 6-2#52Nuno Borges

5-7 6-2 6-3#368Daniel Elahi Galan

6-2 6-1#162Dusan Lajovic

4-6 6-3 7-6(1)#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-5 6-2#122Sebastian Ofner

6-1 7-5#232Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 2-6 6-2#211Pol Martin Tiffon

6-4 7-5 6-7(7) 6-1#46Quentin Halys

6-1 6-4#270Mili Poljicak

6-2 6-3#142Vilius Gaubas

6-2 4-6 6-1#177Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 7-6(3)#329Francesco Forti

6-4 6-2#373Tommaso Compagnucci

Nikoloz Basilashvili

10W 5L

6-2 7-5#84Marin Cilic 6-4 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton 6-2 7-5#179Taro Daniel

6-3 2-2 ret.#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#135Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#597Naoya Honda

6-3 7-6(1)#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#56Jaime Faria

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFacundo Diaz AcostaAcosta

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashviliNB

Facundo Diaz Acosta carries the stronger recent form — Nikoloz Basilashvili's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In71.1%+13.8pp57.3%

1st Serve Won70.0%+6.6pp76.6%

2nd Serve Won57.0%+2.0pp55.0%

Aces / Match2.9+5.88.7

Double Faults / Match1.71.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.5%+2.0pp38.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.8%+8.6pp36.2%

Break Pts Saved69.1%+6.1pp63.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+0.8pp52.3%

Serve · 3–2

71.1%1st Serve In+13.8pp57.3%

70.0%1st Serve Won+6.6pp76.6%

57.0%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp55.0%

2.9Aces / Match+5.88.7

1.7Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

40.5%Return Pts Won+2.0pp38.5%

Pressure · 2–0

44.8%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp36.2%

69.1%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp63.0%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+0.8pp52.3%

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili 2-0

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stat Battle