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Predictions graded

Ugo Blanchet #305France1Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #152Norway2

Sets 6-3 · 1-6 · 3-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 153 places

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Structured profile lists him at No. 152 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

A home wildcard ranked No. 305 against the No. 152 player, a day after that opponent's Roanne semifinal: Budkov Kjaer is the likelier winner, but not by the margin the odds imply.

At 1.5 to win, 1.55 for the first set and 1.45 for under 2.5 sets, none of the reviewed prices offers anything.

Context

The Roanne quarterfinal is the clearest recent measure of Budkov Kjaer's level against tour-standard opposition: he took apart a top-100 player, with only a second-set tiebreak keeping the score respectable. That week was played on the same indoor hard courts used in Lyon, so surface acclimatisation is not a variable and his four wins in five days are directly transferable evidence. The qualification is timing: the Saturday semifinal leaves under a day before this match, and Martineau's 7-5 7-6(4) win shows his margins across the week stayed close. Gaston's ranking and Martineau's lower ranking both sit outside the top 100, so the run confirms form rather than a proven tour-level ceiling.
- Budkov Kjaer beat Jakub Paul 6-4 7-5 and Moise Kouame 6-4 6-2 in Roanne.
- He beat Hugo Gaston 6-1 7-6(7) in the Roanne quarterfinal.
- Matteo Martineau beat him 7-5 7-6(4) in the semifinal .
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Five matches in five days in Roanne, four of them wins, are the most current read on Blanchet at Challenger level, and the sequence from qualifying through a main-draw win shows he can string results together indoors. The Kym defeat is the counterweight: 6-1 6-3 in the round of 16 against a player ranked No. 249, well below the standard of the opponent he meets here. Schedule works in his favour, with his last match three days before this one against an opponent who played a semifinal on Saturday. Whether that extra preparation converts into a competitive scoreline is untested, since his only matches this month against higher-ranked opposition were that loss and a three-set defeat to Clement Chidekh.
- Blanchet beat Nicolas Tepmahc 6-2 6-1 and Daniel De Jonge 6-4 6-3 in Roanne qualifying.
- He beat Tom Paris 7-6(5) 6-3 in the Roanne main draw.
- Jerome Kym beat him 6-1 6-3 in the round of 16 .
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest
The serve is the steadiest part of Budkov Kjaer's recent record.
Nearly seven in ten first serves landed and almost seven in ten of those points were won, which gives him a reliable platform to work from. His total points won, though, sits just under half, so the serve is solid rather than overwhelming. Against a lower-ranked opponent it should keep him in control of service games, but it does not suggest he will blow the match open.
- Last 15 aggregate over 14 matches: 720 of 1,077 first serves in (66.9%).
- 495 of 720 first-serve points won (68.8%) across the same 14 matches.
- 1,065 of 2,137 total points won (49.8%).
- 195 of 371 games won (52.6%) over 15 matches.
A first edition means neither player has any prior results or reference points at this venue, so the qualifying draw is purely a gateway into an unfamiliar tour-level event. The stakes are a main-draw place alongside the top of the field, and the reward is immediate: two wins would put the winner on court with players ranked far above both. Because the event follows the Roanne Challenger in the same region, its qualifying draw is filled with players who were competing there last week, which is exactly how both of these men arrived.
- The Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is a new ATP 250 in Lyon played 18-25 October 2026.
- The qualifying event is staged at the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes venue, with matches on Court Central.
- Cobolli, Fritz, Vacherot and Paul head the main draw.
- Humbert meets Moutet in a first-round main-draw match.
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69%

−5.0ppshort

Straight-set finishes are more common for both players, at 64% of their hard matches.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.50fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 66.7%

−3.7ppshort

Budkov Kjaer has the higher ranking, better serve numbers and stronger recent wins, while Blanchet's home wildcard is the main counterweight.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Budkov Kjaer has the better first-set record and starts matches more strongly.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Budkov Kjaer has the higher ranking, better serve numbers and stronger recent wins, while Blanchet's home wildcard is the main counterweight.
- Budkov Kjaer is ranked 152, while Blanchet is ranked 305.
- Budkov Kjaer is 8-6 on hard in his last 14 matches; Blanchet is 7-7.
- Budkov Kjaer has won 52.5% of games and 68.8% of first-serve points on current hard courts.
- Budkov Kjaer beat No. 89 Hugo Gaston recently; Blanchet's recent wins came against players ranked 465 or lower.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer has the higher match win chance, but his average game margin is small, so covering by two games is less secure.
- Budkov Kjaer's current-hard games record is 179-162, a +17 margin over 14 matches.
- His recent game margins were -3, +6, +6, +4, -1 and +7.
- Four of his last six matches had a margin of at least two games.
- Budkov Kjaer won 8 of 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNicolai Budkov Kjaer -1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Budkov Kjaer's matches run longer on average, but Blanchet's are shorter, leaving the line close to the middle.
- Budkov Kjaer's hard matches average 24.4 total games; Blanchet's average 22.5.
- Budkov Kjaer averages 10.4 games in set1 and 10.2 in set2.
- Blanchet averages 9.6 games in set1 and 9.4 in set2.
- Both players have a 36% three-set rate.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set finishes are more common for both players, at 64% of their hard matches.
- Both players average 2.36 sets per hard match.
- Five of 14 hard matches went to a third set for each player.
- Budkov Kjaer's scorelines include six 2-0 wins; Blanchet's include six 2-0 wins.
- Both have a 36% three-set rate in the sample.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Budkov Kjaer has the better first-set record and starts matches more strongly.
- Budkov Kjaer has won 9 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Blanchet has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Budkov Kjaer averages 5.71 games won and 4.71 lost in set1.
- Blanchet averages 5.07 games won and 4.57 lost in set1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanchet has the better second-set record, but Budkov Kjaer's overall level gives him a slight edge.
- Budkov Kjaer has won 8 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Blanchet has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Budkov Kjaer averages 5.14 games won and 5.07 lost in set2.
- Blanchet averages 5.21 games won and 4.21 lost in set2.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Blanchet has had only three tiebreak matches in 14, and most of his sets finish without one.
- Blanchet had a tiebreak in 3 of 14 hard matches.
- Budkov Kjaer had a tiebreak in 7 of 14 hard matches.
- Blanchet's set1 and set2 each had one tiebreak.
- Both players have a 36% three-set rate.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: 5/12 recent winner projections matched

5 of 12 comparable winner projections favouring Nicolai Budkov Kjaer matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#269Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

65%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Missed

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·58%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#118Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

58%probability

Andrea Pellegrino won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1-3#137Otto Virtanen

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·62%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1-3#137Otto Virtanen

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

62%probability

Otto Virtanen won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#209Matej Dodig

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·58%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#209Matej Dodig

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

58%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-1#237Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsNicolai Budkov Kjaer to win·72%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#121Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-1#237Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer to win

72%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ugo Blanchet

8W 7L

6-1 6-3#249Jerome Kym

7-6(5) 6-3#676Tom Paris

6-4 6-3#585Daniel De Jonge

6-2 6-1#635Nicolas Tepmahc

6-4 3-6 6-2#146Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#465Viktor Durasovic

6-4 3-6 6-4#178Daniil Glinka

4-1 ret.#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-6(4)#241Billy Harris

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#380Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 6-3#245Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#348Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#107Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

9W 6L

7-5 7-6(4)#272Matteo Martineau 6-1 7-6(7)#89Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-2#201Moise Kouame

6-4 7-5#869Jakub Paul

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-2#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

3-6 6-3 7-5#241Billy Harris

4-6 6-4 6-4#420Jie Cui

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#356Moez Echargui

6-1 7-6(7)#509Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 6-4#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-1#149Mark Lajal

7-5 6-4#117Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#238Maks Kasnikowski

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

UBUgo BlanchetBlanchet

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolai Budkov KjaerKjaerNK

Ugo Blanchet carries the stronger recent form — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.8%+11.1pp66.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.1%+5.3pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1558.1%+8.2pp49.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.5+0.54.0

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.70.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.3%—37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1537.1%+5.5pp42.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.3%+1.2pp61.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.5%+1.7pp49.8%

Serve · 4–1

55.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+11.1pp66.9%

74.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp68.8%

58.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.2pp49.9%

4.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.54.0

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

36.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

37.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp42.6%

62.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp61.1%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp49.8%