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Predictions graded

Francesco Passaro #229Italy2Matej Dodig #174Croatia1

Sets 5-7 · 6-1 · 6-4Sat 17 Oct 2026, 11:45 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatej Dodig · 55 places

Francesco Passaro

Italy

Italian right-hander from Perugia whose career-high singles ranking is No. 89, reached in February 2025. Official ITF profile data lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #229
Peak ranking: #89 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #174
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Two eight-match winning runs collide for a place in the Maia final, with Dodig's 11-1 clay record against a Passaro who came from a set down to beat top seed Trungelliti.

Dodig's higher ranking makes him the likelier winner, yet their one completed meeting went Passaro's way in three sets. Dodig's 1.6 price asks him to win about two matches in three, more than that evidence supports. No quoted price here is worth backing.

Context

Both players spent the previous week winning a Challenger title on clay and have carried that form into Maia, so neither arrives cold or short of clay-court rhythm. Because the title week and the streak are identical for both, it removes the usual adaptation gap without separating them, leaving the semifinal to be shaped by how each handles the accumulated workload. That shared cost is a reason for caution on both sides rather than an edge to either.
- Passaro won the Palermo Challenger, his fourth Challenger title.
- Dodig won the Braga Challenger, his third Challenger title.
- Both players entered the Maia semifinals on eight-match winning runs.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Trungelliti was the highest-ranked player in the field and had control of the match at a set and a break, so Passaro's recovery is a live gauge of his current level rather than a routine win. It followed his Palermo title and marks him as the more match-tested player in this pairing at Challenger level. The limitation is that the match was settled by a final-set tiebreak, so the margin was narrow.
- Passaro def. Trungelliti 2-6 7-5 7-6(5) in the Maia quarter-final .
- Trungelliti was the top seed and ranked No. 90; Passaro was ranked No. 229.
- The win put Passaro into a second consecutive ATP Challenger semifinal.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Only one completed match exists between them, and Passaro won it after dropping the opening set. That match is more than a year old and predates Dodig's current clay run, so it argues against treating the ranking gap as decisive rather than settling this semi-final. A single match cannot separate two players who are both unbeaten this week.
- Passaro won the only completed head-to-head 4-6 6-1 6-2 on 20 July 2025.
- It is the sole head-to-head entry in the match record, a sample of one match.
Dodig's set-level clay record is the strongest single item in this semi-final: eleven wins in twelve, seven without dropping a set, and a second set won ten times. Passaro needed three sets in his quarter-final, so Dodig reads as the likelier winner in ordinary play. The limit is that no serve or return data is available for the same window, and the pair have met only once.
- Dodig's clay record from 5 September to 16 October 2026 is 11-1 across 12 completed matches; two retirements were excluded.
- He won 2-0 seven times and 2-1 four times, losing once in three sets.
- He won the second set in 10 of 12 clay matches, averaging 5.75 games won to 3.25 lost in that set.
- Across those 12 clay matches he averaged 22.4 total games and 2.42 sets per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Matej Dodig

1.60fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 62.5%

−9.5ppshort

Dodig has the higher ranking and the stronger clay record in this window, with a competitive showing against an elite opponent behind him.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Dodig has the higher ranking and the stronger clay record in this window, with a competitive showing against an elite opponent behind him.
- 11-2 in last 15, 11-1 on clay in 12 matches
- Ranked No. 174, ahead of Passaro at No. 229
- Took world No. 2 Zverev to 6-4 7-6(3) in Davis Cup in September
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatej DodigEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Passaro's quick first sets pull the combined figure below the line, and first-set ties are uncommon for both.
- Passaro's first sets average 9.09 total games
- Dodig's first-set average is 9.67 games
- Passaro's first sets produced only one tiebreak in 11 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' recent clay matches sit right around the line, and a competitive semi-final tends to push slightly longer.
- Passaro averages 24.2 total games per clay match
- Dodig averages 22.4 total games per clay match
- Both average over 2.4 sets per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Passaro's second sets are the longest phase of his matches, which nudges the combined figure over the line.
- Passaro's second sets average 10.27 total games
- Dodig's second sets average 9.0 total games
- Passaro had 4 second-set tiebreaks in 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have finished a majority of recent clay wins without dropping a set, so a straight-sets outcome is the more likely shape.
- Dodig won 2-0 in 7 of 12 clay matches
- Passaro won 2-0 in 5 of 11 clay matches
- Combined straight-sets share close to half of recent clay matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig has the better first-set record in this window and starts matches more reliably.
- Dodig won the opening set in 9 of 12 clay matches
- Dodig averaged 5.67 games won to 4.0 lost in first sets
- Passaro lost the opening set 4 of 11 times on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's second-set numbers are very strong, winning ten of twelve on clay.
- Dodig won the second set in 10 of 12 clay matches
- Dodig averaged 5.75 games won to 3.25 lost in second sets
- Passaro lost the second set 3 of 11 times on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMatej DodigEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's recent clay matches have mostly avoided tiebreaks, and his decisive set wins limit long sets.
- Dodig's clay matches included a tiebreak only 3 of 12 times
- Passaro's clay matches included a tiebreak 5 of 11 times
- Both players often win sets by multiple breaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Matej Dodig: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Matej Dodig matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Matej Dodig5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

11 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#208Matej Dodig2-1#235Henri Squire

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#208Matej Dodig2-1#235Henri Squire

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

10 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio0-2#208Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·55%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio0-2#208Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

55%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

8 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#265Michele Ribecai1-2#208Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#265Michele Ribecai1-2#208Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

Matej Dodig won

Matched

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#389Carlos Sanchez Jover2-0#199Matej Dodig

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#389Carlos Sanchez Jover2-0#199Matej Dodig

Matej Dodig to win

62%probability

Carlos Sanchez Jover won

Missed

13 May·Zagreb - Croatia

#201Matej Dodig1-2#167August Holmgren

BetBugsMatej Dodig to win·58%

Missed

13 May 2026

Zagreb - Croatia

#201Matej Dodig1-2#167August Holmgren

Matej Dodig to win

58%probability

August Holmgren won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W4-6 6-1 6-2Francesco Passaro#229vMatej Dodig#174Jul 20, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Francesco Passaro

12W 3L

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#90Marco Trungelliti

7-6(2) 7-6(6)#157Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-3 6-0#365Tiago Torres

6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(4)#343Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-1#619Yanaki Milev

6-3 6-4#319Enrico Dalla Valle

4-6 6-3 6-4#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-1 7-6(4)#312Oriol Roca Batalla

0-6 7-6(4) 6-1#593Alejandro Juan Mano

7-5 6-1#200Juan Pablo Varillas

3-6 6-4 6-4#87Lorenzo Sonego

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2#95Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#123Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(4) 6-4#164Tom Gentzsch

7-6(3) 6-2#222Felix Gill

Matej Dodig

13W 2L

6-4 7-6(4)#209Tristan Boyer

6-4 4-6 6-3#180Lukas Neumayer

6-2 6-1#130Pedro Martinez Portero

3-6 6-3 6-2#181Elmer Moller

6-3 6-1#180Lukas Neumayer

6-2 6-3#239Marvin Moeller

6-4 6-1#349Miguel Damas

6-3 3-6 6-1#145Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 7-6(3)#2Alexander Zverev

7-5 4-6 6-2#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(5)#319Enrico Dalla Valle

5-3 ret.#128Hugo Dellien

6-3 4-0 ret.#378Franco Agamenone

6-3 7-6(5)#200Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 6-0#399Johan Nikles

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFrancesco PassaroPassaro

Last 15

0–9

9 core stats · 0 even

Matej DodigDodigMD

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Francesco Passaro's route runs through 2nd serve won.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.2%+4.2pp65.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.9%+3.0pp77.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.0%+0.8pp54.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.3+0.95.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.22.1 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.5%+3.6pp43.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.1%+5.4pp43.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.3%+4.9pp69.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.9%+2.6pp55.5%

Serve · 0–5

61.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp65.4%

74.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp77.9%

54.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp54.8%

4.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.95.2

3.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.1 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

39.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp43.1%

Pressure · 0–2

38.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.4pp43.5%

64.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp69.2%

Points · 0–1

52.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp55.5%