ChinaWTA NingboFinished

Predictions graded

Dayana Yastremska #103Ukraine0Kamilla Rakhimova #69Uzbekistan2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Sat 17 Oct 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–373%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 34 places

Dayana Yastremska

Ukraine

Yastremska reached a career-high No. 21 in January 2020. ITF lists hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #103
Peak ranking: #21 · 2020
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #69
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

A Ningbo qualifying opener where the lower-ranked Yastremska has the bigger wins but the higher-ranked Rakhimova has the steadier hard-court game share.

Rakhimova looks the slightly more likely winner, helped by a 9-6 first-set record on hard, though Yastremska's fitness after a leg and hip timeout in Wuhan is unresolved. Neither quoted price is worthwhile: 1.85 on Rakhimova carries no clear advantage, and 1.95 on Yastremska is one to leave alone.

Context

Yastremska took treatment on a leg and hip area during her Wuhan second-round loss to Iva Jovic, her final match before this fixture. The timeout came three days before she is scheduled on Grandstand, and a leg or hip problem can limit movement and serving. She is on the order of play, so she is evidently fit enough to compete, but no diagnosis followed the timeout and the extent of any restriction is unresolved. It is a fitness question to watch rather than a confirmed limitation.
- Yastremska received treatment on a leg and hip area while trailing 0-3 in the second set against Iva Jovic in Wuhan.
- The Wuhan second round was her final match before this fixture, which is scheduled for 17 October.
To watchSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova's Wuhan qualifying produced a 6-0 6-3 win over 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin and then a 7-6(2) 6-1 loss to Han Shi that kept her out of the main draw. That one-win, one-loss week is the most direct form guide for a Ningbo fixture that is itself a qualifying match. The Kenin result shows she can beat experienced opposition on this surface; the Shi result is the caution against reading a single win as a settled level.
- Rakhimova beat Sofia Kenin 6-0 6-3 in Wuhan qualifying .
- Han Shi then beat Rakhimova 7-6(2) 6-1 in the deciding qualifying round, ending her Wuhan week.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest
The win over Cristina Bucsa, then No. 38, put Yastremska in the Wuhan second round for the first time since 2019 and was her fifth top-50 win of 2026. It is the strongest current evidence that she can still win a tour-level match against higher-ranked opposition, and it came in the same Chinese hard-court swing as this fixture. The match that followed produced a heavy defeat and an injury timeout, so the win and the fitness doubt belong together.
- Yastremska beat Cristina Bucsa 6-4 5-7 6-3 in the Wuhan first round .
- It was her first second-round appearance in Wuhan since 2019 and her fifth top-50 win of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova's 6-2 4-6 6-3 win removed Leylah Fernandez, who had just won the Singapore title and was ranked No. 25, and stands as her best recent hard-court result. It matters because it is evidence she can beat higher-ranked opposition in Asia this autumn, directly relevant to a qualifying match against a former top-25 player in Yastremska. The run ended immediately with a 6-1 7-5 loss to Iva Jovic, so the win is an outlier rather than part of a longer sequence.
- Rakhimova beat Leylah Fernandez 6-2 4-6 6-3 in the Beijing first round .
- Fernandez had won the Singapore title in September and was ranked No. 25.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Rakhimova is ranked higher, returns better and holds the stronger hard-court game share over a larger sample.
- WTA No. 69 vs No. 103
- 8-7 on hard with 50.2% of games and 51.4% of sets won
- Return points won 44.9% and break points converted 48.8%
- Last six hard matches: 57 games won, 62 lost
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A 2.5-game start protects Yastremska in a match where her recent defeats were all heavy.
- Yastremska covers if she avoids losing by three games or more
- Her recent defeats came by 7, 7 and 6 games
- Ranked No. 103 against No. 69
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDayana Yastremska +2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's even hard-court game share against Yastremska's below-50% mark makes a losing game count less likely.
- Rakhimova covers if she wins the game count or ties it
- Hard record 8-7 with 50.2% of games won
- Yastremska has won only 46.2% of games on hard
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKamilla Rakhimova +0.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' first sets finish inside 9.5 games.
- Yastremska's first sets average 8.6 games
- Combined first-set average is around 9.1 games
- Yastremska's last six first sets: 4-6, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3, 6-3, 3-6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average sits just under the 9.5 line.
- Yastremska's second sets average 9.1 games
- Rakhimova's second sets average 9.1 games
- Both players lose more second sets than they win
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard matches sit right around the 21.5 line, with double-fault swings adding games.
- Yastremska's hard matches average 21.4 games, Rakhimova's 21.8
- Combined three-set rate is 35% in hard best-of-three
- Both average over four double faults per hard match
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate the hard-court records of both players this period.
- Combined 15 of 23 hard best-of-three matches ended in straight sets
- Rakhimova 10 of 15 straight-set finishes
- Yastremska 5 of 8 straight-set finishes
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's first-set record is the strongest single split available in this match.
- Rakhimova is 9-6 in first sets on hard (60%)
- Yastremska is 4-4 in first sets on hard
- Rakhimova took the opening set 6-0 off Kenin in a recent win
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's overall edge thins in second sets, where both players' records dip.
- Rakhimova is 6-9 in second sets on hard
- Yastremska is 3-5 in second sets on hard
- Both players sit below .500 in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' hard matches finish without a tiebreak.
- 6 of 23 combined hard matches featured a tiebreak (26%)
- Yastremska's 8 hard matches produced 1 tiebreak
- Rakhimova's second sets produced 1 tiebreak in 15
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve erratically, and their combined double-fault average sits above the line.
- Yastremska averages 4.6 double faults per hard match
- Rakhimova averages 5.6 per hard match
- Combined average is 10.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are modest and sit just under the line.
- Yastremska averages 2.4 aces per hard match
- Rakhimova averages 2.1 per hard match
- Both players' first serves land at or below 65.5%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Kamilla Rakhimova: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Kamilla Rakhimova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Kamilla Rakhimova5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·WTA Washington

#78Kamilla Rakhimova0-2#475Heather Watson

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·62%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#78Kamilla Rakhimova0-2#475Heather Watson

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

62%probability

Heather Watson won

Missed

20 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#65Kamilla Rakhimova1-2#89Oksana Selekhmeteva

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·62%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#65Kamilla Rakhimova1-2#89Oksana Selekhmeteva

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

62%probability

Oksana Selekhmeteva won

Missed

12 Jun·WTA London

#160Harriet Dart1-2#78Kamilla Rakhimova

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·58%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

WTA London

#160Harriet Dart1-2#78Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

58%probability

Kamilla Rakhimova won

Matched

5 May·WTA Rome

#59Antonia Ruzic2-1#76Kamilla Rakhimova

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·55%

Missed

5 May 2026

WTA Rome

#59Antonia Ruzic2-1#76Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

55%probability

Antonia Ruzic won

Missed

13 Apr·Rouen

#72Kamilla Rakhimova2-0#140Elvina Kalieva

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·65%

Matched

13 Apr 2026

Rouen

#72Kamilla Rakhimova2-0#140Elvina Kalieva

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

65%probability

Kamilla Rakhimova won

Matched

Dayana Yastremska

6W 9L

6-4 6-1#11Iva Jovic

6-4 5-7 6-3#38Cristina Bucsa

6-1 6-4#75Sinja Kraus

6-3 6-1#22Maja Chwalinska

6-3 6-4#70Caty McNally

6-3 4-6 6-1#106Lucrezia Stefanini

2-6 6-3 7-6(5)#47Janice Tjen

6-1 6-2#71Tatjana Maria

6-3 6-7(1) 6-2#99Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

7-6(1) 4-6 7-5#344Aoi Ito

6-1 6-2#71Tatjana Maria

6-4 7-6(2)#236Alicia Dudeney

4-6 6-4 7-5#108Ajla Tomljanovic

6-1 6-2#30Sara Bejlek

7-5 6-3#33Jasmine Paolini

Kamilla Rakhimova

8W 7L

7-6(2) 6-1#217Han Shi

6-0 6-3#125Sofia Kenin

6-1 7-5#11Iva Jovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#25Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#129Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#88Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#102Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#100Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#46Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#63Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#94Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 5-7 6-1#35Maria Sakkari

6-2 6-2#40Kimberly Birrell

6-4 6-0#4Jessica Pegula

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DYDayana YastremskaYastremska

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimovaKR

Kamilla Rakhimova carries the stronger recent form — Dayana Yastremska's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.8%+9.3pp54.5%

1st Serve Won60.6%+1.4pp62.0%

2nd Serve Won42.7%+2.4pp45.1%

Aces / Match2.3—2.1

Double Faults / Match4.11.5 fewer5.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.0%+2.9pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.1%+7.7pp48.8%

Break Pts Saved51.4%+5.7pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.1%+1.6pp49.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.8%1st Serve In+9.3pp54.5%

60.6%1st Serve Won+1.4pp62.0%

42.7%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp45.1%

2.3Aces / Match—2.1

4.1Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer5.6

Return · 0–1

42.0%Return Pts Won+2.9pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–2

41.1%Break Pts Converted+7.7pp48.8%

51.4%Break Pts Saved+5.7pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

48.1%Total Pts Won+1.6pp49.7%