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Predictions graded

Arthur Fils #10France2Pavel Kotov #187Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:51 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–373%

Edges1–614%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Fils · 177 places

Arthur Fils

France

Reached a career-high No. 14 in April 2025. Clay has produced his strongest recorded career win rate, although he has won tour titles on both clay and hard courts.

Current ranking: #10
Peak ranking: #14 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Fils, the No. 10 seed, opens Shanghai against a qualifier who has already won four matches here, and the level gap still points to Fils advancing.

Two prices ask too much: 1.07 on Fils to win and 1.55 giving 4.5 games. Six others offer something — over 22.5 games at 2.60, a deciding set at 3.00, Kotov for the first set and second set at 4.75, Kotov to win at 8.50, Fils 2-1 at 3.80.

Context

Kotov had already won three qualifying matches plus a first-round match on these courts before Fils struck a ball, so he arrives with timing and a read on the conditions that a first-round bye does not provide. The same workload is the counterweight: four matches in five days before facing a top-10 seed, and the Griekspoor win came against a player who has lost twelve of his last fifteen opening matches. Fils's bye means this is his first match of the event, which cuts both ways on freshness and sharpness.
- Kotov beat Aleksandar Vukic 6-3, 6-3 in the Shanghai qualifying final on October 6, 2026.
- Kotov beat Tallon Griekspoor 6-4, 7-6(4) in the first round .
- The win over Griekspoor was Kotov's first at ATP main-draw level in about two years.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:17 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 8 Oct 2026
Fils has not played a competitive match in Shanghai, so the bye leaves him fresher but without any read on the court or conditions, while Kotov has already played four matches there. The Tokyo run gave Fils a hard-court form line into this swing, but it ended in a three-set quarterfinal loss rather than a title push, and he now opens against a qualifier carrying the same window's match sharpness.
- Fils, seeded eighth, advanced to the second round on a first-round bye.
- Fils lost to Valentin Vacherot in the Japan Open quarterfinal on October 4, 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:17 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 8 Oct 2026
Kotov's serve has kept his sets close, so his matches rarely finish quickly.
Kotov's 14 same-format hard matches average 24.2 games, with tiebreaks in nine and six of his 14 second sets going the distance. Fils' 14 matches in that format average 21.6 games with four tiebreaks, so the two records point different ways on length. Kotov's wins over Martin Damm (7-6 6-7 6-3) and Tallon Griekspoor (6-4 7-6(4)) show the pattern; holding serve that reliably against Fils' return is the harder part.
- Kotov's 14 best-of-three hard-court matches between 8 September and 8 October 2026 average 24.2 games.
- Nine of those 14 matches featured at least one tiebreak.
- His second sets in the same sample average 10.9 games, with six tiebreaks in 14.
The prior meeting is the only direct reference point between the two and it was played at the same tournament, which is why it frames this fixture. Its weight is limited: it is a three-year-old result from a different stage of both careers, with Kotov now a qualifier ranked 187th and Fils a top-10 seed, so the historical scoreline is context rather than an indication of how this round will play.
- The only previous meeting between the two players came at the 2023 Shanghai Masters.
- Fils won that match in straight sets.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fils is far higher ranked, wins more points on both serve and return, and handled Kotov easily when they last met.
- Fils is ranked 10th; Kotov is 187th and came through qualifying
- Fils has won 12 of 15 recent hard-court matches; Kotov 11 of 14 at a much lower level
- Fils wins 54.1% of total points on hard versus Kotov's 51.5%
- Fils won their only meeting 6-1 6-4 in 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance83%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's second sets frequently need a tiebreak or extra games to separate the players.
- Kotov's second sets average 10.9 games with six tiebreaks in 14
- Fils's second sets average 9.4 games
- Kotov won a 7-6 second set against Griekspoor in the first round
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Fils's recent wins have generally come by five games or more, which is enough to clear this line.
- Fils's recent hard-court wins came by margins of +5, +6, +6 and +7 games
- Fils has won 58.5% of games on hard, Kotov 53.4%
- Kotov lost a set in four of his last six completed matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonArthur Fils -4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's matches tend to stay tight and he holds serve well, so a six-game cushion covers most outcomes.
- Kotov's four recent wins came by +3, +3, +3 and +6 games
- Kotov has saved 67.6% of break points on hard
- Kotov's losses this stretch were by 5 and 9 games, but both were straight-sets defeats
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPavel Kotov +5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's opening sets regularly run past nine games, and Fils's average sits right at the line.
- Fils's first sets average 9.4 games, Kotov's 10.4
- Five of Kotov's last 14 first sets reached a tiebreak
- Fils's first sets have produced two tiebreaks in 14
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Kotov regularly plays long, tight matches and holds serve well enough to push sets toward tiebreaks.
- Fils's recent hard-court matches average 21.6 games, Kotov's 24.2
- Nine of Kotov's last 14 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Five of Fils's last 14 hard-court matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fils starts matches strongly on hard courts and has won nearly four of every five opening sets.
- Fils has won the first set in 11 of his last 14 hard-court matches
- Kotov has won the first set in 8 of 14, with five tiebreaks
- Fils won the opening set 6-1 in their 2023 meeting
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fils has been solid in second sets, and Kotov has lost the second set in every straight-sets defeat.
- Fils has won the second set in 10 of his last 14 hard-court matches
- Kotov has lost the second set in 4 of 14
- Fils beat Tiafoe 7-5 in a second set during this run
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonArthur FilsEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches most often finish in two sets, and Fils is the stronger player.
- Fils has won 2-0 in 8 of 14 recent hard-court matches; Kotov has lost 0-2 three times in 14
- Fils's recent hard-court matches average 2.36 sets
- Kotov's recent hard-court matches average 2.29 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fils wins most of his hard-court matches in straight sets and has beaten Kotov without dropping a set before.
- Fils has won 2-0 in 8 of his last 14 hard-court matches
- Fils won their only meeting 6-1 6-4 in 2023
- Kotov has lost 0-2 three times in his last 14 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonArthur Fils 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double-fault rates sit below this line and Kotov in particular is a low double-fault server.
- Fils averages 2.5 double faults per match, Kotov 1.6
- Kotov has served 23 double faults in 14 recent hard-court matches
- Both players land around 62-66% of first serves in
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's serve holds well enough to keep sets close, while Fils often needs a late break to close them out.
- Nine of Kotov's last 14 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Only four of Fils's last 14 did
- Kotov won a 7-6 set against Griekspoor
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve big enough that the combined ace count tends to sit around this line.
- Fils averages 6.9 aces per match on hard, Kotov 6.7
- Both players win over 74% of points behind the first serve
- Fils served 6.9 aces across 15 recent hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.07 price requires 93.5%, above our 83.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Arthur Fils: 7/10 recent winner projections matched

7 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Arthur Fils matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Arthur Fils10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#23Arthur Fils0-2#25Rafael Jodar

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·58%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#23Arthur Fils0-2#25Rafael Jodar

Arthur Fils to win

58%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#51Matteo Berrettini3-1#24Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·58%

Missed

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#51Matteo Berrettini3-1#24Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

58%probability

Matteo Berrettini won

Missed

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#43Raphael Collignon0-3#23Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·65%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#43Raphael Collignon0-3#23Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

65%probability

Arthur Fils won

Matched

9 May·ATP Rome

#155Andrea Pellegrino1-0#17Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·82%

Missed

9 May 2026

ATP Rome

#155Andrea Pellegrino1-0#17Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

82%probability

Andrea Pellegrino won

Missed

28 Apr·Madrid

#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry0-2#25Arthur Fils

BetBugsArthur Fils to win·57%

Matched

28 Apr 2026

Madrid

#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry0-2#25Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils to win

57%probability

Arthur Fils won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-4Arthur Fils#10vPavel Kotov#187Oct 5, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Arthur Fils

12W 3L

7-5 4-6 6-4#14Valentin Vacherot 6-3 7-5#8Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-2#45Luca Van Assche

6-2 3-6 6-1#70Kamil Majchrzak

2-6 6-1 6-1#104Martin Damm

4-6 7-6(3) 6-1 6-4#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 1-6 6-0#8Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-4#7Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-2#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-3 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

6-1 6-7(7) 6-3#19Jiri Lehecka

7-6(5) 6-1#57Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(5) 6-3#13Rafael Jodar

6-2 7-6(8)#40Cameron Norrie

6-3 6-2#47Mariano Navone

Pavel Kotov

11W 4L

6-4 7-6(4)#58Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-3#115Aleksandar Vukic 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#104Martin Damm

7-5 6-3#123Shintaro Mochizuki

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-0 6-3#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#185Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#221Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#324Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-1#123Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 7-5#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

3-6 6-1 6-1#184Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#357Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#192Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#383Daniel Elahi Galan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFArthur FilsFils

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Pavel KotovKotovPK

Arthur Fils carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Kotov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.8%+2.8pp64.6%

1st Serve Won74.8%—74.2%

2nd Serve Won58.5%+2.5pp56.0%

Aces / Match6.9+0.36.6

Double Faults / Match2.50.9 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.2%+5.9pp34.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted45.2%+8.8pp36.4%

Break Pts Saved67.7%+1.9pp65.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.1%+3.1pp51.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.8%1st Serve In+2.8pp64.6%

74.8%1st Serve Won—74.2%

58.5%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp56.0%

6.9Aces / Match+0.36.6

2.5Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

40.2%Return Pts Won+5.9pp34.3%

Pressure · 2–0

45.2%Break Pts Converted+8.8pp36.4%

67.7%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp65.8%

Points · 1–0

54.1%Total Pts Won+3.1pp51.0%

Arthur Fils #10France2Pavel Kotov #187Russia0

Player Profiles

Arthur Fils

Pavel Kotov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Over 2.5

Arthur Fils 2-1

Pavel Kotov

Pavel Kotov

Pavel Kotov

Arthur Fils -4.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils: 7/10 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils

Pavel Kotov

Stat Battle