Andrea Pellegrino #155Italy11 – 0Arthur Fils #17France0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fils' dominant clay form and Pellegrino's struggles against top-100 opponents suggest a straight-sets win with few games, likely staying under 21.5 total games.

• Fils' last 5 clay wins averaged 18.6 games per match, with only one exceeding 21.5 games.
• Pellegrino's recent matches have been mixed, but his losses to higher-ranked players (e.g., Damm, Shevchenko) were under 21.5 games.
• Fils has a strong serve and return edge: 71.2% win on first serve vs. Pellegrino's 65.7%, and 41.8% break point conversion vs. 42.9% (similar, but Fils creates more break opportunities).
• The match is best-of-3 on clay, where Fils' superior rally tolerance and power should lead to relatively quick sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Fils' trend of winning first sets with few games lost, and Pellegrino's vulnerability early in matches, suggest the first set could be under 9.5 games, though confidence is tempered by clay's potential for longer games.

• Fils' last 5 first-set scores on clay: 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 (average 8.6 games).
• Pellegrino has lost first sets 6-1, 6-0, 6-3 in recent matches against stronger opponents.
• Fils' first-serve dominance and early breaks often lead to quick sets.
• The under 9.5 line has hit in 4 of Fils' last 6 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

If Fils wins the first set, his momentum and Pellegrino's tendency to drop the second set quickly make under 9.5 games in the second set a reasonable outcome, though not a high-confidence call.

• Fils' second-set scores in straight-sets wins: 6-4, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 (average 8.4 games).
• Pellegrino often fades in second sets after losing the first, with scores like 6-3, 6-2, 6-1.
• Fils' physical edge and clay fitness should prevent a letdown.
• The under 9.5 has hit in 5 of Fils' last 7 second sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fils' ability to win sets comfortably and the clay surface's tendency to avoid tiebreaks make it unlikely that a tiebreak will occur in this match.

• Fils has played a tiebreak in only 3 of his last 10 matches.
• Pellegrino has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 10 matches.
• Fils' dominant first-set performances and straight-sets wins reduce tiebreak likelihood.
• Clay courts tend to have fewer tiebreaks due to longer rallies and fewer service holds.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While clay typically suppresses aces, the combined ace rates of both players make over 7.5 a plausible outcome, though confidence is low due to surface effects.

• Fils averages 6.5% ace rate, which over an expected 20-22 games could yield 6-8 aces alone.
• Pellegrino's ace rate is 3.6%, but he may serve more aces if forced to take risks against Fils' return.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest around 8-10 total aces in a typical match.
• Clay courts reduce ace counts, but both players have above-average ace rates for the surface.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have elevated double fault rates, and the pressure of a Masters 1000 match could push the total over 5.5, though clay reduces the risk slightly.

• Fils has a double fault rate of 4.2%, Pellegrino 3.9%, both above tour average.
• In a 20-game match, this could result in 6-8 double faults combined.
• Pellegrino's second-serve win rate is only 50.7%, which may lead to more double faults under pressure.
• Fils' aggressive second serve can also produce double faults, especially on big points.