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Predictions graded

Matteo Berrettini #51Italy3Arthur Fils #24France1

Sets 6-4 · 7-5 · 3-6 · 6-3Thu 2 Jul 2026, 14:12 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Fils · 27 places

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

Former world No. 6 and 2021 Wimbledon finalist. ATP's bio updated in May 2026 lists hard as his favourite surface, but also credits him with a 42-12 grass record and four grass titles. His ranking decline has tracked repeated injury interruptions across 2023-26 rather than one newly reported current issue.

Current ranking: #51
Peak ranking: #6 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Arthur Fils

France

Career-high No. 14 came in April 2025. ATP's bio updated in May 2026 says he answered an early-2026 back layoff with Miami and Madrid semi-finals and the Barcelona title. Public profile sources reviewed here did not clearly state a favourite surface.

Current ranking: #24
Peak ranking: #14 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 07:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Arthur Fils holds a moderate edge over Matteo Berrettini in Wimbledon's second round, fueled by superior 2026 form and a lighter first-round workload.

Berrettini's elite grass-court serve should keep the match close, with strong value on Berrettini +2.5 games, over 40.5 total games, and Fils to win 3-1. Avoid Fils 3-0 and the first-set winner market on Fils due to overpriced odds.

Context

Berrettini's first-round match lasted 52 games (27-25) with four tiebreaks on 30 June.
- Fils beat Collignon 7-5, 6-1, 6-3 in 28 games on the same day.
- Berrettini has a history of long matches, but this was his first grass match of 2026.
- Fils' lighter workload gives him a physical edge heading into the second round.
Fils' last 10 completed matches: 9 wins, including wins over Rublev, Musetti, and Paul.
- Berrettini's last 10 matches: 6 wins, 4 losses, with a retirement against Arnaldi and a straight-set loss to Popyrin.
- Fils' ranking has climbed to No. 24, while Berrettini is at No. 51.
- Fils added Goran Ivanisevic to his team in February 2026, coinciding with his rise.
Berrettini's career grass win rate is 82.1% (46-10).
- He won 9 straight grass matches in 2022 and reached the Wimbledon final in 2021.
- His first-serve win rate on grass is 77.5%, among the best on tour.
- Fils is 11-3 on grass but has never faced a server of Berrettini's caliber on this surface.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Fils' superior recent form and ranking, combined with Berrettini's inconsistent 2026 results and heavy first-round workload, give Fils a moderate edge in a Bo5 grass-court match.
- Fils has won 9 of his last 10 completed matches across all surfaces since April 2026, including a Barcelona title and Miami/Madrid semifinals.
- Berrettini's recent form is mixed: 3-2 in his last 5, with a retirement loss to Arnaldi and a straight-set loss to Popyrin on clay.
- Fils leads H2H 1-0 (retirement win in 2024), and his current ranking (24) is significantly higher than Berrettini's (51).
- On grass, Berrettini has a career 46-10 record, but Fils is 11-3 in his young career and won his only grass match this year comfortably.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArthur FilsEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players in the first set should lead to a close, extended set with over 10.5 games.
- Berrettini's last 5 first sets have averaged 11.2 games, with three tiebreaks.
- Fils' last 5 first sets have averaged 10.4 games, with two tiebreaks.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages above 70%, making breaks less likely early.
- In their only H2H set, it went to a tiebreak (7-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 10.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Berrettini's ability to stay competitive on grass, especially with his serve, makes a +3.5 game handicap likely to cover.
- Berrettini's last four Bo5 matches have been decided by 2 games or fewer (including a 52-game match).
- Fils' recent wins have often been by comfortable margins, but against top-50 opponents, his average margin is under 3 games.
- Berrettini's grass-court prowess and serving should keep the match close even if he loses.
- In their only H2H, the match was tight before retirement.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatteo Berrettini +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With two big servers on grass in a Bo5 format, extended sets and tiebreaks are likely, pushing the total games over 38.5.
- Berrettini's last match went 52 games (27-25) in four tiebreak sets, and his recent Bo5 matches average over 40 games.
- Fils' recent matches have been shorter, but his only Bo5 grass match this year was a routine 28-game win; however, against stronger servers, his matches can extend.
- Both players have strong serve stats: Berrettini wins 77.5% on first serve, Fils 71.2%, suggesting holds and potential tiebreaks.
- In their only H2H meeting (2024), the first set went to a tiebreak before retirement, indicating competitive dynamics.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 38.5Estimated chance62%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Berrettini's resilience on grass and Fils' relative inexperience in Bo5 on this surface point to a match lasting at least four sets.
- Berrettini's last five Bo5 matches have all gone at least four sets.
- Fils has played only one Bo5 match this year (a straight-set win), but his opponent was weaker.
- On grass, Berrettini's serve can extend matches, and he has a history of long battles at Wimbledon.
- Fils' fitness and form suggest he can win, but Berrettini is unlikely to be swept.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Fils' strong recent trend of winning first sets and Berrettini's occasional slow starts give Fils a slight edge in the opener.
- Fils has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 completed matches.
- Berrettini lost the first set in his last match (to Wawrinka) and has a 50% first-set win rate in his last 6 matches.
- Fils' first-set win conversion rate is 87% for his career, slightly higher than Berrettini's 86%.
- On grass, Fils won his only first set this year 7-5, while Berrettini lost his 6-7.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostArthur FilsEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With two big servers on grass, the probability of at least one tiebreak in a Bo5 match is very high.
- Berrettini's last match featured four tiebreaks, and 5 of his last 10 matches have had at least one tiebreak.
- Fils has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches, including a 7-6 set in his only grass match this year.
- Both players have strong tiebreak records: Berrettini 56% career, Fils 61%.
- On grass, tiebreaks are more frequent due to serve dominance; Berrettini's career grass matches often feature tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Berrettini's elite serving on grass, combined with Fils' capable serve, should produce a high ace count in a multi-set match.
- Berrettini averages 11.5 aces per match over his career, and in his last Bo5 match, he hit 18 aces (estimated from 52 games).
- Fils averages 6.6 aces per match, but on grass, his ace rate likely increases; he hit 5 aces in his last 3-set grass match.
- In a projected 4-set match, combined aces could easily exceed 22.5 given Berrettini's firepower.
- Berrettini's ace rate on grass historically is higher than his career average.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 22.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-7(5) ret.Matteo Berrettini#51vArthur Fils#24Sep 27, 2024

1 total meetings

Matteo Berrettini

9W 6L

6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#109Stan Wawrinka

7-5 5-2 ret.#35Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-6(2) 7-6(6)#42Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(3) 5-7 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(13)#91Francisco Comesana

6-4 6-4 6-4#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1 6-2#76Marton Fucsovics

7-6(2) 6-4#59Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-4 6-2#203Taro Daniel

6-2 6-3#103Alexei Popyrin

4-6 6-3 6-4#96Hubert Hurkacz

7-5 6-3#38Mariano Navone

6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5)#113Patrick Kypson

6-3 6-4#89Dino Prizmic

6-3 6-2#27Joao Fonseca

6-0 6-0#9Daniil Medvedev

Arthur Fils

12W 3L

7-5 6-1 6-3#43Raphael Collignon

4-0 ret.#133Andrea Pellegrino

6-2 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 6-4#14Jiri Lehecka

6-3 6-4#32Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(2) 6-3#86Emilio Nava

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-5#34Ignacio Buse

6-2 7-6(2)#13Andrey Rublev

3-6 6-3 6-2#26Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-4#15Lorenzo Musetti

6-2 6-3#31Brandon Nakashima

4-6 6-4 7-6(7)#52Terence Atmane

6-2 6-2#14Jiri Lehecka

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(6)#25Tommy Paul

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#20Valentin Vacherot

Matteo Berrettini #51Italy3Arthur Fils #24France1

Player Profiles

Matteo Berrettini

Arthur Fils

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Matteo Berrettini +2.5

Over 40.5

Over 3.5

Arthur Fils 3-1

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Fils, A 3-0 @ 3.50

Head-to-Head

Matteo Berrettini

Arthur Fils