Matteo Berrettini #46Italy00 – 2Brandon Nakashima #18United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Nakashima is the higher-ranked, more consistent hard-court player over the last six weeks and arrives far fresher, while Berrettini has been splitting matches at this level.

• Nakashima is 11-4 on hard courts in the last 15 window; Berrettini is 4-4 on the same surface.
• Nakashima won 52.3% of total points and 78.2% of first-serve points in that window.
• Nakashima entered with a first-round bye; Berrettini needed three sets and 2h15 on 7 October.
• Berrettini has no serve or return metrics in the supplied window, so his current level is only partly measurable.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Berrettini's serve keeps most sets close, so even in defeat he has usually stayed within a few games.

• Five of Berrettini's six hard-court best-of-three matches went to a deciding set.
• He lost only 7-13 in games in his one straight-set defeat in that sample.
• Nakashima's 12 hard-court best-of-three matches average 24.8 games, limiting large margins.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players hold serve well enough that opening sets regularly run past nine games.

• Berrettini's first sets average 10.2 games with two tiebreaks in six.
• Nakashima's first sets average 10.4 games with four tiebreaks in twelve.
• Six of the 18 first sets in these samples reached a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in these samples have been almost as long as the first, with tiebreaks frequent.

• Berrettini's second sets average 10.0 games with three tiebreaks in six.
• Nakashima's second sets average 10.3 games with three tiebreaks in twelve.
• Berrettini's second-set game difference is +1.3 per set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The stronger, fresher player is more likely to finish ahead on games even when the match is competitive.

• Nakashima is 11-4 on hard courts in the last 15 window with a 52.3% total-points-won rate.
• Berrettini lost the game count in three of his last four completed hard-court best-of-three matches.
• Nakashima's 12 hard-court best-of-three matches average 210 games won to 171 lost in the window.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Berrettini has started slowly throughout this stretch, while Nakashima has been the steadier opener in the same conditions.

• Berrettini has lost all six first sets in his hard-court best-of-three sample.
• Nakashima is 7-5 in first sets across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
• Berrettini averaged 3.8 games won and 6.3 lost in those first sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets look close to even, with a slight lean to Nakashima because he is the stronger player across the whole match.

• Nakashima is 6-6 in second sets across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
• Berrettini is 5-1 in second sets in his six-match sample, often after losing the first.
• Berrettini's second sets average 5.7 games won and 4.3 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players hold serve well enough for at least one set to reach a tiebreak in Shanghai.

• Five of Berrettini's six hard-court best-of-three matches contained a tiebreak.
• Six of Nakashima's 12 hard-court best-of-three matches contained a tiebreak.
• Nakashima wins 78.2% of first-serve points and saves 69.2% of break points.