United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Brandon Nakashima #33United States2Jakub Mensik #17Czechia1

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 6-4Thu 30 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJakub Mensik · 16 places

Brandon Nakashima

United States

Hard courts are his stated preferred surface. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 29 on 5 May 2025.

Current ranking: #33
Peak ranking: #29 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Jakub Mensik

Czechia

Hard courts are his stated preferred surface. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 12 on 2 March 2026.

Current ranking: #17
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Brandon Nakashima holds a slight edge over Jakub Mensik in their Washington Round of 16 match, backed by superior hard-court form and cleaner recent win.

Despite Mensik's 2-0 H2H lead, Nakashima's improved return game and Mensik's high double-fault rate make the American a value bet at 2.10 odds. Expect a close match with a tiebreak likely and over 17.5 total aces.

Context

Nakashima beat No. 31 Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 32, winning 63.2% of games and 57.3% of total points.
- Mensik dropped a set to No. 436 Trevor Svajda, winning 60% of games but only 52.5% of total points.
- Nakashima's last-15 hard-court sample is only one match, but it shows a cleaner performance than Mensik's equivalent single match.
Mensik's last-15 break-point conversion rate is 28.9% (46/159), well below the tour average.
- Nakashima's last-15 break-point save rate is 56.5% (39/69), showing resilience under pressure.
- In their two H2H matches, Mensik converted 50% of break points, but Nakashima's current form suggests he is tougher to break now.
Mensik's match against Svajda went three sets and lasted 136 minutes, while Nakashima's match against Etcheverry was a straight-set 82-minute win.
- Both matches were played on 28 July, but Mensik's started later and ended closer to midnight local time.
- Nakashima also played a doubles match on 27 July, but the singles workload difference is the clearer factor.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Nakashima's superior hard-court pedigree and cleaner recent win give him a slight edge, despite the H2H deficit.
- Nakashima's last15 overall record is 9-6 (60%) with 54.5% games won; Mensik is also 9-6 but only 51% games won.
- On hard courts, Nakashima's career win rate is 137-? (surfaceWins 137) vs Mensik's 92, and Nakashima has a strong 2026 hard record (10-6).
- H2H: Mensik leads 2-0, both on hard in 2024, but Nakashima has improved since then (ranking 33 now vs then).
- Nakashima's recent form: straight-set win over Etcheverry (rank 31) in Washington; Mensik dropped a set to qualifier Svajda (rank 436).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and H2H history point to a competitive match likely exceeding 22.5 games.
- Nakashima's last15 average games per match: 28.7 (431/15); Mensik's: 33.7 (506/15).
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Nakashima 53% career, Mensik 57% career; recent matches show many close sets.
- Mensik's last15 break-point conversion is low (28.9%), extending games; Nakashima's is 52.1%.
- H2H matches: 6-4 7-6(4) and 7-5 7-5 – both over 22.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Nakashima is expected to keep the match close or win, making +1.5 games a solid handicap.
- Nakashima's last15 games won%: 54.5%; Mensik's: 51%.
- Nakashima's hard-court career win% is higher, and he has a 10-6 record in 2026 on hard.
- H2H matches were close: 6-4 7-6 and 7-5 7-5, both within 1.5 games margin.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBrandon Nakashima +1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical data and recent form suggest the first set will be competitive, likely reaching at least 10 games.
- Nakashima's last15 first-set average games: ~9.8 (based on 15 matches, many close sets); Mensik's: ~10.1.
- H2H first sets: 10 games (6-4) and 12 games (7-5).
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion, indicating tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Nakashima's slightly better serve/return metrics in the recent window suggest a marginal edge in the opening set.
- Nakashima's first-set win conversion career is 85%, Mensik's is 86% – both strong.
- In last15, Nakashima's first-serve points won is 78.1% vs Mensik's 76.4%, and Nakashima's return points won is 36.9% vs 35.7%.
- Nakashima's hard-court last15 (1 match) showed 80.6% first-serve points won; Mensik's (1 match) 83.6%, but sample tiny.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mensik's high double-fault rate alone pushes the total over 5.5, with Nakashima contributing minimally.
- Mensik's last15 double faults per match: 4.7; Nakashima's: 0.9 – combined 5.6.
- Mensik's hard-court last15 (1 match) had 8 double faults; Nakashima's (1 match) had 1.
- H2H: Nakashima 3 DF, Mensik 8 DF across 2 matches (avg 5.5 per match).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates from recent windows and H2H comfortably support over 17.5 aces.
- Nakashima's last15 aces per match: 9.0; Mensik's: 10.7 – combined average 19.7.
- On hard courts, Nakashima's last15 (1 match) had 8 aces; Mensik's (1 match) had 11 aces.
- H2H: Nakashima 7 aces, Mensik 19 aces across 2 matches (avg 13 per match).
- Both players are tall (188cm and 196cm) with strong serves.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 17.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of serve-oriented play and recent tiebreak frequency makes a tiebreak likely.
- Nakashima's career tiebreak win rate: 53%; Mensik's: 57% – both frequent tiebreak players.
- In last15, Nakashima played 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches; Mensik played 7 tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- H2H: one match had a tiebreak (7-6(4)).
- Both players have strong serves and close recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Brandon Nakashima has been highly reliable when projected to win

In his last 10 matches where he was predicted to win, Brandon Nakashima fulfilled the prediction 7 times. His average estimated probability in those matches was 61.8%, and he slightly outperformed expectations with 7 wins versus 6.2 expected. All three missed predictions were losses, with no draws, and the current probability of 55% sits within his historical range of 52–78%.

Recent evidence for Brandon Nakashima10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Missed

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima3-0#145Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·78%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima3-0#145Jack Pinnington-Jones

Brandon Nakashima to win

78%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

20 Jun·ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima1-2#27Francisco Cerundolo

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·58%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima1-2#27Francisco Cerundolo

Brandon Nakashima to win

58%probability

Francisco Cerundolo won

Missed

17 Jun·ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#35Ignacio Buse

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#35Ignacio Buse

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-4 7-6(4)Brandon Nakashima#33vJakub Mensik#17Jan 10, 2024

L7-5 7-5Brandon Nakashima#33vJakub Mensik#17Jan 5, 2024

2 total meetings

Brandon Nakashima

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(7)#42Jan-Lennard Struff

6-3 7-6(5) 7-5#172Jack Pinnington Jones

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#20Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-3#6Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-2#34Ignacio Buse

6-3 6-3#84Marton Fucsovics

5-7 6-1 7-6(4) 7-6(1)#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-7(5) 6-4 5-7 6-1 6-3#48Luca Van Assche

6-2 7-5 6-2#180Roberto Bautista Agut

7-6(5) 6-4#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-0#180Roberto Bautista Agut

3-6 6-3 6-4#32Alexander Blockx

6-2 6-3#22Arthur Fils

6-3 7-5#50Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Jakub Mensik

9W 6L

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#436Trevor Svajda

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5 6-3#140Grigor Dimitrov

5-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#112Toby Samuel

5-7 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#47Adrian Mannarino

7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-3 7-6(3)#27Joao Fonseca

6-3 7-6(6) 4-6 2-6 6-3#14Andrey Rublev

0-6 6-2 6-2 6-3#6Alex De Minaur

6-3 2-6 6-4 1-6 7-6(11)#44Mariano Navone

6-3 6-2 6-4#119Titouan Droguet

6-0 6-3#34Ignacio Buse

7-6(3) 6-2#42Jan-Lennard Struff

6-3 2-6 6-4#103Alexei Popyrin

6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 7-6(11)#26Karen Khachanov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BNBrandon NakashimaNakashima

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Jakub MensikMensikJM

Brandon Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Jakub Mensik's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.5%+6.1pp60.4%

1st Serve Won78.1%+1.7pp76.4%

2nd Serve Won47.6%—47.4%

Aces / Match9.0+1.710.7

Double Faults / Match0.93.8 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won36.9%+1.2pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.1%+23.2pp28.9%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+3.7pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.2%+2.1pp50.1%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 5 vs 8

Winners / Match5/15 · 8/1545.0+3.948.9

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 8/1536.014.6 fewer50.6

Net Pts Won5/15 · 8/1566.9%+4.6pp71.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

66.5%1st Serve In+6.1pp60.4%

78.1%1st Serve Won+1.7pp76.4%

47.6%2nd Serve Won—47.4%

9.0Aces / Match+1.710.7

0.9Double Faults / Match3.8 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

36.9%Return Pts Won+1.2pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

52.1%Break Pts Converted+23.2pp28.9%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won+2.1pp50.1%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 5 vs 8

45.0Winners5/15 · 8/15+3.948.9

36.0Unforced Errors5/15 · 8/1514.6 fewer50.6

66.9%Net Pts Won5/15 · 8/15+4.6pp71.5%

Brandon Nakashima

Jakub Mensik

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Brandon Nakashima +1.5

Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima

Jakub Mensik

Stat Battle