Brandon Nakashima #32United States11 – 2Francisco Cerundolo #27Argentina2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cerundolo's tendency for longer matches and both players' moderate break-point saving rates point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Cerundolo's last 3 matches averaged 24.3 games, with two going to 3 sets.
• Nakashima's matches this week averaged 19.7 games, but his last 5 overall averaged 22.6 games.
• Both players have break-point save rates around 60-63%, suggesting extended games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Strong serving from both in opening sets suggests a tight first set with at least 10 games.

• Nakashima's first-set scores this week: 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 (avg 9.7 games).
• Cerundolo's first-set scores this week: 7-6, 6-0, 6-4 (avg 9.7 games).
• Both players have first-serve win rates above 66%, reducing break frequency.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cerundolo's competitiveness and return game should keep the match within a 3.5-game margin even if he loses.

• Cerundolo's matches this week have been close: 16-16, 12-4, 18-13 in games.
• Nakashima's wins were by margins of 5, 8, and 5 games, but Cerundolo is a tougher opponent.
• Cerundolo's return points won (42%) is better than Nakashima's (37%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Nakashima's fast starts on grass and superior first-serve effectiveness make him likely to take the opening set.

• Nakashima has won the first set in all 3 grass matches this week, including 7-5 vs De Minaur.
• Cerundolo lost the first set in his quarterfinal and needed a tiebreak in his opening match.
• Nakashima's career first-set win conversion is 85%, and his first-serve points won is 74.6%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Cerundolo's fighting qualities and Nakashima's potential dip after a big win could force a deciding set.

• Cerundolo has played 3 sets in 2 of 3 matches this week.
• Nakashima has won all matches in straight sets, but faced weaker opponents before De Minaur.
• Cerundolo's deciding-set win rate is 59%, showing resilience.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Nakashima's high ace rate on grass should push the combined total comfortably over 10.5.

• Nakashima averages 9.5 aces per match; Cerundolo averages 3.3.
• In their only H2H (2020 clay), they combined for 4 aces, but Nakashima's ace rate has improved significantly.
• Grass courts amplify ace counts; Nakashima's last 3 matches likely averaged 8+ aces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cerundolo's higher double-fault rate and match tension should lead to at least 6 double faults combined.

• Cerundolo's double-fault rate is 3.7%, Nakashima's is 2.2%.
• Cerundolo averages ~3 double faults per match; Nakashima ~2.
• Pressure of a semi-final could increase unforced errors.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Close serving stats and Cerundolo's recent tiebreak frequency make a tiebreak likely in this match.

• Cerundolo has played a tiebreak in 2 of 3 matches this week.
• Nakashima's tiebreak win rate is 53%, Cerundolo's is 54%.
• Both have strong first-serve win rates, making breaks harder.