PortugalBraga - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Vilius Gaubas #141Lithuania2Duje Ajdukovic #353Croatia1

Sets 5-7 · 7-6 · 6-2Thu 8 Oct 2026, 16:43 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 212 places

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Lithuanian player, age 21, seeded 14th in the 2026 US Open qualifying draw. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.

Current ranking: #141
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Duje Ajdukovic

Croatia

Croatian right-hander whose career-high ranking was No. 105 in September 2024.

Current ranking: #353
Peak ranking: #105 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Gaubas, the third seed and No. 141, meets a former top-105 opponent now ranked 353 in the Braga second round.

Gaubas should win, most likely inside two sets on clay, but the 1.3 quoted on him asks for far more than his 5-6 clay record justifies. The 3.2 on Ajdukovic is the one quoted price that offers anything.

Context

Clay is the surface both men name as their preference, so the fixture is set on conditions that suit each of them rather than creating a surface mismatch. The event is a mid-level Challenger with a €97,000 prize fund, so ranking points and prize money carry weight for two players sitting outside the top 100. With both at home on the slow surface, the court points to extended baseline rallies rather than separating the pair.
- Braga Challenger starts
- The event is played on clay
- Prize money is €97,000
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger 2026matchstat.com · 5 Oct 2026
Gaubas is the highest-ranked player in this pairing and began the tournament by taking care of a home opponent without dropping a set, so the fixture's widest ranking gap sits on his side. The second set closed at 7-5 against a player ranked 584, tighter than the opening 6-1 suggests. He now has one completed match on the Braga clay, the surface he lists as his preference, heading into the second round.
- Gaubas is seeded third at the 2026 Braga Challenger
- Gaubas is ranked No. 141
- Beat Joao Domingues 6-1 7-5
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger 2026matchstat.com · 5 Oct 2026
Ajdukovic is ranked 353 but reached a career-high No. 105 in September 2024, so his current standing sits well below the level he has shown during his career. His opening win cost only four games against a top-300 opponent, a rare straightforward result in a season otherwise filled with long three-set matches. The ranking gap of more than 200 places remains a step up, and one comfortable first round does not show how he holds up against a seeded opponent.
- Ajdukovic beat Filip Cristian Jianu 6-2 6-2
- Career-high ranking of No. 105 in September 2024
- Currently ranked No. 353
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger 2026matchstat.com · 5 Oct 2026
The pair have met once before and that match went Gaubas's way. A single completed match between two players with a similar clay profile is thin evidence and does not establish any repeating pattern in the matchup. Both won their opening matches here in straight sets two days earlier, so the head-to-head is a minor historical note rather than a guide to how the second round will unfold.
- Second-round match scheduled for 7 October 2026
- Gaubas leads the head-to-head 1-0
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 01:07 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger 2026matchstat.com · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas sits far higher in the rankings, has the steadier clay serve and return numbers, and won the only previous meeting between them.
- Gaubas is ranked No. 141 and seeded third; Ajdukovic is No. 353
- Clay record: Gaubas 5-6 in 11 matches, Ajdukovic 6-8 in 14
- Gaubas clay serve numbers: 63.1% first serves in, 66.3% first-serve points won, 49.7% total points won
- Gaubas leads the head-to-head 1-0 and won his opener 6-1 7-5
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay last longer than first sets for both players, averaging above ten games each.
- Gaubas's clay second sets average 10.5 total games
- Ajdukovic's clay second sets average 10.2 total games
- Both players have had 2 second-set tiebreaks on clay
- Gaubas's average second set has 5.09 games won against 5.45 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The favourite's shorter matches and the low three-set rate in his own record point marginally below the line.
- Gaubas's clay average is 21.6 games per match against a 23.5 line
- Gaubas has played only 3 three-set matches in 11 on clay
- Ajdukovic's clay average is 25.1 games per match
- Ajdukovic's straight-set wins this week came 6-2 6-2
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gaubas's first sets finish quickly more often than not, which is enough to shade this just under the line.
- Gaubas's clay first sets average 8.9 total games, below the line
- Gaubas has just 2 first-set tiebreaks in 11 clay matches
- Ajdukovic's clay first sets average 10.1 total games
- Gaubas opened with a 6-1 set in his first-round win
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas's clay matches usually end in two sets, and the ranking gap points to a straighter match than Ajdukovic's own recent run.
- Gaubas has completed 8 of 11 clay matches in straight sets
- Gaubas's average match on clay lasts 2.27 sets
- Ajdukovic's 14 clay matches average 2.5 sets
- Neither player's recent clay scorelines dominate the third-set column
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas is the higher-ranked player and starts clay matches slightly more often than not with the first set.
- Gaubas has won the opening set in 6 of 11 clay matches
- Ajdukovic has won the opening set in 8 of 14 clay matches
- Gaubas is ranked No. 141 against No. 353
- Gaubas won his opener 6-1 7-5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay have been close to even for both players, with Gaubas's ranking giving him a slight pull.
- Gaubas has won the second set in 5 of 11 clay matches
- Ajdukovic has won the second set in 7 of 14 clay matches
- Gaubas's clay set-two games average is 5.09 won against 5.45 lost
- Ajdukovic's set-two games average is 5.14 won against 5.07 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most clay matches for both players finish without a tiebreak, and Gaubas in particular usually settles sets before 6-6.
- Gaubas has had no tiebreak in 8 of 11 clay matches
- Ajdukovic has had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 clay matches
- Gaubas's recent 6-1 7-5 win contained no tiebreak
- Gaubas's clay matches average only 21.6 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance63%

Prediction history

Vilius Gaubas: 5/8 recent winner projections matched

5 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Vilius Gaubas matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Vilius Gaubas8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#129Vilius Gaubas2-1#195Michael Mmoh

BetBugsVilius Gaubas to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#129Vilius Gaubas2-1#195Michael Mmoh

Vilius Gaubas to win

62%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Matched

9 Jun·Lyon - France

#267Miguel Damas2-0#133Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsVilius Gaubas to win·72%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Lyon - France

#267Miguel Damas2-0#133Vilius Gaubas

Vilius Gaubas to win

72%probability

Miguel Damas won

Missed

1 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#189Timofey Skatov2-1#133Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsVilius Gaubas to win·58%

Missed

1 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#189Timofey Skatov2-1#133Vilius Gaubas

Vilius Gaubas to win

58%probability

Timofey Skatov won

Missed

20 May·ATP Roland Garros

#133Vilius Gaubas2-1#200Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsVilius Gaubas to win·62%

Matched

20 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#133Vilius Gaubas2-1#200Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Vilius Gaubas to win

62%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Matched

12 May·Oeiras - Portugal

#121Vilius Gaubas2-1#238Frederico Ferreira Silva

BetBugsVilius Gaubas to win·58%

Matched

12 May 2026

Oeiras - Portugal

#121Vilius Gaubas2-1#238Frederico Ferreira Silva

Vilius Gaubas to win

58%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Matched

Previous match context available

Vilius Gaubas

7W 8L

6-1 7-5#584Joao Domingues

6-4 6-4#78Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 3-6 6-0#410Pavel Lagutin

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-3#163Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-6(1)#270Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-4 6-4#226Max Houkes

6-2 6-3#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#287Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-1 7-5#207Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-3#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(1) 7-5#95Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

Duje Ajdukovic

7W 8L

6-2 6-2#289Filip Cristian Jianu

6-3 4-6 6-4#668Imanol Lopez Morillo

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 7-5#306Filippo Romano

2-6 6-3 6-2#240Jay Clarke

7-6(5) 5-7 6-2#382Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

7-6(1) 6-2#231Raul Brancaccio

3-6 7-6(3) 6-2#329Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-3 6-3#270Kilian Feldbausch

7-6(3) ret.#444Khumoun Sultanov

7-6(13) 6-1#168Gauthier Onclin

6-3 6-4#163Marco Cecchinato

3-6 7-5 6-4#253Sumit Nagal

7-5 7-5#378Franco Agamenone

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(11)#468Radu Albot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VGVilius GaubasGaubas

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Duje AjdukovicAjdukovicDA

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.7%+6.7pp57.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1568.3%+1.9pp70.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.7%+2.6pp48.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.6+1.14.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.70.8 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.7%+2.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1545.6%+3.3pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.4%+2.2pp62.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.2%—50.4%

Serve · 3–2

63.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.7pp57.0%

68.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.9pp70.2%

50.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.6pp48.1%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.14.7

1.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

37.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

45.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp42.3%

60.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp62.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—50.4%