FranceATP Roland GarrosFinished

Predictions graded

Vilius Gaubas #133Lithuania2Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #200Brazil1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Wed 20 May 2026, 14:40 Predictions gradedQ2Clay

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 67 places

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Career-high No. 101 came in March 2026. His schedule and results are strongly clay-weighted, and no clear decline pattern surfaced in the requested search.

Current ranking: #133
Peak ranking: #101 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

Career-high No. 187 came in November 2025. His lower-tier schedule is heavily clay-based, and public profiles point to an earlier injury-hit spell before his later rise rather than a fresh decline signal.

Current ranking: #200
Peak ranking: #187 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 10:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Vilius Gaubas is favored based on a dominant head-to-head win and superior clay pedigree, but the 1.29 odds offer no value.

The best betting angle is Gaubas to win 2-0 at 1.83, which carries a slim positive edge, though confidence is only medium.

Context

Gaubas won 6-2, 6-3 in their only previous match on clay in February 2026.
- He won 68% of first-serve points and 49% of return points, while Reis Da Silva won only 44% on first serve and 38% on return.
- Gaubas converted 80% of break points, breaking serve four times.
Gaubas defeated Federico Coria 6-4, 6-1 in the first qualifying round on 18 May 2026.
- He lost only five games in the match, showing efficient play.
- Coria is ranked 886, but the scoreline indicates Gaubas was in control.
Reis Da Silva has a career deciding-set win rate of 46%.
- Gaubas has a career deciding-set win rate of 63%.
- In best-of-3 qualifying, a third set is possible, and Gaubas has been more reliable in those situations.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Gaubas's dominant H2H win, superior clay pedigree, and higher ranking support a win, but the odds overestimate his probability.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Gaubas's 85% career first-set win conversion and dominant H2H first set suggest he is likely to take the opener.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Gaubas's superior clay pedigree, dominant H2H win earlier this year, and stronger recent qualifying performance give him a clear edge in this best-of-3 clay match.
- H2H: Gaubas won their only meeting 6-2 6-3 on clay in Feb 2026, dominating serve and return (68% 1st-serve win, 49% return points won vs Reis da Silva's 44% and 38%).
- Surface fit: Gaubas is a clay specialist with 160 career clay wins (59.5% overall win rate) and a 12-11 clay record in 2026; Reis da Silva has 212 clay wins but a lower career win rate (55.3%) and a 12-11 clay record in 2026.
- Recent form: Gaubas beat Federico Coria 6-4 6-1 in Q1, while Reis da Silva beat Calvin Hemery 6-4 6-4; Gaubas's win was more dominant and against a higher-ranked opponent (886 vs 276).
- Ranking edge: Gaubas is ranked 133 vs Reis da Silva's 200, indicating a consistent performance gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVilius GaubasEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H and recent straight-set wins suggest a relatively quick match, but the low confidence reflects the potential for closer sets given both players' clay competence.
- H2H: Their only match had 17 total games (6-2 6-3).
- Recent matches: Gaubas's last match had 17 games (6-4 6-1); Reis da Silva's last match had 20 games (6-4 6-4).
- Serve/return: Both players have similar serve stats, but Gaubas's return points won (41% career) slightly edges Reis da Silva (42%), and Gaubas's break point conversion (44%) is identical.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While recent first sets have been 10 games, the H2H and Gaubas's strong starting tendency hint at a potentially shorter opener, though the evidence is thin.
- H2H: First set was 6-2 (8 games).
- Recent first sets: Gaubas's last first set was 6-4 (10 games); Reis da Silva's last first set was 6-4 (10 games).
- Gaubas's first-set dominance: 85% conversion rate suggests he often wins sets comfortably.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas's ability to close out sets efficiently, as seen in the H2H and recent match, suggests a potential under, but the margin is slim.
- H2H: Second set was 6-3 (9 games).
- Recent second sets: Gaubas's last second set was 6-1 (7 games); Reis da Silva's last second set was 6-4 (10 games).
- Both players have similar second-set performance trends, but Gaubas's recent dominance in closing sets is notable.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H and recent performance suggest Gaubas could cover a -3.5 game handicap, but the low confidence reflects the variability in qualifying matches.
- H2H: Gaubas won by 7 games (12-5) in their only match.
- Recent margins: Gaubas's last win was by 7 games (12-5); Reis da Silva's last win was by 4 games (12-8).
- Average game differential: Gaubas's recent wins show a tendency for larger margins against lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostVilius Gaubas -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas's superior deciding-set record and the H2H straight-set outcome make a 2-0 result likely.
- H2H: Their only match was a straight-set win for Gaubas.
- Recent form: Gaubas's last match was a straight-set win; Reis da Silva's last match was a straight-set win, but he has a 46% career deciding-set win rate vs Gaubas's 63%.
- Format: Best-of-3 qualifying match; both players prefer to avoid deciders, but Gaubas has a significant edge in deciding sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Gaubas's high first-set win conversion rate and dominant H2H first set suggest he is likely to take the opener.
- First-set conversion: Gaubas has an 85% career first-set win conversion rate, indicating he starts matches strongly.
- H2H: In their only meeting, Gaubas won the first set 6-2.
- Recent form: Gaubas won his last first set 6-4 against Coria; Reis da Silva won his last first set 6-4 against Hemery but struggled in previous matches (lost first set in 3 of last 5).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Gaubas's H2H dominance and better deciding-set record support a straight-set victory, though Reis da Silva's recent form adds some uncertainty.
- H2H: Gaubas won 2-0 in their only meeting.
- Deciding-set edge: Gaubas has a 63% career deciding-set win rate vs Reis da Silva's 46%.
- Recent straight-set wins: Gaubas won his last match 2-0; Reis da Silva won his last match 2-0 but has a lower overall straight-set win rate.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostVilius Gaubas 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H and recent match trends, combined with the clay surface reducing serve dominance, make a tiebreak unlikely.
- H2H: No tiebreaks in their only match.
- Tiebreak rates: Gaubas has a 47% career tiebreak win rate; Reis da Silva has a 56% rate, but both have low tiebreak frequencies.
- Recent matches: Gaubas's last 5 matches had 1 tiebreak; Reis da Silva's last 5 had 0 tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and the clay surface further suppresses aces, making under 7.5 likely.
- Ace rates: Gaubas has a 3.2% ace rate; Reis da Silva has a 3.6% ace rate.
- H2H: Only 7 total aces in their match (5 for Gaubas, 2 for Reis da Silva).
- Clay surface: Typically reduces ace counts due to slower conditions.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Reis da Silva's higher double fault rate and the pressure of qualifying could push the total over 5.5, though the evidence is not strong.
- Double fault rates: Gaubas has a 2.6% double fault rate; Reis da Silva has a 3.4% double fault rate.
- Career double faults: Reis da Silva has 1094 double faults in 481 matches (2.3 per match); Gaubas has 573 in 316 matches (1.8 per match).
- H2H: Double fault data unavailable, but both players' rates suggest a combined average around 4-5 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-3Vilius Gaubas#133vJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva#200Feb 21, 2026

1 total meetings

Vilius Gaubas

6W 9L

6-4 6-1#886Federico Coria

3-6 6-4 6-3#336Petr Brunclik

6-3 2-6 6-1#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-2#121Leandro Riedi

6-3 6-4#5Felix Auger Aliassime

7-5 6-1#62Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#152Rei Sakamoto

6-2 6-4#140Arthur Gea

7-6(13) 6-4#56Hamad Medjedovic

7-6(1) 7-5#137Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-1#62Sebastian Baez

6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4)#234Max Houkes

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1#306Abedallah Shelbayh

7-6(2) 6-2#242Alejandro Moro Canas

3-6 6-2 6-2#55Yannick Hanfmann

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#276Calvin Hemery

7-5 6-2#143Elmer Moller

6-4 6-1#240Luka Pavlovic

6-4 1-0 ret.#165Clement Tabur

6-2 2-6 6-4#443Jack Kennedy

6-4 4-6 6-4#232Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-3 7-5#164Liam Draxl

6-2 6-3#358Nicolas Kicker

6-2 6-1#187Gustavo Heide

4-6 6-2 6-3#139Hugo Dellien

4-6 6-1 6-2#227Franco Roncadelli

6-3 6-3#461Valerio Aboian

7-6(5) 1-6 6-3#505Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-1 3-6 6-4#232Pedro Boscardin Dias

3-6 6-4 7-5#389Daniel Dutra Da Silva

Vilius Gaubas

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Vilius Gaubas 2-0

Vilius Gaubas

Vilius Gaubas

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva