Lyon - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Miguel Damas #267Spain2Vilius Gaubas #133Lithuania0

Sets 6-4 · 6-0Tue 9 Jun 2026, 12:02 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 134 places

Miguel Damas

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 257 on 2026-05-18. Public profile listings describe him as a 208cm right-hander with a hard-court preference.

Current ranking: #267
Peak ranking: #257 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 208 cm

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Reached a career-high No. 101 on 2026-03-02. Public profile sources show most of his title success has come on clay.

Current ranking: #133
Peak ranking: #101 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jun 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Gaubas is a heavy favorite with a 3-0 H2H record, all in straight sets, and superior clay-court form.

The best value is under 2.5 total sets at 1.73, with a 7.2-point edge over the implied probability. Avoid backing Gaubas 2-0 at short odds, as Damas has shown he can push sets and Gaubas has been prone to three-setters recently.

Context

Gaubas won 6-4 6-4 on clay in April 2023, 6-7(10) 6-0 6-4 on clay in April 2023, and 6-4 6-3 on hard in February 2022.
- In H2H matches, Gaubas won 70% of first-serve points and converted 47% of break points, while Damas won only 56% on first serve and converted 30% of break points.
- Damas has not won a set in three attempts, and the only tiebreak he forced ended in a 10-8 loss.
In his last five matches, Damas lost to Lorenzo Carboni (rank 477), Jaime Faria (rank 115), James Duckworth (rank 82), and Tristan Boyer (rank 199), winning only against Mika Brunold (rank 387).
- Three of those four losses were in straight sets, and he won only one game against Faria.
- His recent wins have come against lower-ranked opponents, while Gaubas has beaten top-100 players like Sebastian Baez and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the same period.
In April 2026, Gaubas beat Baez 7-5 6-1 and earlier beat Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (rank 198) in three sets.
- He also pushed Skatov (rank 189) to three sets in his most recent match on June 1, 2026.
- His losses in the last 15 matches have come against players ranked 6, 58, 64, 100, 120, 122, 138, and 189, indicating he competes well at a higher level than Damas typically faces.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Gaubas has a dominant H2H record, superior recent form against stronger opposition, and a higher ranking, making him the clear favorite on clay.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Gaubas' H2H dominance and Damas' recent first-set struggles make Gaubas the likely set 1 winner.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Vilius Gaubas

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Gaubas' H2H dominance and Damas' poor second-set record point to Gaubas winning set 2.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Vilius Gaubas 2-0

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Gaubas has dominated all three H2H meetings in straight sets, and Damas struggles to win sets against stronger clay-court players.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gaubas has a dominant H2H record, superior recent form against stronger opposition, and a higher ranking, making him the clear favorite on clay.
- Gaubas leads H2H 3-0, all in straight sets, including two clay wins in 2023.
- Gaubas has a 59.1% career win rate vs Damas' 58.1%, but Gaubas' clay win rate is higher (161 wins vs 207 for Damas, but Gaubas has played fewer matches and has a higher peak ranking of 101 vs 257).
- Gaubas' recent form includes wins over top-100 players (Baez, Auger-Aliassime) and a 3-set loss to Skatov (rank 189) on clay, while Damas has lost 4 of his last 5, including to players ranked 477 and 485.
- Gaubas is seeded No. 3 in this Challenger, indicating a higher current level.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches and H2H history trend toward shorter matches, supporting under 21.5 total games.
- H2H matches averaged 19.3 games per match, all under 21.5.
- Damas' last 5 matches averaged 18.6 games, with 4 of 5 under 21.5.
- Gaubas' last 5 matches averaged 20.2 games, with 3 of 5 under 21.5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas has consistently won by at least 4 games against Damas, and recent margins support a -3.5 handicap.
- Gaubas covered -3.5 games in all three H2H wins (margins of 5, 4, and 5 games).
- Damas' last 5 losses had an average margin of 5.6 games.
- Gaubas' last 5 wins had an average margin of 5.2 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostVilius Gaubas -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends and H2H data suggest a relatively quick first set, likely under 9.5 games.
- H2H first sets averaged 9.3 games, with two of three under 9.5.
- Damas' last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 under 9.5.
- Gaubas' last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 under 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this matchup have historically been short, and recent form supports under 9.5 games.
- H2H second sets averaged 8.7 games, all under 9.5.
- Damas' last 5 second sets averaged 8.8 games, with 4 under 9.5.
- Gaubas' last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 under 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Gaubas' strong H2H record and Damas' recent first-set struggles make Gaubas the likely set 1 winner.
- Gaubas won the first set in all three H2H meetings.
- Gaubas has won the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches, while Damas has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5.
- Gaubas' first-set win conversion rate is 84%, compared to Damas' 85%, but Gaubas faces weaker opposition here.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
The H2H and recent form strongly indicate a straight-set outcome, making under 2.5 sets likely.
- All three H2H matches ended in straight sets.
- Damas has lost in straight sets in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Gaubas has won in straight sets in 5 of his last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gaubas' H2H dominance and Damas' poor second-set record point to Gaubas winning set 2.
- Gaubas won the second set in all three H2H matches.
- Damas has lost the second set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Gaubas has won the second set in 5 of his last 10 matches, often closing out matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostVilius GaubasEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Given Gaubas' straight-set wins in all H2H meetings and Damas' recent struggles to win sets against weaker opposition, a 2-0 victory is likely.
- All three H2H matches ended in straight sets for Gaubas.
- Damas has lost in straight sets in 3 of his last 5 matches, including to lower-ranked players.
- Gaubas has won 5 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, including against top-100 opponents.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostVilius Gaubas 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H and recent form show few tiebreaks, making it unlikely in this match.
- Only 1 of 7 sets in H2H went to a tiebreak.
- Damas has played only 1 tiebreak in his last 5 matches.
- Gaubas has played 2 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and H2H data shows low ace counts, making under 7.5 aces probable.
- H2H matches averaged 3.7 aces per match (Gaubas 3.3, Damas 0.3).
- Damas' ace rate is 1.6% (career), Gaubas' is 3.3%, but both are low-volume servers.
- Recent matches: Damas averaged 1.2 aces per match in last 5, Gaubas averaged 2.8.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damas' high double fault rate and recent trends suggest the combined total could exceed 5.5.
- H2H matches averaged 3.7 double faults per match, but Damas had 6 in one match.
- Damas' double fault rate is 3.8% (career), higher than Gaubas' 2.6%.
- Damas averaged 3.2 double faults in his last 5 matches, Gaubas 2.0, totaling 5.2 on average.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-3 (3 meetings)

L6-7(10) 6-0 6-4Miguel Damas#267vVilius Gaubas#133Apr 19, 2023

L6-4 6-4Miguel Damas#267vVilius Gaubas#133Apr 9, 2023

L6-4 6-3Miguel Damas#267vVilius Gaubas#133Feb 22, 2022

Vilius Gaubas dominates (3 meetings)3 total meetings

Miguel Damas

5W 10L

6-7(2) 6-4 7-5#87Damir Dzumhur

6-7(7) 6-3 6-4#199Tristan Boyer

3-6 7-5 6-3#82James Duckworth

7-5 6-3#477Lorenzo Carboni

6-1 6-0#115Jaime Faria

6-3 6-1#387Mika Brunold

7-6(2) 6-4#128Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 7-6(5)#485Matthew William Donald

6-3 6-4—Piet Luis Pinter

6-4 6-4#359Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-3 6-3#387Mika Brunold

6-1 ret.#180Nicolas Jarry

6-2 4-6 6-2#274Daniel Rincon

3-6 6-3 6-1#311Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 6-1#57Daniel Altmaier

Vilius Gaubas

6W 9L

4-6 6-4 6-2#189Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2 2-6 7-5#100Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#122Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 6-3 6-4#198Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-4 6-1#887Federico Coria

3-6 6-4 6-3#333Petr Brunclik

6-3 2-6 6-1#237Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-2#120Leandro Riedi

6-3 6-4#6Felix Auger Aliassime

7-5 6-1#64Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#153Rei Sakamoto

6-2 6-4#135Arthur Gea

7-6(13) 6-4#58Hamad Medjedovic

7-6(1) 7-5#138Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-1#64Sebastian Baez

Miguel Damas

Vilius Gaubas

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Vilius Gaubas

Vilius Gaubas

Vilius Gaubas

Vilius Gaubas 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Miguel Damas

Vilius Gaubas