Aleksandar Kovacevic #81United States11 – 2Matteo Berrettini #46Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Berrettini's higher ranking and better overall win rate make him the more likely winner of a first-round match between two players short of recent hard-court form.

• Berrettini is ranked 46th, Kovacevic 81st
• Berrettini has won 9 of his last 14 completed matches
• He is only 3-4 on hard courts in his last 7 completed matches
• Kovacevic has lost 10 of his last 15 completed matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' first sets sit right around ten games, with break chances limited by strong serving.

• Berrettini's first sets average 9.6 games and Kovacevic's 9.8
• Kovacevic's first sets have reached a tiebreak twice in eleven matches
• Berrettini has played one first-set tiebreak in five matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players serve well enough to keep sets tight, and Berrettini in particular has been playing long matches recently.

• Berrettini's recent best-of-three hard matches average 27.8 games, Kovacevic's 24.0
• Four of Berrettini's five such matches and four of Kovacevic's eleven went to a deciding set
• Kovacevic's hard-court matches average 102.6 minutes

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Berrettini has been much stronger in second sets than first sets recently, and he is the better player overall.

• Berrettini has won four of five second sets in recent best-of-three hard matches, averaging 5.6 games won
• Kovacevic's second-set record in eleven such matches is 5-6
• Berrettini has won 9 of his last 14 completed matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Berrettini has repeatedly been taken to a deciding set and Kovacevic's matches often run long, so a three-set match is slightly more likely than not.

• Four of Berrettini's five recent best-of-three hard matches went to a deciding set, averaging 2.8 sets
• Four of Kovacevic's eleven such matches went to three sets, averaging 2.36
• Both players have lost the opening set frequently in this window

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players hold serve well enough that sets often reach 6-6, and tiebreaks have been common in their recent matches.

• Six of Kovacevic's eleven recent best-of-three hard matches featured a tiebreak
• Four of Berrettini's five such matches featured a tiebreak
• Both players have lost first sets frequently, pushing sets towards 7-6