Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Berrettini's elite grass-court serve and recent Wimbledon wins over higher-ranked opponents give him a clear edge over Dimitrov, whose grass form is solid but less dominant against top-50 competition.
- Berrettini career grass win% 83.9 (47-9), Dimitrov 67.0 (61-30)
- Berrettini 2026 grass: 2-0, both wins in Bo5 at Wimbledon vs Fils (rank 24) and Wawrinka
- Dimitrov 2026 grass: 6-2 but losses to Davidovich Fokina (rank 23) and Jacquet (rank 139); best win vs Mensik (rank 18)
- Berrettini serve: ace rate 11.5%, 1st serve win 77.5%, break save 68.1% vs Dimitrov ace rate 9%, 1st serve win 75.3%, break save 63.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatteo BerrettiniEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With two big servers on grass, extended sets and potential tiebreaks are likely, pushing the total games over 36.5 in a best-of-five format.
- Berrettini's last two Wimbledon matches: 40 games vs Fils, 52 games vs Wawrinka
- Dimitrov's last Wimbledon match: 44 games vs Mensik
- Both players have strong holds: Berrettini 1st serve win 77.5%, Dimitrov 75.3%
- H2H matches: 26 games (2019 I.hard) and 22 games (2019 clay), but Bo3; Bo5 likely extends
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 36.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The serving strength of both players on grass suggests a tight first set, likely exceeding 9.5 games with a possible tiebreak.
- Berrettini's last two Wimbledon 1st sets: 10 games vs Fils, 13 games (tiebreak) vs Wawrinka
- Dimitrov's last Wimbledon 1st set: 13 games (tiebreak) vs Mensik
- Both players have high hold percentages on grass, reducing early breaks
- H2H 1st sets: 13 games (tiebreak) and 12 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dimitrov is likely to be competitive and cover a +3.5 game handicap in a match expected to be tight, even if Berrettini wins.
- Dimitrov's last Wimbledon match: lost games 20-24 vs Mensik (4-set win)
- Berrettini's last Wimbledon match: won games 22-18 vs Fils (4-set win)
- H2H matches were close: 7-6 7-6 and 7-5 6-4
- Dimitrov's grass-court experience and recent form suggest he can keep it close
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonGrigor Dimitrov +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' recent four-set matches and competitive grass-court form, the match is likely to extend beyond three sets.
- Berrettini's last two Wimbledon matches went 4 sets
- Dimitrov's last Wimbledon match went 4 sets
- Both players have shown ability to win sets against quality opponents on grass
- Bo5 format on grass with two strong servers increases likelihood of at least 4 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Berrettini's strong start in recent Wimbledon matches and superior first-strike tennis on grass make him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Berrettini 1st set win% career: 86% when winning 1st set; Dimitrov 86%
- Berrettini won 1st set in both Wimbledon 2026 matches (6-4 vs Fils, 6-7 loss but won tiebreak vs Wawrinka)
- Dimitrov lost 1st set in 2 of last 5 matches, including vs Mensik (won 7-6) and Davidovich Fokina (lost 3-6)
- Berrettini's serve advantage on grass gives him early control
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatteo BerrettiniEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Berrettini's strong serving and recent pattern of winning the second set at Wimbledon give him a slight edge to take set 2.
- Berrettini won 2nd set in both Wimbledon 2026 matches (7-5 vs Fils, 7-6 vs Wawrinka)
- Dimitrov lost 2nd set vs Mensik (4-6) but won vs Sweeny (6-3)
- Berrettini's serve holds up well in middle sets
- Momentum from likely 1st set win carries into 2nd set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMatteo BerrettiniEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
With two big servers on grass, the probability of at least one tiebreak is very high, as evidenced by recent Wimbledon matches for both players.
- Berrettini's last match vs Wawrinka had 4 tiebreaks; previous match vs Fils had none but tight sets
- Dimitrov's last match vs Mensik had 1 tiebreak; previous match vs Sweeny had 1 tiebreak
- Career tiebreak win%: Berrettini 56%, Dimitrov 54%
- Both players have high 1st serve win% on grass, leading to tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players rely on their serves on grass, and a four-set match should produce over 22.5 combined aces given their ace rates.
- Berrettini career ace rate 11.5%, Dimitrov 9%
- Berrettini averaged ~15 aces per match in last two Wimbledon matches (estimated from ace rate and games)
- Dimitrov averaged ~10 aces per match in last two Wimbledon matches
- Bo5 format on grass extends ace opportunities
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 22.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Grigor Dimitrov #1463Matteo Berrettini #51Italy2

Player Profiles

Grigor Dimitrov

Matteo Berrettini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Matteo Berrettini

Over 22.5

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini 3-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Grigor Dimitrov

Matteo Berrettini