Stan Wawrinka #110Switzerland11 – 3Matteo Berrettini #49Italy3

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Berrettini's elite grass-court pedigree (78.9% career win rate, 2021 Wimbledon finalist) and superior serve metrics give him a decisive edge over Wawrinka, whose grass record is modest and recent form is poor.

• Berrettini career grass win% 45-12 (78.9%), Wawrinka 35-28 (55.6%)
• Berrettini 2024 grass: 6-3, Wawrinka 2024 grass: 1-1; no 2025-26 grass matches for either
• Berrettini ace rate 11.5% vs Wawrinka 8.7%, first-serve points won 77.4% vs 73.9%
• Berrettini recent form: 4-1 at RG before retirement, Wawrinka 2-6 on clay in last 8

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With two strong servers and Wawrinka's competitiveness in losses, a four-set match with multiple tight sets is likely, pushing total games over 36.5.

• Berrettini's last 5 Bo5 matches averaged 37.6 games; Wawrinka's last 5 averaged 35.8
• Wawrinka 4 of last 5 losses had 33+ games; Berrettini 3 of last 5 wins had 37+ games
• Both players have break-point save rates near 65%, extending sets
• Grass matches between big servers often feature tiebreaks and long sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Given both players' strong serving and recent first-set trends, a tight opening set with at least 10 games is probable.

• Berrettini's last 5 first sets: 7-5, 7-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-7 (avg 10.2 games)
• Wawrinka's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 6-7, 6-2, 4-6, 3-6 (avg 9.0 games, but 3 of 5 had 10+ games)
• Both players have high first-serve win%, reducing early breaks
• Grass-court first sets often go to tiebreaks or 7-5

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Wawrinka's competitiveness in losses and Berrettini's tendency for close early-round matches suggest Wawrinka can stay within 5.5 games.

• Wawrinka's last 5 losses: game differentials of -5, -2, -3, -5, -7 (avg -4.4)
• Berrettini's last 5 wins: game differentials of +5, +1, +6, +10, +5 (avg +5.4)
• Wawrinka has covered +5.5 in 4 of last 5 losses
• Berrettini's margin of victory is often narrow in early rounds

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Wawrinka's ability to win a set in most competitive losses and Berrettini's tendency to drop sets make a four-set match more likely than a straight-sets win.

• Berrettini's last 5 Bo5 matches: 4 went 4+ sets; Wawrinka's last 5: 3 went 4+ sets
• Wawrinka has taken a set in 4 of last 5 losses vs top-50
• Berrettini's 3-0 wins are rare (1 in last 10 Bo5 matches)
• Both players have comeback rates around 30%, indicating set-level resilience

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' strong serving and recent tiebreak frequency, at least one tiebreak in this match is highly likely.

• Berrettini tiebreak win% 56%, Wawrinka 53%
• Berrettini played tiebreaks in 4 of last 5 matches; Wawrinka in 3 of last 5
• Grass matches between big servers have tiebreak probability >70%
• Both players have high first-serve win%, leading to tight sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With two big servers on grass in a likely four-set match, the combined ace count should comfortably exceed 25.5.

• Berrettini ace rate 11.5% (career 4453 aces in 562 matches), Wawrinka 8.7% (7091 in 1164)
• In Bo5 grass matches, Berrettini averages ~18 aces, Wawrinka ~12
• Combined ace rate ~10% on ~250 points per match = ~25 aces
• Grass surface amplifies ace counts for both players

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively low double-fault rates, and in a match with ~250 points, the total double faults are likely to stay under 7.5.

• Berrettini double-fault rate 2.3%, Wawrinka 2.9%
• Combined double-fault rate ~2.6% on ~250 points = ~6.5 double faults
• Both players have low double-fault rates on grass historically
• In recent matches, neither player has exceeded 3 double faults per set