ItalyPalermo - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Samuele Pieri #386Italy0Martin Krumich #255Czechia2

Sets 0-6 · 4-6Tue 6 Oct 2026, 08:14 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Krumich · 131 places

Samuele Pieri

Italy

Italian player, born February 28, 2002. Public player databases list a career-best No. 398 in June 2026; no current injury or absence signal was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #386
Peak ranking: #398 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Krumich is a 23-year-old Czech right-hander. ITF records list clay as his preferred surface and No. 268 as his career-high ATP singles ranking, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #268 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Pieri is the lower-ranked player yet owns the better clay form, and Krumich's 254 ranking is the counterweight.

Pieri looks the likelier winner of this Palermo first round. The reviewed prices agree: 2.4 for Pieri to win the match, 2.2 for the first set, 2.2 for the second and 3.8 for a straight-set win all hold up, while Krumich's 1.55 to win the match and 1.6 in the sets do not.

Context

Krumich is the higher-ranked player here but gives away ground in the opening sets.
Pieri has won the opening set in 10 of his 15 clay matches over a similar period and averages more first-set games won, 5.33 to 4.43, so a slow Krumich start is what the recent record supports. Only one match in Krumich's 14-match sample contained a tiebreak, and one retired match is excluded from that aggregate, so the sample is short.
- 29 July to 2 October 2026, 14 clay matches: 6 first sets won, 8 lost, averaging 4.43 games won and 4.57 conceded per opening set.
- One first-set tiebreak in those 14 matches; one retired match is excluded from the sample.
Pieri is ranked 398 but brings the better recent clay results into this first round.
Sachko, ranked 179, sits 219 places above Pieri, so winning in three sets on 3 October is a stronger result than Pieri's own ranking suggests. The caveat is that this is one match inside a 15-match clay sample, and Pieri also lost 4-6 2-6 to Juan Cruz Martin Manzano, ranked 426, on 21 September.
- 3 October 2026 (clay): Pieri beat Vitaliy Sachko, ranked 179, 5-7 6-4 6-2, winning 17 games to 13.
- Sachko is ranked 219 places above Pieri, who sits at 398 in the same records.
Krumich is the higher-ranked player at 254 yet has the patchier recent clay record.
The scoreline shows Krumich taking the opening set and then being outplayed in the next two against an opponent ranked 206 places below him. He had beaten Pierluigi Basile, ranked 542, 2-0 the previous day, so the pattern is uneven form rather than a settled decline, and this is one result inside a 14-match clay sample.
- 2 October 2026 (clay): Krumich lost to Matthew William Donald, ranked 460, 6-4 1-6 3-6, winning 10 games to 16.
- Donald is ranked 206 places below Krumich, who is ranked 254; the match is one of the 14 completed clay matches in Krumich's sample from 29 July to 2 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Pieri's stronger recent clay results and higher set-win rate make him the likely winner, though Krumich is ranked higher.
- Pieri is 11-4 on clay in this sample; Krumich is 6-8.
- Pieri has won 24 of 36 sets (66.7%) on clay; Krumich has won 14 of 32 sets (43.8%).
- Pieri's recent clay wins include victories over Sachko (rank 179) and Taberner (rank 376); Krumich lost to Recek (rank 849) and Donald (rank 460) in his last four.
- Pieri's average clay match lasts 22.1 games; Krumich's lasts 20.6 games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance66%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is below the line, favoring the under.
- Pieri's second sets average 8.8 total games on clay.
- Krumich's second sets average 9.07 total games on clay.
- Combined second-set average is about 8.94 games.
- No second-set tiebreaks for Krumich and one for Pieri in these samples.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits below the line, favoring the under.
- Pieri's first sets average 9.4 total games on clay.
- Krumich's first sets average 9.0 total games on clay.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.2 games.
- Only two first-set tiebreaks in the combined 29 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's lower game totals slightly favor the under, but the line is very close.
- Krumich's clay matches average 20.57 total games.
- Pieri's clay matches average 22.07 total games.
- Four of Krumich's last six clay matches finished under 21.5 games.
- Three of Pieri's last six clay matches finished at 20 games or fewer.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent clay matches have ended in straight sets.
- Pieri's clay scorelines: 7 wins 2-0, 4 wins 2-1, 2 losses 0-2, 2 losses 1-2.
- Krumich's clay scorelines: 4 wins 2-0, 2 wins 2-1, 6 losses 0-2, 2 losses 1-2.
- Combined, 17 of 29 clay matches ended in straight sets.
- Pieri's total sets average is 2.4; Krumich's is 2.29.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Pieri's strong first-set record on clay gives him the clear advantage to start.
- Pieri has won the first set in 10 of 15 clay matches.
- Krumich has lost the first set in 8 of 14 clay matches.
- Pieri averages 5.33 games won in set1; Krumich averages 4.43.
- Pieri's set1 win rate is 66.7% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Pieri's second-set record is just as strong as his first-set record on clay.
- Pieri has won the second set in 10 of 15 clay matches.
- Krumich has lost the second set in 8 of 14 clay matches.
- Pieri averages 5.07 games won in set2; Krumich averages 4.43.
- Pieri's set2 win rate is 66.7% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The recent clay records show tiebreaks are uncommon for both players.
- Pieri has had one tiebreak in 15 clay matches.
- Krumich has had one tiebreak in 14 clay matches.
- Combined, 27 of 29 clay matches had no tiebreak.
- Both players' first-set and second-set tiebreak counts are very low.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Prediction history

Samuele Pieri: 2/7 recent winner projections matched

2 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Samuele Pieri matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Samuele Pieri7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Bonn - Germany

—Moritz Kudernatsch0-2#398Samuele Pieri

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

—Moritz Kudernatsch0-2#398Samuele Pieri

Samuele Pieri to win

62%probability

Samuele Pieri won

Matched

19 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#401Samuele Pieri1-2#369Petr Nesterov

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·58%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#401Samuele Pieri1-2#369Petr Nesterov

Samuele Pieri to win

58%probability

Petr Nesterov won

Missed

12 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#406Samuele Pieri0-2#732Giorgio Tabacco

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·72%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#406Samuele Pieri0-2#732Giorgio Tabacco

Samuele Pieri to win

72%probability

Giorgio Tabacco won

Missed

6 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#406Samuele Pieri1-2#484Rudolf Molleker

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·58%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#406Samuele Pieri1-2#484Rudolf Molleker

Samuele Pieri to win

58%probability

Rudolf Molleker won

Missed

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#398Samuele Pieri0-2#327Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·55%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#398Samuele Pieri0-2#327Oriol Roca Batalla

Samuele Pieri to win

55%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Missed

Previous match context available

Samuele Pieri

11W 4L

6-4 6-1#426Juan Cruz Martin Manzano 5-7 6-4 6-2#179Vitaliy Sachko 6-4 4-6 6-3#376Carlos Taberner

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#385Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#380Andrej Martin

6-4 6-2#426Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-1 6-3#220Alex Barrena

5-7 6-2 7-5#386Gabriele Piraino

4-6 6-3 6-4#690Sebastian Dominko

4-6 6-2 6-4#374Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-1#616Andrea De Marchi

6-1 7-5—Nicolo Toffanin

6-2 6-1#881Theodore Dean

2-6 6-2 6-3—Jonas Gundacker

6-1 6-0—Miha Vetrih

Martin Krumich

7W 8L

4-6 6-1 6-3#460Matthew William Donald

6-3 6-1#542Pierluigi Basile

6-1 4-2 ret.#675Imanol Lopez Morillo

7-6(5) 6-3#849Dominik Recek

6-3 6-4#162Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-2—Kacper Knitter

6-2 6-4#189Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-4 6-3#374Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-4#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 6-4#310Sandro Kopp

4-6 6-4 6-1#565Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#264Dominic Stricker

2-6 6-4 6-4#571Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-2#249Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#185Joel Schwaerzler

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SPSamuele PieriPieri

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Martin KrumichKrumichMK

Samuele Pieri carries the stronger recent form — Martin Krumich's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1560.9%+7.0pp53.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.9%+1.1pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1555.2%+3.2pp52.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.6+0.83.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.41.1 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1544.9%+4.6pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.0%+6.3pp36.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1571.0%—70.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.9%+3.3pp50.6%

Serve · 3–2

60.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp53.9%

67.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp69.0%

55.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp52.0%

2.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.83.4

1.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.1 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

44.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.6pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp36.7%

71.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—70.6%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp50.6%

Samuele Pieri

Martin Krumich

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Samuele Pieri

Samuele Pieri

Samuele Pieri

Samuele Pieri 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Samuele Pieri

Martin Krumich

Stat Battle