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Predictions graded

Samuele Pieri #401Italy1Petr Nesterov #3692

Sets 3-6 · 7-6 · 5-7Sun 19 Jul 2026, 13:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Nesterov · 32 places

Samuele Pieri

Italy

Structured data lists Pieri at No. 401 and 183 cm. Public ATP bio pages are sparse; the last surfaced archive snippet showed age 24 and an older best-ranking line already below the current ranking, so an updated official career-high date was not confirmed in the required search.

Current ranking: #401
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: 183 cm

Petr Nesterov

Structured data lists Nesterov at No. 369 and right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Public ATP bio pages are sparse; the last surfaced archive snippet showed age 23 and an older best-ranking line below the current ranking, so an updated official career-high date was not confirmed in the required search.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 06:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Samuele Pieri holds a 2-0 clay-court H2H edge over Petr Nesterov, including a straight-set win in May 2026, making him the value pick at 2.05 odds despite Nesterov's stronger recent form.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and Nesterov +3.5 games offering solid betting angles, while Pieri's tendency for three-setters adds low-confidence appeal to a 2-1 correct score.

Context

Pieri won 6-3, 6-4 in their most recent meeting on 25 May 2026.
- Pieri also won their first meeting 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 in December 2023.
- Both matches were on clay, the same surface as today's contest.
Nesterov's last-15 record is 9-6, compared to Pieri's 7-8.
- Nesterov has beaten players ranked 333, 361, and 426 in his last five wins.
- Pieri's wins in the same window came against lower-ranked opponents, with only one win over a top-200 player.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Pieri's 2-0 H2H edge on clay, including a straight-set win two months ago, gives him a structural matchup advantage despite Nesterov's slightly better recent form.
- H2H: Pieri leads 2-0, both on clay, most recent 6-3 6-4 in May 2026.
- Pieri last15: 46.7% win rate, but 2-0 vs Nesterov in that window.
- Nesterov last15: 60% win rate, but lost to Pieri in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nesterov's positive game margin in recent matches and Pieri's negative margin suggest Nesterov can keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.
- Pieri last15: avg games won margin -0.3 per match.
- Nesterov last15: avg games won margin +1.1 per match.
- H2H: Pieri won by 6 and 3 games, but Nesterov's recent form is stronger.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPetr Nesterov +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average around 22 games, and their two H2H meetings produced 19 and 21 games, supporting a competitive match that exceeds 21.5 games.
- Pieri last15: avg 22.5 total games per match.
- Nesterov last15: avg 21.5 total games per match.
- H2H matches: 19 and 21 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average around 9-10 games, and their H2H first sets were competitive, supporting over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Pieri last15: avg 9.8 games in first set.
- Nesterov last15: avg 9.1 games in first set.
- H2H: first sets had 9 and 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players have high first-set conversion rates, but Pieri's H2H pattern of taking the opener on clay tilts the edge slightly in his favor.
- Pieri first-set win conversion career: 88%.
- Nesterov first-set win conversion career: 92%.
- H2H: Pieri won first set in both meetings (6-3, 6-3).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average low double fault counts, making it likely the total stays under 3.5.
- Pieri last15: 1.5 double faults per match.
- Nesterov last15: 1.1 double faults per match.
- Combined average: 2.6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-3 6-4Samuele Pieri#401vPetr Nesterov#369May 25, 2026

W6-3 2-6 6-4Samuele Pieri#401vPetr Nesterov#369Dec 21, 2023

2 total meetings

Samuele Pieri

7W 8L

7-5 6-4#739Giorgio Tabacco

7-5 4-6 6-3#278Martin Krumich

6-1 4-6 6-3#482Rudolf Molleker

7-5 7-5—Noel Larwig

6-2 6-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 7-6(7)#779Tim Handel

6-2 3-6 6-1#409Max Hans Rehberg

3-6 6-3 6-1#615Kai Wehnelt

7-5 6-3#342Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#380Francesco Forti

1-6 7-6(7) 6-4#594Giovanni Oradini

6-2 6-3#257Diego Dedura

6-1 7-6(3)#186Jerome Kym

6-3 6-4#369Petr Nesterov

6-1 6-4—Alessandro Battiston

Petr Nesterov

9W 6L

6-1 6-1#327Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-4#497Giuseppe La Vela

6-2 3-6 6-4#291Sandro Kopp

6-3 7-6(4)#361Tommaso Compagnucci

6-3 6-3#333Matteo Martineau

6-2 6-2#426Daniel Dutra Da Silva

6-4 3-6 6-4#542Fausto Tabacco

6-4 6-4#527Federico Arnaboldi

0-6 7-5 6-4#638Federico Iannaccone

7-5 6-3#175Marco Cecchinato

6-4 3-6 6-1#456Gianmarco Ferrari

6-4 6-2—Michele Mecarelli

6-3 6-4#401Samuele Pieri

6-0 6-7(3) 6-3#893Daniel Bagnolini

6-4 6-4#255Buvaysar Gadamauri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SPSamuele PieriPieri

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Petr NesterovNesterovPN

Petr Nesterov carries the stronger recent form — Samuele Pieri's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.6%+4.6pp60.0%

1st Serve Won65.1%—65.6%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+1.9pp50.7%

Aces / Match1.7+1.43.1

Double Faults / Match1.50.4 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.8%+4.8pp41.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.9%+11.6pp50.5%

Break Pts Saved52.9%+6.1pp59.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+2.1pp50.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.6%1st Serve In+4.6pp60.0%

65.1%1st Serve Won—65.6%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp50.7%

1.7Aces / Match+1.43.1

1.5Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

36.8%Return Pts Won+4.8pp41.6%

Pressure · 0–2

38.9%Break Pts Converted+11.6pp50.5%

52.9%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp59.0%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+2.1pp50.9%