Bernard Tomic #185Australia22 – 0Timofey Skatov #210Kazakhstan0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Tomic's stronger recent hard-court win rate and better three-set record give him a slight edge.

• Tomic has won 9 of 14 hard-court matches (64%), including four of his last six.
• Skatov has won 2 of 5 hard-court matches (40%) but against higher-ranked opponents on average.
• Tomic is 5-2 in three-set matches on hard this swing, while Skatov is 0-1.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' first sets tend to be long, with averages above 10 games.

• Tomic's first sets average 10.4 total games on hard.
• Skatov's first sets average 10.6 total games on hard.
• Both players have multiple first-set tiebreaks in this sample.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tomic's second sets often go long, and if the match is competitive the second set could exceed 9.5 games.

• Tomic's second sets average 10.4 total games on hard.
• Skatov's second sets average 8.8 total games on hard.
• Tomic has three second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tomic's recent wins have generally come by more than one game, giving him a slight edge to cover this small handicap.

• Tomic's game margins in his last six hard matches were +3, +4, -4, +3, -2, +5.
• He covered -1.5 games in four of those six matches.
• Tomic's average game margin in that span is +1.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Skatov's recent form includes quick straight-set wins, and Tomic can also win in straight sets.

• Skatov's hard-court matches average 2.2 sets.
• Skatov has two 2-0 wins in his last five hard matches.
• Tomic has four 2-0 wins in 14 hard matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Tomic is notably stronger in second sets, often raising his level after a slow start.

• Tomic has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard.
• Skatov has won 2 of 5 second sets on hard.
• Tomic's second-set win rate is his strongest set split.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Slightly more than half of the relevant hard-court matches have avoided a tiebreak, making no a marginal pick.

• Skatov has had no tiebreak in three of his last five hard matches.
• Tomic has had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard matches.
• Skatov's most recent match had no tiebreak.