Timofey Skatov #149Kazakhstan22 – 0Stefanos Sakellaridis #155Greece0

Sakellaridis has played the bulk of his recent tennis on hard courts, and the serve is the shot holding up best.

In a three-set qualifying match decided largely by who holds serve more comfortably, this gap is the clearest reason he starts as favourite. Skatov's four hard-court matches give 4.8 aces a match and 66.5% of first-serve points won, so the hold patterns are not close. The caveat is sample size: nine matches and four matches are small, and Sakellaridis's most recent hard-court outing ended in a straight-sets defeat.

The wins have been ground out rather than closed in straight sets, and the middle set is where his level has dipped.

He has won six of nine on hard, but the scorelines show how rarely that has been comfortable, which is why the match is expected to run long rather than finish quickly. His hard-court matches average 24 games, and four of the nine needed a decider. The other side of that coin is a second-set record of 3-6, so a tight match is not the same as a controlled one.

That result is the freshest hard-court evidence on the favourite's side of the draw.

It is one match rather than a trend, but it came against a player ranked far below both men, which is the risk attached to his 6-3 surface record. Skatov also lost his most recent hard match in straight sets, so the warning is not one-sided. Even so, this is the single result most likely to sit awkwardly with any short price on Sakellaridis.

Skatov has won only one of those four matches, but the opening sets have rarely been lopsided.

That makes a fast, one-sided start against him unlikely even though the overall hard-court record favours his opponent. He split those four first sets 2-2, with the games piling up before the picture shifted. The sample is four matches, so it is a hint about how his matches begin rather than a reliable pattern.