Jiri Lehecka #12Czechia22 – 0Valentin Vacherot #180

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka owns the better hard-court serve and return figures, arrives fresher after a short quarterfinal and has been starting matches strongly.

• Hard-court window: 10-4 record, 55.1% of games and 65.8% of sets won
• Hard-court total points won 51.8% vs Vacherot's 50.3%; second-serve points won 52.8% vs 48.0%
• Tokyo wins over Bergs, Humbert and Vallejo, finishing with a 6-1 6-1 quarterfinal
• 7.3 aces and 2.7 double faults per hard-court match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's opening sets tend to stretch past nine games while Lehecka's mostly stay near the line.

• Lehecka's first sets average 9.0 games on hard courts
• Vacherot's first sets average 10.4 games with two tiebreaks in eight matches
• Two of Vacherot's three Tokyo first sets reached at least 11 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Lehecka has the stronger opening-set record on this surface and has begun his Tokyo matches quickly.

• Set 1 record 8-3 across 11 hard-court best-of-three matches
• First-serve points won 77.8% on hard courts
• Opened with 6-1 against Vallejo and 6-3 against Bergs in Tokyo

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka's second-set record is clearly better than Vacherot's, and set two has been the weaker half of Vacherot's recent matches.

• Set 2 record 7-4 in hard-court best-of-three matches
• Vacherot's set 2 record is 3-5
• Second sets in these matches average 10.4 to 11.3 games, so they often run deep

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The two players' combined ace rate is slightly below the line, and a short match would pull it lower.

• Combined hard-court average of 18.0 aces per match between the two
• Lehecka averages 7.3 aces per hard-court match
• Lehecka's Tokyo quarterfinal produced few service games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Breaks have been common enough in both players' matches that a tiebreak-free match is slightly more likely.

• Three of Lehecka's 11 hard-court best-of-three matches had a tiebreak
• Eight of 19 combined hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
• Lehecka's Tokyo quarterfinal contained no tiebreak

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Lehecka's clean serving record keeps the combined rate from clearing the line.

• Combined hard-court average is 7.5 double faults per match
• Lehecka averages 2.7 double faults per hard-court match
• Vacherot's 4.8 average comes with 10.7 aces per match