Rinky Hijikata #104Australia22 – 1Jiri Lehecka #12Czechia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Both players' recent grass matches have been competitive with high game counts, and their tiebreak tendencies increase the likelihood of a longer match.

• Hijikata's last three matches have averaged 23.3 games, with two going to three sets.
• Lehecka's recent grass matches have been tight: 25 games vs Shelton, 23 vs Tiafoe, 25 vs Majchrzak.
• Both players have tiebreak experience: Hijikata 60% career TB win rate, Lehecka 53%, and both have played multiple TBs in recent grass matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Hijikata's competitiveness on grass and Lehecka's tendency for close wins make Hijikata +3.5 games a plausible cover.

• Hijikata's recent losses have been close: 6-4 6-4 vs Tiafoe, 7-5 6-2 vs Altmaier, all within 3.5 games.
• Lehecka's wins have often been tight: 7-5 7-6 vs Majchrzak, 6-4 7-6 vs Tiafoe, suggesting he doesn't blow out opponents.
• Hijikata's grass form (6-2 in 2026) indicates he can keep matches competitive against higher-ranked players.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Lehecka's strong serving and Hijikata's tendency to start slowly suggest Lehecka will take the opening set.

• Lehecka's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, vs Hijikata's 84%, but Lehecka's recent first sets include wins over Tiafoe and Duckworth.
• Lehecka's serve dominance (71.6% first-serve points won) should pressure Hijikata's weaker return game (39% return points won).
• Hijikata has dropped the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents like Prizmic and Giron.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have above-average ace rates, and grass conditions should push the total aces over 12.5.

• Lehecka averages 7.5 aces per match (career ace rate), and on grass his ace rate likely increases.
• Hijikata averages 5.3 aces per match, and his recent grass matches have seen him serve effectively.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest around 13 aces in a typical match, and grass courts amplify serving.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches, especially on grass, makes a tiebreak in this match very likely.

• Lehecka has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches, including two in his last grass match.
• Hijikata has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches, showing he can push sets deep.
• Both players have career tiebreak win rates above 50%, and grass often leads to tight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have solid second serves and low double fault rates, making under 6.5 a reasonable expectation.

• Lehecka's double fault rate is 3.1%, and Hijikata's is 3.7%, both relatively low.
• In their recent grass matches, neither player has had high double fault counts (Lehecka 1-2 per match, Hijikata 2-3).
• Combined, they average around 5-6 double faults per match, and grass doesn't significantly increase double faults.