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Predictions graded

Matthew William Donald #461Czechia2Martin Krumich #255Czechia1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-3Fri 2 Oct 2026, 14:43 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Krumich · 206 places

Matthew William Donald

Czechia

ITF lists Donald as a right-handed player whose preferred surface is grass. Public ranking records show a career-best No. 455 in July 2026; no current injury or decline narrative was identified.

Current ranking: #461
Peak ranking: #455 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Krumich is a 23-year-old Czech right-hander. ITF records list clay as his preferred surface and No. 268 as his career-high ATP singles ranking, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #268 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Krumich is 206 places higher and won their only clay meeting, making him the pick for a place in the semi-final, but he is 7-7 on clay across his last 14 completed matches and has taken just 5 of 14 opening sets.

Donald has won 9 of 14 first sets. Krumich's 1.45 match price and 1.50 first-set price ask for more than that record supports, while Donald at 2.4 in the first set and 2.75 for the match are the two prices offering value.

Context

Donald has spent roughly nine sets and several hours on court since 27 September and returns a day after that three-setter, while Krumich has played about four sets, one of them cut short after ten games. The gap is real but it cuts both ways: Krumich arrives fresher yet with very little competitive rhythm on these courts, having been tested in only one completed match here. Donald's extra load is also softened by the way his last match ended, since he did not have to close out a deciding set himself.
- Donald won four matches at Bari between 27 September and, the last after Lorenzo Giustino retired at 3-1 in the third set.
- Krumich's opening match at Bari ended after ten games when Imanol Lopez Morillo retired at 6-1 4-2.
- Krumich then beat Pierluigi Basile 6-3 6-1 to reach the quarter-finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Donald's clearest foothold in this quarter-final is how he begins it.
Across 14 completed clay matches from 14 August to 29 September 2026, Donald won 9 first sets, giving him his clearest foothold in this quarter-final. Only one of those 14 opening sets reached a tiebreak, so his fast starts have tended to be settled in normal games. One retirement was excluded from the sample, and 14 matches is a small base, so this is a lean rather than a firm read.
- Donald won 9 of 14 first sets across 14 completed clay matches between 14 August and 29 September 2026.
- He averaged 5.5 games won and 4.1 games lost in opening sets in that sample.
- Only one of the 14 opening sets went to a tiebreak.
- One retirement was excluded from the 14-match sample.
Krumich's clay matches have rarely gone the distance in either direction.
Straight-set finishes dominate: 10 of Krumich's 14 completed clay matches ended 2-0 or 0-2, and his matches have averaged 2.29 sets. Six of those straight-set results went against him, so the pattern cuts both ways rather than pointing to control. One retirement was excluded from the 14-match sample, and the base is small.
- Krumich's 14 completed clay matches from 28 July to 1 October 2026 produced a 7-7 record and an average of 2.29 sets per match.
- Four matches finished as 2-0 wins and six as 0-2 defeats, so 10 of 14 ended in straight sets.
- One retirement was excluded from the sample.
Krumich's ranking edge over Donald has not been matched by steady clay results.
Krumich is 206 places above Donald, yet this window includes a straight-sets defeat to a player ranked nearly 600 places below him. One result does not erase the ranking gap, but it shows his clay results have not been steady. This quarter-final is not a case of a higher-ranked player who has simply outplayed this level of opposition.
- On 23 September 2026 Krumich lost 6-7 3-6 to Dominik Recek, ranked No. 849, in a completed clay match.
- Krumich won nine games and lost 13 across the two sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The higher-ranked player owns the only head-to-head win on this surface, although the two clay records are level.
- Krumich is ranked No. 254, Donald No. 460
- Krumich won their only recorded meeting 7-5 7-5 on clay at Pardubice in 2025
- Clay record over the last 14 completed matches: Krumich 7-7, Donald 8-6
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMartin KrumichEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening-set game averages sit just below the line and tiebreaks are rare in that set.
- Donald's opening sets average 9.6 games; Krumich's average 8.9
- Only 1 tiebreak in 14 opening sets for each player
- Krumich has won only five opening sets, many finishing quickly
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donald's matches tend to run long and the only head-to-head needed 24 games to settle.
- Donald's clay matches average 23.4 games; Krumich's average 20.6
- Donald's last six completed matches totalled 21, 25, 14, 16, 31 and 33 games
- Their 2025 clay meeting lasted 24 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set game averages sit marginally under the line with very few tiebreaks.
- Krumich's second sets average 9.3 games
- Donald's second sets average 9.5 games
- Only 1 second-set tiebreak combined in 28 tracked matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' completed clay records.
- Krumich's clay matches average 2.29 sets, Donald's 2.43
- Krumich has won or lost 10 of 14 tracked clay matches in straight sets
- Donald has won three Bari matches without dropping a set
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Donald has started sets notably better than Krumich across the same clay window.
- Donald has won 9 of 14 opening sets on clay
- Krumich has won only 5 of 14 opening sets on clay
- Donald's opening sets average 9.6 games, Krumich's 8.9
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatthew William DonaldEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets are even in the records, with Krumich getting a slim nod from ranking and the head-to-head.
- Krumich has won 7 of 14 second sets on clay, Donald 7 of 14
- Krumich won both sets 7-5 in their only head-to-head
- Krumich's second sets average 9.3 games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMartin KrumichEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare for both players on clay in the tracked window.
- Donald had a tiebreak in 2 of 14 tracked clay matches
- Krumich had a tiebreak in 1 of 14 tracked clay matches
- Combined, only 3 of 28 tracked clay matches contained a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Matthew William Donald

9W 6L

6-7(1) 6-3 3-1 ret.#210Lorenzo Giustino 6-3 7-5#415Olle Wallin 7-5 7-6(6)#557Dimitris Sakellaridis 6-1 6-1#786Carles Cordoba 6-3 6-1#318Dali Blanch 6-3 4-6 7-5#222Gianluca Cadenasso

6-7(7) 7-5 6-2#668Giovanni Oradini

7-5 6-4#256Mika Brunold

6-2 6-2#573Jelle Sels

6-4 6-2#491Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-1 7-5#696Giorgio Tabacco

7-5 4-6 6-3#445Nerman Fatic

6-0 4-6 6-3#789Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

2-6 6-3 6-4#430Louis Wessels

6-3 6-4#557Dimitris Sakellaridis

Martin Krumich

8W 7L

6-3 6-1#542Pierluigi Basile 6-1 4-2 ret.#675Imanol Lopez Morillo

7-6(5) 6-3#849Dominik Recek

6-3 6-4#162Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-2—Kacper Knitter

6-2 6-4#189Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-4 6-3#374Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-4#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 6-4#310Sandro Kopp

4-6 6-4 6-1#565Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#264Dominic Stricker

2-6 6-4 6-4#571Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-2#249Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#185Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-4 6-2#266Philip Henning

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatthew William DonaldDonald

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Martin KrumichKrumichMK

Martin Krumich carries the stronger recent form — Matthew William Donald's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.2%+11.1pp54.1%

1st Serve Won66.2%+5.3pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+3.2pp50.3%

Aces / Match0.9+3.24.1

Double Faults / Match5.93.2 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.2%+1.5pp40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.6%+13.5pp34.1%

Break Pts Saved55.1%+16.9pp72.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.6%—51.0%

Serve · 1–4

65.2%1st Serve In+11.1pp54.1%

66.2%1st Serve Won+5.3pp71.5%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp50.3%

0.9Aces / Match+3.24.1

5.9Double Faults / Match3.2 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won+1.5pp40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

47.6%Break Pts Converted+13.5pp34.1%

55.1%Break Pts Saved+16.9pp72.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won—51.0%