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Predictions graded

Imanol Lopez Morillo #590Spain0Martin Krumich #255Czechia2

Sets 1-6 · 2-4Tue 29 Sept 2026, 11:52 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Krumich · 335 places

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Spain

Reached a singles career-high ranking of No. 470 in February 2024. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #590
Peak ranking: #470 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Krumich is a 23-year-old Czech right-hander. ITF records list clay as his preferred surface and No. 268 as his career-high ATP singles ranking, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #268 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 20:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Krumich is the eighth seed and higher-ranked, but he is 6-9 on clay and lost his latest match to world No. 849, while Lopez Morillo arrives from qualifying with steadier serving and returning.

Krumich remains the likelier winner; the 1.38 on him asks far more than that, and the 1.44 on him in the second set is also short. Two reviewed prices are potential value: Lopez Morillo at 3.00 to win, and 2.60 for him to take the second set.

Context

Lopez Morillo is in the main draw the hard way, having played two qualifying matches on 27 and, including a three-set win over Duje Ajdukovic. That gives him three competitive matches in three days going into the first round, against an opponent who arrives without qualifying duty. The upside is clay rhythm and a win over a player ranked near the top 350; the cost is accumulated fatigue and no rest day before facing the eighth seed.
- Qualifying win over Duje Ajdukovic 6-3 4-6 6-4
- Qualifying win over Adrian Oetzbach 6-4 6-3
- Entered the 2026 Levante Open singles main draw from the qualifying draw
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 20:02 · Europe/BucharestWikipedia - 2026 Levante Openen.wikipedia.org · 28 Sep 2026
Krumich carries the higher ranking into Bari but arrives off a loss to a player more than 500 places below him.
It is the freshest data point in a 15-match clay window that runs from 14 July to 23 September 2026, and it came in straight sets against a player well outside the top 500. One result does not overturn a ranking gap, but it sits alongside a 6-9 clay record in that same window, which is why the seed's edge rests more on his serve numbers than on recent results.
- Krumich lost 6-7 3-6 to Dominik Recek (ATP No. 849) on clay on 23 September 2026
- It is the most recent entry in his 15-match clay window running from 14 July to 23 September 2026
Krumich's first sets have been the weakest part of a clay window in which he still won six of 15 matches.
A 4-11 first-set record means Krumich has usually handed over the opening set, averaging 3.93 games won to 5.00 lost in that sample of 15 best-of-three clay matches, with one tiebreak. Lopez Morillo's clay first-set record is 7-8 over his own 15 matches, so the opening set is not a clear strength for either player.
- Krumich's clay first sets: 4 wins and 11 losses across 15 completed best-of-three matches from 14 July to 23 September 2026
- He averaged 3.93 games won and 5.00 games lost in first sets, with one tiebreak in the sample
Krumich's serve has held up better than his return games in this clay window.
Krumich saved 73 of 117 break points faced (62.4%) but converted only 39 of 113 (34.5%), a wide gap in the same 15-match sample. Lopez Morillo converted 52 of 104 break points (50%) in his own clay window, a clear contrast on the return side and one reason the qualifier's chances rest on creating and taking chances rather than on holding serve alone.
- Krumich converted 39 of 113 break points (34.5%) on clay in a 15-match window ending 23 September 2026
- He saved 73 of 117 break points faced (62.4%) in the same 15-match sample

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The ranking gap and Krumich's stronger serve numbers against better-ranked clay opposition give him the clearer route.
- Krumich is ATP No. 254 and the eighth seed here, against No. 675 Lopez Morillo.
- On clay Krumich has taken 70.3% of first-serve points and saved 62.4% of break points faced.
- His recent clay opponents include No. 136 Seyboth Wild, No. 162 Gentzsch and No. 189 Kolar, higher-ranked than Lopez Morillo's.
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableMartin KrumichEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's short straight-set defeats pull the combined expectation just below the mark.
- Krumich's clay matches averaged 21.3 games against Lopez Morillo's 23.3.
- Krumich has lost 0-2 in 7 of his 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average sits just below 9.5 games.
- Lopez Morillo's second sets average 9.33 games; Krumich's 9.6.
- Krumich has lost 8 of his 15 clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results have been the more common outcome for both players on clay.
- Lopez Morillo went to three sets in 6 of 15 clay matches; Krumich in 5 of 15.
- Krumich's 15 clay matches include seven 0-2 defeats.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich has been the stronger second-set player of the two on clay in this window.
- Krumich is 7-8 in clay second sets; Lopez Morillo is 5-10.
- Krumich wins 4.67 games per clay second set, Lopez Morillo 4.4.
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableMartin KrumichEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's overall quality offsets a poor first-set record, leaving the opening set close to even.
- Krumich's clay first-set record is 4-11; Lopez Morillo's is 7-8.
- Krumich has taken 70.3% of first-serve points on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartin KrumichEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have shown up in fewer than a quarter of both players' recent clay matches.
- Only 7 of the two players' 30 combined clay matches featured a tiebreak.
- Krumich's average clay match lasts 106.7 minutes.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace average falls just short of the 6.5 mark.
- Krumich averages 4.1 aces per clay match, Lopez Morillo 1.9, for a combined 6.0.
- Lopez Morillo has struck 26 aces in 14 measured clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average sits below 4.5 across both players' clay matches.
- Krumich averages 2.5 double faults per clay match, Lopez Morillo 1.6, for a combined 4.1.
- Krumich has hit 38 double faults in 15 clay matches, Lopez Morillo 23 in 14.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Imanol Lopez Morillo

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#551Adrian Oetzbach

6-3 4-6 6-4#348Duje Ajdukovic

7-5 6-1#468Filip Misolic

4-6 6-3 7-6(4)#339Tiago Pereira

6-3 7-5#533Pedro Vives Marcos

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#709Tristan Mccormick

7-6(3) 6-3#328Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-4 3-6 6-1#784Carles Hernandez

6-3 6-3—Nathan Walters

7-5 6-3—Oliver Majdandzic

7-6(5) 3-6 6-2#452Oleg Prihodko

6-2 2-6 7-5#854Pawel Juszczak

6-1 6-1—Jakub Januchowski

6-1 7-6(5)#223Max Houkes

3-6 6-1 6-3#684Tim Handel

Martin Krumich

6W 9L

7-6(5) 6-3#849Dominik Recek

6-3 6-4#162Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-2—Kacper Knitter

6-2 6-4#189Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-4 6-3#374Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-4#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 6-4#310Sandro Kopp

4-6 6-4 6-1#565Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#264Dominic Stricker

2-6 6-4 6-4#571Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-2#249Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#185Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-4 6-2#266Philip Henning

6-3 6-7(7) 6-2#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#170Stefano Travaglia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IMImanol Lopez MorilloMorillo

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Martin KrumichKrumichMK

Imanol Lopez Morillo carries the stronger recent form — Martin Krumich's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1564.9%+10.4pp54.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1563.3%+7.0pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1551.8%+4.8pp47.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.9+2.24.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.60.9 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.7%+2.3pp39.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1550.0%+15.5pp34.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1553.6%+8.8pp62.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.3%+1.0pp49.3%

Serve · 3–2

64.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+10.4pp54.5%

63.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp70.3%

51.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.8pp47.0%

1.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.24.1

1.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.9 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp39.4%

Pressure · 1–1

50.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+15.5pp34.5%

53.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+8.8pp62.4%

Points · 1–0

50.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.0pp49.3%