PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Jerome Kym #205Switzerland2Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania1

Sets 6-7 · 6-3 · 7-6Fri 2 Oct 2026, 14:38 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–633%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJerome Kym · 63 places

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander who reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 123 in May 2025. His official 2026 record shows most of his matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #205
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 03:16 · Europe/Bucharest

A Porto Challenger quarter-final where Butvilas, No. 203, has won nine of 14 hard-court matches since 8 August — six in straight sets — while Kym, No. 286, has been taken to a third set in four of his five since 25 August.

Butvilas is the more likely winner, but every forecast here is low confidence and none came with a quoted price, so there is no price worth taking.

Context

Kym, the world No. 286, removed the tournament's fourth seed, closing the match 6-2 in the third set after losing the second. A top-100 scalp on the same hard courts where this quarter-final is played is the strongest form marker on either player's route through Porto. It was still a three-set match and a single Challenger result rather than a run of wins at this level, so it establishes the level of the win without establishing how repeatable it is.
- Kym, ranked No. 286, beat fourth seed Toby Samuel, ranked No. 98, 6-2 4-6 6-2 in the Porto second round.
- The win put Kym into the Porto quarter-final against Edas Butvilas.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Butvilas beat the sixth seed Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 in the Saint-Tropez first round, the most notable result of his hard-court swing before Porto. It is the clearest evidence that the higher-ranked player in this quarter-final can beat opposition well above his own ranking on this surface, including in a first-set tiebreak. He then lost 6-4 6-3 to Harold Mayot in the following round, so the win marked a peak rather than the start of a sustained run.
- Butvilas beat sixth seed Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 to move into the second round at Saint-Tropez.
- Butvilas was ranked No. 198 and Dimitrov No. 127 at the time of the match.
- Butvilas lost his next match at the event 6-4 6-3 to Harold Mayot.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Butvilas, ranked No. 203, arrives as the higher-ranked player in this quarter-final.
The first set is the phase where Butvilas has been clearly the stronger player in this sample, which is why the opening set is the likelier part of the match for him to control. His even second-set record says that advantage has not carried through, so a one-set lead would not settle the match. At 14 matches these are indicative patterns rather than fixed rates.
- Edas Butvilas's 14 tracked hard-court matches from 8 August to 1 October 2026 produced a 10-4 first-set record and a 7-7 second-set record.
- Seven of those 14 matches featured at least one tiebreak, including three first-set tiebreaks.
- One retirement was excluded from the sample.
Kym's opening match in Porto went the distance only after he recovered from 3-5 in the second set and saved two match points against Tiago Torres. It shows how narrow his margin was against a lower-ranked opponent on the same courts, and it is part of a route that has already cost him five sets across two matches. Torres was ranked outside the top 350, so the escape speaks to Kym's record in tight sets more than to his level against a top-200 opponent such as Butvilas.
- Kym came from 3-5 down in the second set and saved two match points to beat Tiago Torres 3-6 7-5 6-1.
- Torres, a Portuguese player, was ranked No. 359 when the match was played.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas has the better ranking and a stronger first-set record, and he has won more hard-court matches in the sample.
- Butvilas has 9 wins in 14 hard-court matches in the current sample, with a 10-4 record in first sets.
- His scorelines include six 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses, showing a tendency toward straight-set results.
- Kym's hard sample is 3-2 over five matches, with an average of 2.8 sets per match.
- Butvilas beat No. 126 Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets at Saint-Tropez.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The straight-set tendency in Butvilas's recent hard matches keeps the total below the line.
- Butvilas's hard-court sample averages 24.0 total games, and nine of his 14 matches ended in straight sets.
- Kym's five hard matches average 26.4 total games, but one was a 6-0 6-3 win.
- Combined sample-weighted average is about 24.6 total games.
- Butvilas's last six hard matches produced only one total over 25.5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 25.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's first sets often go beyond nine games, pushing the combined average over the line.
- Combined set-one average is about 9.9 total games.
- Butvilas's first sets average 10.2 games with three tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Kym's first sets average 9.2 games with one tiebreak in five matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average close to ten games in the second set, so over is slightly more likely.
- Combined set-two average is about 9.8 total games.
- Butvilas's second sets average 9.9 games.
- Kym's second sets average 9.6 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's larger hard-court sample and stronger first-set record make him the more likely opening-set winner.
- Butvilas has won 10 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Kym has won 3 of 5 first sets on hard.
- Butvilas's first-set games average is 10.2 total games with three tiebreaks.
- Kym's first-set games average is 9.2 total games with one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's recent hard-court matches more often finish in two sets, making under 2.5 the slightly stronger side.
- Butvilas has six 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses in his 14 hard-court matches.
- Kym has one 2-0 win and four three-set matches in his five hard-court matches.
- The combined set average is 2.48.
- Butvilas's recent six hard matches include four straight-set results.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kym's second-set record and game share are slightly better than Butvilas's even record, so Kym gets a narrow edge.
- Kym has a 3-2 second-set record in his five hard-court matches.
- Butvilas has a 7-7 second-set record in 14 hard-court matches.
- Kym's second-set games average is 9.6; Butvilas's is 9.9.
- Kym's overall hard games won is 56.8%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJerome KymEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's matches are less likely to feature a tiebreak, and Butvilas's straight-set wins can avoid one.
- Kym has played two tiebreaks in five hard-court matches.
- Butvilas has played seven tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Combined, 10 of 19 matches had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Jerome Kym

9W 6L

6-2 4-6 6-2#98Toby Samuel 3-6 7-5 6-1#359Tiago Torres

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#226Remy Bertola

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#211Colton Smith

6-0 6-3#384Dan Added

6-4 7-6(4)#162Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(4)#175Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#210Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 7-6(4)#223Max Houkes

6-3 6-3#492Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-0#266Philip Henning

1-6 6-4 6-4#236Jay Clarke

6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(5)#363Dylan Dietrich

7-6(5) 6-3#113Zsombor Piros

Edas Butvilas

10W 5L

6-1 7-5#371Moez Echargui 6-4 6-1#344Michael Geerts 6-4 6-3#191Harold Mayot 7-6(3) 6-3#126Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#244Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#499Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#563Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#536Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#226Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#117Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#316Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#149Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#195Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#146Dusan Lajovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJerome KymKym

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Jerome Kym's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.8%+3.5pp63.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1577.1%+4.0pp73.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.2%+3.4pp52.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/158.7+3.35.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.71.8 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.6%+4.5pp41.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.4%+7.6pp46.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.9%+0.8pp59.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.3%+2.1pp53.4%

Serve · 2–3

59.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp63.3%

77.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp73.1%

49.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.4pp52.6%

8.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.35.4

3.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.8 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

36.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp41.1%

Pressure · 0–2

38.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.6pp46.0%

58.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp59.7%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp53.4%