PortugalPorto - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Settling…

Toby Samuel #98United Kingdom1Jerome Kym #286Switzerland2

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 2-6Thu 1 Oct 2026, 10:10 Settling…Second RoundHard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageToby Samuel · 188 places

Toby Samuel

United Kingdom

British right-hander whose LTA profile lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high ATP ranking of No. 109 on 3 August 2026.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #109 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander who reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 123 in May 2025. His official 2026 record shows most of his matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #286
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 19:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Toby Samuel, ranked 98, faces No.

286 Jerome Kym in the Porto second round, where Kym's serve and Samuel's looser opening sets are the live questions. Samuel is the likely winner, probably in straight sets. Of the quoted prices, Samuel to win the match at 1.50, Samuel to win 2-0 at 2.20 and Samuel to win the second set at 1.55 all offer something; the 1.55 on the first set does not.

Context

The ranking and hard-court records point one way, with Kym's serve and a four-match run of long sets as the main pushback. The consecutive first-round days and the clay-to-hard switch are background rather than decisive, and no injury or availability note appears for either player.

The two first rounds fell on consecutive days, so only Kym has a full day between matches going into this second round. Rain delayed and interrupted part of the day Samuel played on, compressing the order of play he was in. The scorelines push the other way, with Samuel's win costing him two sets while Kym's went to three and included two saved match points. The net effect is freshness on one side against a shorter match on the other, which is a modest difference rather than a decisive one.
- Kym's first-round win over Tiago Torres was completed .
- Samuel's first-round win over Mackenzie McDonald was completed .
- Several Porto first-round matches were delayed or interrupted by rain, including the Echargui-Dzumhur and Butvilas-Geerts fixtures.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:44 · Europe/BucharestChallenger Porto live scoreslivescore.tennis365.com · 29 Sep 2026
Samuel's hard-court edge shows up more in the middle of matches than at the start of them.
If this second round reaches a second set, Samuel's record says he is far likelier to take it than the opener, which is where Kym's best chance of an early lead sits. Kym has won three of four second sets on hard courts himself, so the pattern is a lean rather than a guarantee.
- Samuel has won 10 of 11 second sets in hard-court best-of-three matches tracked between 21 July and 29 September 2026.
- He has won 7 of 11 first sets over the same 11-match sample.
- His second sets in that sample average 6 games won to 2.55 lost, and the 11 matches average 21 total games.
The serve is the strongest part of Kym's profile and the reason a No. 286 player can stay with a top-100 opponent.
The first-serve percentage and the free points from 8.5 aces a match give Kym a way to hold without long rallies, so Samuel's return games matter as much as his own serve. The 3.7 double faults a match and a 50.2% rate of second-serve points won are where pressure can be applied.
- Kym's last 15 tracked matches include 1,200 first serves, landing 59.5% and winning 77.2% of the points behind them.
- He has averaged 8.5 aces and 3.7 double faults per match across those 15 matches.
- He has won 51.5% of total points and converted 38.5% of break points in the same 15-match sample.
Kym, 23 and ranked 286, was two points from going out at 3-5 down in the second set before winning it 7-5 and then taking the third 6-1. The comeback is the substance of the story rather than the scoreline, because it shows he held a match that had turned against him on a hard court at the end of a season weighted towards clay. The counterpoint is the opponent's ranking, with Torres at 359, so the win is evidence of durability in a losing position rather than proof of a higher baseline level against a top-100 player.
- Kym beat Tiago Torres 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the Porto Challenger first round .
- He trailed 3-5 in the second set and saved two match points before taking that set 7-5 and the third 6-1.
- Torres is ranked 359 and Kym 286.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:44 · Europe/BucharestChallenger Porto live scoreslivescore.tennis365.com · 28 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Samuel has clearly stronger ranking and hard-court results, including a straight-sets win over Mackenzie McDonald in the first round.
- Samuel is ranked No. 98 to Kym's No. 286.
- Samuel is 11-2 in his last 13 hard-court matches.
- Kym is 2-2 on hard in this sample, with losses to players ranked No. 211 and No. 226.
BetBugs · Match WinnerToby SamuelMarket price1.50Estimated chance78%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages sit near or above 9.5 games, so a longer opening set is more likely than not.
- Samuel's first sets average 10.27 total games on hard courts.
- Kym's first sets average 9.5 total games on hard courts.
- Samuel has had two first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's strong second-set record suggests he can close the set with a comfortable margin.
- Samuel's second sets average 8.55 total games.
- Kym's second sets average 9.5 total games.
- Samuel won his first-round second set 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's stronger overall level and ability to win sets comfortably make a shorter match slightly more likely.
- Samuel's hard-court best-of-three matches average 21 total games.
- Samuel won his first-round match 7-5, 6-1 for 19 total games.
- Kym had one hard-court match finish 6-0, 6-3 for 15 total games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Samuel's second-set record on hard courts is outstanding, with only one loss in this sample.
- Samuel has won the second set in 10 of 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Samuel's second-set game average is 6-2.55 in those matches.
- Kym has won the second set in 3 of 4 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerToby SamuelMarket price1.55Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Samuel's better ranking and first-set record make him the more likely early leader.
- Samuel has won the first set in 7 of 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Kym has won the first set in 2 of 4 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Samuel opened his first-round win with a 7-5 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerToby SamuelMarket price1.55Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's ranking advantage and strong second-set record point to a straight-sets win being more likely than a decider.
- Samuel has seven 2-0 wins in 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Kym has one 2-0 win and one 2-1 win on hard courts this sample.
- Samuel's straight-sets first-round win took 19 games.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Samuel has often won in straight sets on hard courts and is the stronger player in this match.
- Samuel has seven 2-0 wins in 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Samuel beat Mackenzie McDonald 7-5, 6-1 in the first round.
- Kym has lost two of four recent hard-court matches in three sets.
BetBugs · Set BettingToby Samuel 2-0Market price2.20Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel has avoided tiebreaks in most of his hard-court matches, and Kym's double faults can lead to breaks.
- Samuel has had no tiebreak in 8 of 11 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Kym has had no tiebreak in 2 of 4 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Kym's double-fault rate is 5.8 per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Toby Samuel: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Toby Samuel matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Toby Samuel7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#171Jack Pinnington-Jones0-2#127Toby Samuel

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·72%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#171Jack Pinnington-Jones0-2#127Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel to win

72%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

12 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#150Toby Samuel2-0#148August Holmgren

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·58%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#150Toby Samuel2-0#148August Holmgren

Toby Samuel to win

58%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

8 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#147Kyrian Jacquet1-2#159Toby Samuel

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#147Kyrian Jacquet1-2#159Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel to win

62%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

21 May·ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#185Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·62%

Matched

21 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#185Gonzalo Bueno

Toby Samuel to win

62%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

20 May·ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#247David Goffin

BetBugsToby Samuel to win·60%

Matched

20 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#159Toby Samuel2-1#247David Goffin

Toby Samuel to win

60%probability

Toby Samuel won

Matched

Previous match context available

Toby Samuel

12W 3L

7-5 6-1#167Mackenzie Mcdonald

4-6 6-4 6-1#206Andres Andrade

6-4 6-2 6-4#23Jiri Lehecka

6-2 6-3 6-2#75Tomas Machac

4-6 6-4 5-0 ret.#131Cristian Garin

4-6 6-1 6-4#237Billy Harris

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#168Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 7-5#255Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-5 6-1#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-2#215Liam Draxl

7-6(4) 6-2#261Charles Broom

6-3 7-6(5)#295Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-0 6-1#402Yosuke Watanuki

6-2 6-0—Mikael Arseneault

5-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#14Jakub Mensik

Jerome Kym

9W 6L

3-6 7-5 6-1#359Tiago Torres

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#226Remy Bertola

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#211Colton Smith

6-0 6-3#384Dan Added

6-4 7-6(4)#162Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(4)#175Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#210Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 7-6(4)#223Max Houkes

6-3 6-3#492Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-0#266Philip Henning

1-6 6-4 6-4#236Jay Clarke

6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(5)#363Dylan Dietrich

7-6(5) 6-3#113Zsombor Piros

4-6 6-0 6-3#234Maks Kasnikowski

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TSToby SamuelSamuel

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Jerome KymKymJK

Toby Samuel carries the stronger recent form — Jerome Kym's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1561.1%+1.6pp59.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.6%+3.6pp77.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1553.9%+3.7pp50.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.0+3.58.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.5—3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.8%+7.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1552.3%+13.8pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1565.1%+6.5pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1554.8%+3.3pp51.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp59.5%

73.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp77.2%

53.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp50.2%

5.0Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.58.5

3.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—3.7

Return · 1–0

43.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

52.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+13.8pp38.5%

65.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.5pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp51.5%

Toby Samuel

Jerome Kym

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel 2-0

Toby Samuel

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Toby Samuel

Jerome Kym

Stat Battle