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Predictions graded

Grigor Dimitrov #1270Edas Butvilas #198Lithuania2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Tue 22 Sept 2026, 16:38 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGrigor Dimitrov · 71 places

Grigor Dimitrov

Career-high No. 3, reached in 2017, with hard and grass listed as preferred surfaces. The structured data has him at No. 127 and working with coach Jamie Delgado.

Current ranking: #127
Peak ranking: #3 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Hard, Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #198
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Dimitrov is the higher-ranked player, but his hard-court season is level at 3-3 while Butvilas has taken 11 of 14 opening sets.

Dimitrov is the likelier winner, probably not in straight sets. Two prices offer something: Butvilas to win 2-1 at 5.5 and Butvilas to take the first set at 2.5. Dimitrov's 1.4 match price asks more than his form justifies.

Context

Butvilas has started quickly against better-ranked players, most recently taking a set 6-1 off Miomir Kecmanovic, ranked 60.
That split matters here: Butvilas is a live threat to steal the opening set against a higher-ranked opponent, but the longer the match runs the less his second-set record supports him. A Dimitrov win in three sets, or a Butvilas first set followed by a Dimitrov recovery, both fit the pattern.
- Butvilas's first sets: 11 wins, 3 losses with three first-set tiebreaks over 14 hard-court best-of-three matches (25 July–19 September).
- Butvilas's second sets: 5 wins, 9 losses with two second-set tiebreaks in the same sample.
- Eight of the 14 matches went to a deciding set (five 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses).
- The set sample excludes one retirement.
Dimitrov's recent hard-court matches have leaned toward tighter, longer affairs — his first sets average 9.6 games with two tiebreaks in five — which is the main argument against a quick, straight-sets night. It also means a three-set result is a normal outcome here rather than a surprise.
- Dimitrov's five hard-court best-of-three matches (14 August–19 September) averaged 25.4 total games and 2.6 sets.
- Three of the five went three sets (two 1-2 losses, one 2-1 win); two finished 2-0.
- Three of the five included a tiebreak, with first sets averaging 9.6 games.
- His latest, on 19 September indoors, was a 6-3 3-6 6-7 loss to Holger Rune.
It ended in defeat, but the scoreline shows Butvilas can stay with a top-60 player and can take a set emphatically once he finds his range. Against Dimitrov, ranked 127, that is the level of set-winning that keeps a three-set outcome in play.
- 19 September 2026: Butvilas lost 5-7 6-1 5-7 to Miomir Kecmanovic (ranked 60) on indoor hard courts.
- Butvilas won the second set 6-1 and took 16 games to Kecmanovic's 15.
- It is a single completed match, not a trend, and it ended in a loss.
The serve is why Dimitrov is favoured — 76% of first-serve points won in the same window — but his break-point numbers sit mid-range, which gives Butvilas something to attack on return and supports the case for a closer match than the ranking gap suggests.
- Dimitrov saved 40 of 76 break points (52.6%) across 13 tracked matches within his last 15.
- He converted 41 of 102 break points (40.2%) in the same 13 matches.
- He won 76% of first-serve points (519 of 683) and averaged 9.6 aces per match in those 13 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Grigor Dimitrov

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

−6.4ppshort

Dimitrov has the higher ranking and stronger serve numbers, and he has handled similar-ranked opponents on hard courts this season.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Dimitrov has the higher ranking and stronger serve numbers, and he has handled similar-ranked opponents on hard courts this season.
- Dimitrov is ranked 127, Butvilas 198.
- Dimitrov's hard-court sets won: 52.9% (9/17) and games won: 52.8% (86/163).
- Dimitrov's hard-court set1 record: 4-1; Butvilas: 11-3.
- Dimitrov beat lower-ranked hard-court opponents Skatov and Giustino in straight sets; his losses came to Baez and Rune.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGrigor DimitrovEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches sit right around this line, with several long three-set contests.
- Dimitrov's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 25.4 total games; Butvilas's average 25.9.
- Dimitrov's five hard-court best-of-3 matches included totals of 31, 32, 23, 15 and 26 games.
- Butvilas's six recent hard-court matches averaged 26.0 total games.
- Three of Dimitrov's five hard-court best-of-3 matches went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have averaged around ten games, right at this line.
- Dimitrov's first sets average 9.6 total games.
- Butvilas's first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Dimitrov had two first-set tiebreaks in five hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Butvilas had three first-set tiebreaks in fourteen hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's second sets have averaged just above this line, while Dimitrov's sit just below.
- Dimitrov's second sets average 9.2 total games.
- Butvilas's second sets average 9.7 total games.
- Dimitrov had no second-set tiebreaks in five hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Butvilas had two second-set tiebreaks in fourteen hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Dimitrov has been more reliable in second sets on hard courts, while Butvilas has struggled there.
- Dimitrov won the second set in 3 of 5 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Butvilas won the second set in 5 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Dimitrov's second-set games average is 4.8 won, 4.4 lost.
- Butvilas's second-set games average is 4.8 won, 4.9 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostGrigor DimitrovEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dimitrov has the stronger overall ranking and serve, and he has started well on hard courts recently.
- Dimitrov won the first set in 4 of 5 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Butvilas won the first set in 11 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Dimitrov's first-set games average is 6.2 won, 3.4 lost.
- Butvilas's first-set games average is 5.9 won, 4.1 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGrigor DimitrovEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a majority of three-set matches in their recent hard-court evidence.
- Dimitrov's hard-court best-of-3 matches averaged 2.6 sets; Butvilas's averaged 2.57.
- Dimitrov went to three sets in 3 of his 5 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Butvilas went to three sets in 8 of his 14 hard-court matches.
- Recent matches for both players include several three-set results.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in their recent hard-court sets.
- Dimitrov had a tiebreak in 3 of 5 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Butvilas had a tiebreak in 7 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Dimitrov's latest match against Rune included a 6-7 set.
- Butvilas's latest match against Kecmanovic included 5-7 and 5-7 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Grigor Dimitrov

9W 6L

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#142Holger Rune

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#176Elmer Moller

3-6 6-3 6-2 6-4#130Alexei Popyrin

7-6(5) 6-4#199Timofey Skatov

6-0 6-3#207Lorenzo Giustino

1-6 6-3 6-4#51Sebastian Baez

6-4 6-2#48Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#128Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 3-6 4-6 6-4 7-6(7)#36Arthur Fery

6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3#43Matteo Berrettini

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5 6-3#15Jakub Mensik

7-6(4) 6-3 7-5#110Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-3#29Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-2 6-4#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-1 7-6(3)#401Marc Polmans

Edas Butvilas

10W 5L

7-5 1-6 7-5#60Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#241Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#497Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#565Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#538Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#204Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#121Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#312Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#148Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#147Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#133Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#416Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#208Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#156Mackenzie Mcdonald

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GDGrigor DimitrovDimitrov

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Grigor Dimitrov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 14/1560.5%+1.3pp61.8%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 14/1576.0%+2.6pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 14/1552.1%—51.6%

Aces / Match13/15 · 14/159.6+3.66.0

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 14/155.33.0 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 14/1537.2%+3.1pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 14/1540.2%+10.3pp50.5%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 14/1552.6%+1.2pp51.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 14/1551.3%+1.4pp52.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.5%1st Serve In13/15 · 14/15+1.3pp61.8%

76.0%1st Serve Won13/15 · 14/15+2.6pp73.4%

52.1%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 14/15—51.6%

9.6Aces / Match13/15 · 14/15+3.66.0

5.3Double Faults / Match13/15 · 14/153.0 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

37.2%Return Pts Won13/15 · 14/15+3.1pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

40.2%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 14/15+10.3pp50.5%

52.6%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 14/15+1.2pp51.4%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 14/15+1.4pp52.7%

Grigor Dimitrov

Edas Butvilas

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Edas Butvilas

Edas Butvilas 2-1

Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Grigor Dimitrov

Edas Butvilas

Stat Battle