Bu Yunchaokete #118China11 – 2Novak Djokovic #5Serbia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Djokovic's serving and break-point defence hold up better than Bu's, and he has never lost a match at this tournament.

• Djokovic is No. 11 to Bu's No. 104 and is 30-0 at the China Open after beating Nuno Borges 6-3 7-6(2).
• In hard-court best-of-three play he is 4-0 in first sets, averaging 6.0 games won to 3.25 lost.
• He saved 70% of break points over his last 15 matches and 71.1% on hard.
• Bu's serve numbers are modest for this level: 56.9% first serves in and 48% of second-serve points won over 15 hard matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Djokovic has not been beating opponents by wide margins on hard recently, so a four-game cushion for Bu looks reasonable.

• Djokovic's hard-court game margins in the sample are +4, -6 and 0; his Beijing win over Borges was +4.
• Bu's winning hard-court margins include +4, +5 and +14.
• Bu covers if he loses by four games or fewer, or wins.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in long matches lately, and Djokovic's hard-court matches average above this line.

• Djokovic's hard-court best-of-three matches average 27.5 games; Bu's average 24.6.
• Djokovic's hard-court matches average 165.8 minutes.
• Bu's last five hard-court matches produced 30, 18, 34, 19 and 34 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in both samples sit right at the line, with Djokovic's often competitive.

• Bu's second sets on hard average 9.92 games; Djokovic's average 10.0.
• Djokovic has won only one of four second sets in the hard-court best-of-three sample, one of them via a tiebreak.
• Bu's second sets against Cerundolo and Majchrzak produced 12 and 13 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Opening sets in this sample sit close to the line and often run past it.

• Bu's opening sets on hard average 10.0 games; Djokovic's average 9.25.
• Bu's opening set against Majchrzak needed 13 games.
• Bu's opening set against Cerundolo produced eight games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Djokovic is still the stronger player across a full match even though the second set has been his weakest phase lately.

• Bu has won six of 13 second sets on hard, losing seven.
• Djokovic's second-set record in the hard-court best-of-three sample is 1-3.
• Djokovic has won 58.2% of sets overall across his last 15 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Djokovic's stretched-out recent matches and Bu's habit of going the distance point to a long contest.

• Djokovic's hard-court best-of-three matches average 2.75 sets; Bu's average 2.46.
• Djokovic's second-set record in that sample is 1-3.
• Bu has played a deciding set in six of 13 hard-court best-of-three matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player's hard-court ace rate is high enough to expect 16 across an ordinary two-or-three-set match.

• Djokovic 6.6 aces per hard match and Bu 6.1 combine to about 12.7 per match against a line of 15.5.
• Djokovic's 33 aces came in five hard-court matches; Bu's 92 came in 15.
• Neither player's hard-court first-serve percentage is above 61%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Djokovic's raised double-fault rate on hard lifts the combined total just above the line.

• Djokovic averages 5.0 double faults per hard match (25 in five) and 3.7 per match across his last 15.
• Bu averages 3.3 double faults per match across 15 hard matches.
• Combined hard-court average is about 8.3 against a line of 7.5.