Felix Auger Aliassime #4Canada22 – 3Novak Djokovic #8Serbia3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Djokovic's historic grass dominance and current 4-0 2026 grass record give him a clear edge over Auger-Aliassime, despite Felix's solid form.

• Djokovic career grass win% 83% vs Auger-Aliassime 35-14 (71%) but Djokovic has 7 Wimbledon titles and 106 match wins at event.
• Djokovic 2026 grass: 4-0, Auger-Aliassime 7-2 but Djokovic's wins include Tsitsipas and Safiullin; Auger-Aliassime's best win vs #23 Davidovich Fokina in 5 sets.
• H2H 1-1 but both matches on other surfaces; Djokovic's grass pedigree far superior.
• Djokovic first-set win conversion 96% career, Auger-Aliassime 87%; Djokovic deciding set win% 72% vs 61%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing ability to extend sets and Djokovic's recent four-set battles, a longer match is plausible.

• Auger-Aliassime's last 5 matches: 31, 19, 20, 18, 15 games; Djokovic's last 5: 22, 21, 18, 23, 25 games.
• Both players have had multiple 4+ set matches this tournament; Djokovic's last two went 4 sets.
• H2H matches were 6-3 7-6 and 7-5 7-6, averaging 22 games per best-of-3; scaling to Bo5 suggests potential for 35+ games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Auger-Aliassime's strong serving and recent competitive matches suggest he can stay within 5.5 games even in a loss.

• Auger-Aliassime's last 5 matches: avg games won 20.6; Djokovic's last 5: avg games won 21.2.
• In Djokovic's four-set wins, opponent games: 18, 21, 19; Auger-Aliassime's five-set win had 31 games.
• Auger-Aliassime's first-serve win% 75% on grass can keep sets close.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends and strong serving suggest a tight opening set with over 9.5 games.

• Auger-Aliassime's last 5 first sets: 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3, 3-6 (avg 10.4 games).
• Djokovic's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4, 4-6 (avg 9.8 games).
• Both players have high first-serve win% (75% and 74%) making breaks harder.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match patterns for both players strongly indicate at least four sets will be played.

• Djokovic's last 3 Wimbledon matches all went 4 sets; Auger-Aliassime's last match went 5 sets.
• Both players have dropped at least one set in 3 of their 4 tournament matches.
• Auger-Aliassime's break-point save rate 63.3% is solid, likely extending sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Djokovic's elite first-set conversion rate and strong start in this tournament make him likely to take the opener.

• Djokovic career first-set win conversion 96%, Auger-Aliassime 87%.
• Djokovic has won first set in 3 of 4 Wimbledon 2026 matches; Auger-Aliassime won first set in 3 of 4 but vs weaker opponents.
• Djokovic tiebreak win% 65% career vs Auger-Aliassime 59%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The combination of strong serving and recent tiebreak frequency makes at least one tiebreak likely.

• Auger-Aliassime has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 5 matches; Djokovic in 2 of his last 5.
• Both have strong tiebreak records: Djokovic 65% career, Auger-Aliassime 59%.
• H2H both matches featured a tiebreak; grass often produces tight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Moderate double fault rates and match importance should keep total double faults under 8.5.

• Djokovic double fault rate 3% career, Auger-Aliassime 4.9%.
• In Bo5, expected double faults: Djokovic ~3-4, Auger-Aliassime ~5-6, total ~8-10.
• Both players are experienced and unlikely to have high double fault counts under pressure.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Auger-Aliassime's high ace rate on grass and the extended match expectation push total aces over 22.5.

• Auger-Aliassime ace rate 11% career, Djokovic 7.4%; Auger-Aliassime has 5380 career aces in 660 matches (~8.2 per match).
• In Bo5 on grass, ace counts often rise; Auger-Aliassime's height (193cm) and serve power favor aces.
• Djokovic's recent Wimbledon matches: aces not provided but his career ace rate suggests ~6-8 aces per match.