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Predictions graded

Masamichi Imamura #415Japan0Petr Bar Biryukov #285Russia2

Sets 5-7 · 4-6Wed 30 Sept 2026, 03:07 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Bar Biryukov · 130 places

Masamichi Imamura

Japan

Structured player data lists Imamura at No. 415 for this match. No reliable public career-profile detail was confirmed.

Current ranking: #415
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 04:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Bar Biryukov is 139 ranking places above an opponent who has not won since 21 August, and his serve — 75% of first-serve points, 9.6 aces a match — points to him winning.

Imamura's better return numbers and Bar Biryukov's 4.7 double faults a match are the counterweight. At 1.65, a Bar Biryukov win is the one reviewed price with a small edge; his 1.73 first-set price offers no clear advantage.

Context

Imamura is ranked No. 408 and has not won a match since 21 August, with his most recent outing a straight-sets exit from Hangzhou Open qualifying on 22 September. It matters here because his opponent spent the same fortnight winning at Challenger and ATP 250 qualifying level, so the two men come into the same event on opposite form lines. Two of the five defeats, to Bernard Tomic and Yunseong Chung, went to a deciding set, so the sequence has not been uniformly one-sided. He enters the match with no win in more than five weeks and no recent evidence of closing out tight sets.
- Imamura lost 6-1 6-4 to Rio Noguchi in Hangzhou Open qualifying on 22 September.
- The defeat extended a losing run that started after his last win on 21 August.
- Earlier defeats in the run came against Enzo Aguiard (14 September), Yunseong Chung (8 September), Bernard Tomic (1 September) and Yu Hsiou Hsu (22 August).
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Bar Biryukov's serve is the biggest single weapon either player brings to this first-round match.
Winning three-quarters of first-serve points has made him hard to break, and he has saved 49 of 73 break points (67.1%) in the sample. The 4.7 double faults per match, against 1.5 for Imamura, keep loose service games in play for an opponent who wins 40.0% of return points. The figures cover 15 tracked hard-court matches, not a full season.
- Last-15 hard-court sample: 9.6 aces and 4.7 double faults per match, 56.8% of first serves in, 75.0% of first-serve points won.
- Break points saved in that window: 49 of 73 (67.1%).
- Imamura's same-window hard-court sample: 1.5 double faults per match and 40.0% of return points won.
Guangzhou is the only recent stretch in which Bar Biryukov, ranked No. 269, has won consecutive matches, and it came at Challenger level, the level of this fixture. He followed it by winning a round of ATP 250 qualifying three days later, so the form has carried into a second week rather than staying a one-week spike. The counterpoint is the opposition: Delaney (No. 898), Honda (No. 600) and Leong (No. 421) are all ranked well below him, and he lost to Sharipov (No. 232), the only top-250 player he faced that week. Imamura, at No. 408, sits between those two groups.
- Bar Biryukov won three matches in Guangzhou, over Delaney, Honda and Leong.
- The Leong match was settled by a third-set tie-break, 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0).
- He lost the semi-final to Marat Sharipov 7-5 6-3 on 19 September.
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Winning 7-6(4) 7-6(5) against Andre Ilagan shows Bar Biryukov closing out the tight sets that decide qualifying matches, and he did it three days after his Guangzhou semi-final. The result is bounded by what followed: a 6-4 6-4 defeat to Alexandre Muller, ranked No. 135, in the deciding qualifying round, which left him at Challenger level for Jingshan instead of in an ATP 250 main draw. Against Imamura, ranked 139 places below him, the useful signal is that Bar Biryukov has been converting matches against opponents in and around his own level this swing.
- Bar Biryukov won his opening Chengdu qualifying match 7-6(4) 7-6(5) on 22 September.
- He lost the final qualifying round 6-4 6-4 .
- The opponent in that match, Alexandre Muller, is ranked No. 135.
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Biryukov has the bigger serve and clearly the better recent results of the two.
- Ranked 269 vs 408; 8-7 on hard in the last 15 with 4 wins in his last 6 completed matches
- Wins 75.0% of first-serve points and averages 9.6 aces per match
- Imamura has 1 win in his last 6 completed matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's first sets have regularly run past nine games, helped by his serve and tiebreak frequency.
- Biryukov's first sets average 10.9 games; Imamura's 9.1
- Biryukov has had 5 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these players' matches have tended to be shorter than openers, with Imamura often fading.
- Imamura's second sets average 8.4 games
- Combined second-set average is about 9.3 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A one-sided win for the stronger server keeps the game count below the line.
- Imamura's hard-court matches average 19.4 games
- Imamura's recent straight-set losses were 5-12, 5-12 and 2-12 in games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have usually finished in straight sets, and the large serve gap points to a short match.
- Three-set matches make up about 20-21% of both players' hard-court samples
- Biryukov's scorelines: 6 two-set wins, 6 two-set losses, 3 three-set matches
- Imamura's scorelines: 11 two-set matches, 3 three-set matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Biryukov starts sets with the more reliable serve and has the better first-set record of the two.
- Biryukov has won 8 of 15 first sets on hard; Imamura 6 of 14
- Biryukov wins 75.0% of first-serve points
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's serve remains the main weapon and should keep him ahead in the second set.
- Second sets on hard: Biryukov 7 wins from 15, Imamura 7 from 14
- Biryukov averages 9.6 aces per match
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Imamura's serve is breakable, so his sets usually finish before a tiebreak can arrive.
- Imamura's hard-court matches produced a tiebreak in only 2 of 14
- Imamura's sets average about 8.8 games in total
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate sits just under the line, especially with most matches lasting two sets.
- Biryukov double-faults 4.7 times per match; Imamura 1.5
- Combined average is about 6.2 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Imamura's return numbers and the likelihood of a two-set match keep the ace count near the line.
- Combined sample average is about 11.1 aces per match
- Imamura wins 40.0% of return points, so he gets a racquet on a lot of serves
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Petr Bar Biryukov: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Petr Bar Biryukov matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Petr Bar Biryukov5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#285Petr Bar Biryukov0-2#541Luca Staeheli

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#285Petr Bar Biryukov0-2#541Luca Staeheli

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

62%probability

Luca Staeheli won

Missed

20 Jun·ATP Mallorca

#300Antoine Ghibaudo2-0#274Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·62%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

ATP Mallorca

#300Antoine Ghibaudo2-0#274Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

62%probability

Antoine Ghibaudo won

Missed

21 May·Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong1-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·65%

Matched

21 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong1-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

65%probability

Petr Bar Biryukov won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#651Leo Vithoontien0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·65%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#651Leo Vithoontien0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

65%probability

Petr Bar Biryukov won

Matched

19 May·Bengaluru - India

—Christopher Papa0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·62%

Matched

19 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

—Christopher Papa0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

62%probability

Petr Bar Biryukov won

Matched

Previous match context available

Masamichi Imamura

7W 8L

6-1 6-4#221Rio Noguchi

6-3 6-2#435Enzo Aguiard

6-3 3-6 6-3#894Yunseong Chung

6-4 3-6 6-4#182Bernard Tomic

6-1 6-1#296Yu Hsiou Hsu

3-6 6-0 10-2#557Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-0—Noritaka Koizumi

6-4 6-1#682Shinji Hazawa

6-2 6-1#288Sergey Fomin

6-3 6-4#594Erik Arutiunian

7-6(3) 6-3#391Antoine Ghibaudo

6-1 6-1#642Roger Pascual Ferra

7-5 6-1#766Darian King

6-4 3-6 6-1#781James Tracy

6-4 7-6(6)#255James McCabe

Petr Bar Biryukov

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#135Alexandre Muller 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#184Andre Ilagan 7-5 6-3#232Marat Sharipov (RUS)7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#600Naoya Honda

6-3 6-4#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#424Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-3#421Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#867Qian Sun

7-5 6-3#634Kokoro Isomura

7-6(3) 6-4#796Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4—James Van Herzeele

6-4 6-4—Zhiheng Xia

6-4 6-2#456Jie Cui

6-2 6-3#761Taisei Ichikawa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MIMasamichi ImamuraImamura

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Petr Bar BiryukovBiryukovPB

Masamichi Imamura carries the stronger recent form — Petr Bar Biryukov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.1%+4.3pp56.8%

1st Serve Won66.1%+8.9pp75.0%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+1.9pp53.1%

Aces / Match1.5+8.19.6

Double Faults / Match1.53.2 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.0%+8.8pp31.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.4%+16.3pp31.1%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+12.6pp67.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.2%+1.1pp49.1%

Serve · 2–3

61.1%1st Serve In+4.3pp56.8%

66.1%1st Serve Won+8.9pp75.0%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp53.1%

1.5Aces / Match+8.19.6

1.5Double Faults / Match3.2 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

40.0%Return Pts Won+8.8pp31.2%

Pressure · 1–1

47.4%Break Pts Converted+16.3pp31.1%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+12.6pp67.1%

Points · 1–0

50.2%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.1%