ATP MallorcaFinished

Predictions graded

Antoine Ghibaudo #300France2Petr Bar Biryukov #274Russia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Sat 20 Jun 2026, 09:15 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Bar Biryukov · 26 places

Antoine Ghibaudo

France

Current structured reference lists him at ATP No. 300, 191 cm, and right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Public ATP bio fields were sparse in the sources reviewed, so age, career-high data, and a verified preferred surface are left unfilled rather than guessed.

Current ranking: #300
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Current structured reference lists him at ATP No. 274, 196 cm, and left-handed with a two-handed backhand. The official Mallorca qualifying draw confirms his current seeded status, but reliable public bio fields for age, career-high data, and preferred surface were sparse in the sources reviewed.

Current ranking: #274
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jun 2026, 08:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Petr Bar Biryukov's elite serve and hot form give him a clear edge over Antoine Ghibaudo on grass.

Back Bar Biryukov to win the match and first set, but avoid the over 21.5 total games market due to thin value. Expect a competitive match with a tiebreak likely.

Context

Bar Biryukov's 2026 grass record: 0 wins, 1 loss.
- Career surface wins show 0 on grass, with 150 on hard and 18 on clay.
- His only grass match this year was a straight-set loss to Stefano Travaglia.
Last 5 matches: 1 win, 4 losses.
- Lost the first set in 4 of those 5 matches.
- Three of the four losses were in straight sets.
Retired on 29 May vs Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski after losing the first set in a tiebreak.
- Played a full match on 16 June, losing in straight sets to Stefano Travaglia.
- No further injury reports found in current tournament intel.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total GameslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 21.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Recent match data for both players shows high total game counts, and their H2H was a tight three-setter, pointing to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Bar Biryukov's superior serve stats and much stronger recent form (8-2 last 10) give him a clear edge over Ghibaudo, who has struggled recently (1-4 last 5).
- Bar Biryukov has a 60.2% career win rate vs Ghibaudo's 55.8%
- Bar Biryukov's ace rate is 13.5% vs Ghibaudo's 5.3%, a big serve edge on grass
- Bar Biryukov has won 8 of his last 10 matches, while Ghibaudo has lost 4 of his last 5
- Bar Biryukov's break point save rate is 62.6% vs Ghibaudo's 59.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Recent match data for both players shows high total game counts, and their H2H was a tight three-setter, pointing to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Ghibaudo's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games
- Bar Biryukov's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 total games
- Their only H2H match had 31 total games
- Both players have break point save rates under 63%, suggesting breaks are possible
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Strong serving from both players in recent matches suggests a tight first set likely to go over 9.5 games.
- Bar Biryukov's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games
- Ghibaudo's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games
- Both players have first serve win rates around 70%, limiting quick breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively on first serve, the second set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Bar Biryukov's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games
- Ghibaudo's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games
- Both players have similar second serve win rates around 50%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Bar Biryukov's strong serving and Ghibaudo's recent pattern of losing first sets make Bar Biryukov the favorite to take the opener.
- Bar Biryukov's first serve win rate is 74.5% vs Ghibaudo's 69.3%
- Bar Biryukov has a 61% tiebreak win rate, Ghibaudo 53%
- Ghibaudo has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bar Biryukov's elite ace rate and the grass surface should push the total aces over 12.5, even with Ghibaudo's lower ace output.
- Bar Biryukov averages 13.5% aces per serve, Ghibaudo 5.3%
- In their H2H, Bar Biryukov hit 14 aces, Ghibaudo 2
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts for big servers
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players and Bar Biryukov's frequent tiebreak appearances make a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Bar Biryukov has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 10 matches
- Ghibaudo has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 10 matches
- Their H2H featured a first-set tiebreak
- Both players have first serve win rates above 69%, making breaks harder
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bar Biryukov's higher double fault rate and the grass surface make over 6.5 double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Bar Biryukov's double fault rate is 6.7%, Ghibaudo's 4.2%
- Bar Biryukov had 5 double faults in their H2H
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serving
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(5) 3-6 6-3Antoine Ghibaudo#300vPetr Bar Biryukov#274Jul 25, 2024

1 total meetings

Antoine Ghibaudo

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 6-4—Oliver Okonkwo

7-6(2) 6-4#687James Watt

6-4 6-2#146Michael Zheng

7-6(8) 6-3#264Franco Agamenone

3-6 7-5 6-1—Skander Nsairi

6-4 6-3#378Manas Manoj Dhamne

3-6 6-4 6-0#255Andrej Nedic

5-7 6-2 6-3#403Samuele Pieri

6-2 7-5#834Oleksii Krutykh

6-2 6-2#176Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-3#497Jelle Sels

6-3 6-3#446Radu Albot

6-3 6-4#341Mili Poljicak

6-4 6-2#447Sebastian Sorger

6-2 6-4—Simon Reveniau

Petr Bar Biryukov

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-3#132Stefano Travaglia

6-7(8) 7-6(1) 6-3#131Roman Safiullin

7-5 6-1—Ruslan Tiukaev

6-7(0) 6-4 6-3—Egor Pleshivtsev

6-3 3-6 6-3—Gregorio Biondolillo

7-6(2) 1-2 ret.#655Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

7-6(5) 6-7(0) 6-4—Mikhail Khodorchenko

7-5 6-4—Maties Torres Ramis

7-6(0) 4-6 6-4#547Ilya Ivashka

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#270Alastair Gray

6-2 5-7 6-3#552Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(2) 6-4#679Leo Vithoontien

6-2 6-2—Christopher Papa

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(3)#270Alastair Gray

6-2 7-5#218Rio Noguchi