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Predictions graded

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #316Brazil0Andrew Fenty #394United States2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Tue 29 Sept 2026, 19:19 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIgor Ribeiro Marcondes · 78 places

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Brazil

Reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 258 in March 2022. He was reported to be returning to the circuit in July 2026 after lateral-meniscus surgery.

Current ranking: #316
Peak ranking: #258 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #394
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 01:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Marcondes arrives from a Sunday Challenger final in California; Fenty has been idle since 21 September and is 13-16 for 2026.

Marcondes, ranked 324 to Fenty's 431, is the likely winner of this round-of-32 match, though he has dropped the opening set in four of his last six matches. Marcondes at 1.53 and Fenty at 2.38 are both priced beyond what the records justify, so no reviewed price here is worth taking.

Context

Marcondes is the higher-ranked player but has conceded the first set in three of the four wins in his last five matches.
Fenty has won 8 of 13 opening sets on hard and averages 5.54 games in them, so the first set is the phase where the ranking gap looks smallest. It does not overturn Marcondes' overall edge, but it makes a fast start from the favourite less certain than the rankings imply.
- Won 2 of 8 opening sets on hard courts between 17 Aug and 27 Sep 2026, averaging 4.5 games won and 5.4 lost per first set.
- Won 5 of 8 second sets in the same sample, averaging 5.0 games won and 4.75 lost.
- One retirement is excluded from the eight hard-court matches, and two of them contained a tiebreak.
The ranking gain follows a run to a third career Challenger final, his first since 2022, and moves him within a few places of the No. 258 career high he set in March 2022. It matters here because the gap to Fenty's entry ranking overstates how far apart the two currently are on hard courts. The figure is a projected post-tournament position rather than an already-published ranking, so it can move with the next update.
- Rose to about No. 269 with a gain of roughly 55 places
- Career-high ranking of No. 258 set in March 2022
- Third Challenger final of his career and first since 2022
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 01:12 · Europe/Bucharest
Fenty's matches tend to be settled in two sets, in either direction.
His second sets average 9.15 total games and include no tiebreaks, and only two of his 13 hard-court matches reached a third set. For this round-of-32 match that points to a short contest whichever way it goes, though Marcondes' own eight-match sample has been less clear-cut on that measure.
- 13 hard-court matches tracked from 28 Jun to 21 Sep 2026, with an 8-5 record.
- Scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss and one 2-1 win, so 11 of 13 ended in straight sets.
- Second sets averaged 9.15 total games with no tiebreaks; the two tiebreaks in the sample came in first sets.
- Two retirements are excluded from the sample.
The Legout win is the longest of the six matches in Marcondes' tracked recent record.
It is the heaviest single result in his recent file, and it came the day before he played the San Diego final on 27 September. The record shows a busy weekend and a tight turnaround into this round of 32; it does not show how well he has recovered, which is a question rather than a settled conclusion.
- Beat Timo Legout, ranked No. 410, 6-7(5) 7-5 7-5 on 26 September 2026, winning 20 games to 17.
- The match lasted three sets and 37 total games, the largest match total in his tracked recent record.
- It was his second three-set win of the week before the 27 September final.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1.53fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 65.4%

−0.4ppshort

Marcondes is the higher-ranked, in-form player coming off a Challenger final, while Fenty has a losing 2026 record and lost his latest match to a far lower-ranked opponent.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Marcondes is the higher-ranked, in-form player coming off a Challenger final, while Fenty has a losing 2026 record and lost his latest match to a far lower-ranked opponent.
- Marcondes is ATP No. 324 and 9-5 in his last 15 completed matches, 5-3 on hard
- He won four of his last five matches, reaching the San Diego 2 Challenger final, beating No. 200 Federico Gomez and No. 410 Timo Legout
- Fenty is ATP No. 431, 8-5 on hard in this window but 13-16 for 2026 and beaten 6-3 6-3 in San Diego qualifying by No. 594 Erik Arutiunian
- Fenty's recent wins came against opponents ranked 594-698, a weaker level than Marcondes' recent opposition
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marcondes' matches have run long recently and Fenty's last six were also above this line, so slightly more than half of the likely outcomes clear 21.5 games.
- Marcondes' hard-court matches average 23 total games
- His last six completed matches averaged about 24.7 games
- Fenty's hard-court average is 20.9 games but his last six averaged 22.7
- Both have played two hard-court matches with a tiebreak in this window
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have averaged at or above ten games, so more often than not the first set goes past 9.5 games.
- Marcondes' first sets on hard average 9.9 total games
- Fenty's first sets on hard average 10.4 total games
- Marcondes has won only 4.5 games on average in first sets, Fenty 5.54
- Each player has one first-set tiebreak in the tracked sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's second sets have finished below this line on average and neither player has had many second-set tiebreaks, so a shorter second set is slightly more likely.
- Fenty's second sets average 9.15 total games with no tiebreaks
- Marcondes' second sets average 9.75 total games
- Fenty lost only 4.23 games on average in second sets
- Marcondes lost 4.75 games on average in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished matches in straight sets, and Fenty in particular rarely plays a deciding set on hard courts.
- Eleven of Fenty's 13 hard-court matches finished in straight sets
- Five of Marcondes' eight hard-court matches finished in straight sets
- Combined, the two players' hard-court sets average 2.27 per match
- Only two of Fenty's 13 matches went to a decider
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marcondes has been noticeably stronger in second sets, winning five of his last six, which points to him being the more likely winner if the match reaches that stage.
- Marcondes has won 5 of 8 second sets on hard, averaging 5.0 games won and 4.75 lost
- Fenty has won 8 of 13 second sets on hard, averaging 4.92 games won and 4.23 lost
- Marcondes won the second set in five of his last six matches
- Marcondes' three recent three-set wins all followed a lost opening set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marcondes is the better player overall but has repeatedly started slowly on hard, so the opening set is close to even despite the ranking gap.
- Marcondes has won only 2 of 8 opening sets on hard, losing 6, with an average of 4.5 games won
- Fenty has won 8 of 13 opening sets on hard, averaging 5.54 games won and 4.85 lost
- Marcondes has lost the first set in four of his six most recent matches
- Marcondes played a nearly three-hour semi-final and a final in the days before this match
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in only a small share of both players' recent hard-court matches, so a match without one is the more likely outcome.
- Marcondes has had a tiebreak in 2 of 8 hard-court matches
- Fenty has had a tiebreak in 2 of 13 hard-court matches
- Fenty has no second-set tiebreaks, Marcondes one
- Both players' matches average just over two sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%

Prediction history

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Igor Ribeiro Marcondes matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Igor Ribeiro Marcondes4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1—Linus Lagerbohm

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·65%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1—Linus Lagerbohm

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

65%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Matched

20 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-0#607Leonardo Rossi

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-0#607Leonardo Rossi

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

62%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Matched

19 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1#867Alan Wazny

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·62%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1#867Alan Wazny

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

62%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Matched

7 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#565Filip Planinsek2-0#328Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·65%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#565Filip Planinsek2-0#328Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

65%probability

Filip Planinsek won

Missed

Previous match context available

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

9W 6L

7-5 6-4#167Nishesh Basavareddy

6-7(5) 7-5 7-5#410Timo Legout 4-6 6-4 6-1#200Federico Agustin Gomez 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2#864Patrick Maloney

6-1 6-3#416Ozan Baris

6-2 6-2#167Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 6-2#672Max Purcell

6-7(3) 6-3 ret.#197Lautaro Midon

6-4 6-2#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-2 6-2#186Diego Dedura

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

4-6 6-4 6-3#846Linus Lagerbohm

7-5 6-2#545Leonardo Rossi

7-5 4-6 6-0#815Alan Wazny

7-6(7) 7-5#197Lautaro Midon

Andrew Fenty

8W 7L

6-3 6-3#594Erik Arutiunian 7-5 6-4#596Kaylan Bigun

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#606Ryan Seggerman

7-5 7-5#657Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-2 6-3#698Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-4#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

7-5 6-2#513Evan Zhu

2-6 6-3 6-4#603Hunter Heck

7-6(2) 6-1#136Lloyd Harris

6-1 6-4#840Evan King

6-4 6-1—Eli Dieveney

6-7(11) 4-1 ret.#218Jeff Wolf

3-0 ret.#338Edward Winter

6-4 6-1#408Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-3#460Karl Poling

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IMIgor Ribeiro MarcondesMarcondes

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Andrew FentyFentyAF

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes carries the stronger recent form — Andrew Fenty's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1566.1%+3.9pp62.2%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1569.0%—69.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1554.6%+1.2pp53.4%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/155.4—5.5

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.21.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1540.0%+2.3pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1548.8%+10.3pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1543.1%+18.8pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1551.9%+1.4pp50.5%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

66.1%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+3.9pp62.2%

69.0%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15—69.1%

54.6%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+1.2pp53.4%

5.4Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15—5.5

2.2Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

40.0%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+2.3pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

48.8%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+10.3pp38.5%

43.1%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+18.8pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp50.5%