Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #318Brazil22 – 1Linus LagerbohmFinland1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20

The read

Marcondes' superior ranking, consistent clay-court performance against higher-level opponents, and recent qualifying wins at the same venue give him a clear edge over the wild card Lagerbohm.

• Marcondes has a 64.3% win rate on clay in his last 15 matches (9-5 record), while Lagerbohm is 6-2 on clay in the same window but against lower-ranked opponents.
• Marcondes holds a 69.2% first-serve points won rate on clay in the last 15 matches, compared to Lagerbohm's 66.4%.
• Marcondes has a 41% return points won rate on clay in the last 15 matches, slightly below Lagerbohm's 43.5%, but Marcondes faces stronger opposition (avg opponent rank ~350 vs. ~600).
• Marcondes is ranked #318 with extensive Challenger experience, while Lagerbohm is unranked and primarily plays ITF M15 events.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of competitive clay-court rallies and both players' ability to convert break points points to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Marcondes' last 15 clay matches average 22.6 total games per match.
• Lagerbohm's last 8 clay matches average 21.9 total games per match.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Marcondes 37.8%, Lagerbohm 45% in last 15), leading to more games.
• In Marcondes' last 5 matches, 4 have gone over 21.5 total games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Marcondes' recent trend of tight first sets and Lagerbohm's ability to push sets deep make over 9.5 games in set 1 likely.

• Marcondes' last 5 clay matches have seen first sets of 7-5, 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, and 7-6, all over 9.5 games.
• Lagerbohm's last 5 clay matches have first sets of 6-3, 6-7, 2-6, 6-3, and 6-4, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Marcondes has played 7 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches, indicating tight opening sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While not as strong as set 1, the second set could still be competitive if Lagerbohm maintains his level, but Marcondes' ability to close may keep it under.

• Marcondes' last 5 clay matches have second sets of 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6, and 6-3, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Lagerbohm's last 5 clay matches have second sets of 7-6, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4, and 6-4, with 2 of 5 over 9.5.
• Both players have similar second-serve points won percentages on clay (Marcondes 57%, Lagerbohm 52.5%), which can extend games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Lagerbohm's tendency for double faults, especially under pressure, could tip the total over 5.5, though Marcondes' consistency keeps it close.

• Marcondes averages 2.2 double faults per match on clay in his last 15, Lagerbohm averages 2.9.
• Combined average is 5.1, slightly below 5.5, but Lagerbohm's higher rate (3.1 overall in last 15) could push it over.
• Lagerbohm has 3+ double faults in 5 of his last 8 clay matches.