United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andrew Fenty #424United States0Erik Arutiunian #600Belarus2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 20:29 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Fenty · 176 places

Andrew Fenty

United States

Ranked No. 424 and listed at 193 cm, playing right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Recent recorded matches are all on hard courts; no dependable public detail on age, career-high ranking or a preferred surface was available for this fixture.

Current ranking: #424
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Erik Arutiunian

Belarus

Ranked No. 600 and listed at 191 cm, playing right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Recent recorded matches are almost entirely on hard courts; no dependable public detail on age, career-high ranking or a preferred surface was available for this fixture.

Current ranking: #600
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players with near-identical hard-court records meet in the third round of qualifying in San Diego, and the small gap sits in Fenty's first-set record and his habit of winning in straight sets.

Fenty is the slightly more likely winner, probably in two sets. The prices reviewed — Fenty at 1.73, Arutiunian at 2.00 — ask for more than those records justify, so neither is worth taking.

Context

Fenty has been a front-runner in this window: he wins his first sets 9-4 and rarely needs a third set to finish a match.
That pattern points to a quick, two-set contest in San Diego, though three 0-2 defeats in the same 13-match sample show the straight-set finishes have not all gone his way.
- Fenty's 13 tracked hard-court matches from 20 June to 20 September 2026 include seven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 1-2 losses and three 0-2 losses.
- Ten of the 13 matches were decided in straight sets, and two retirements were excluded from the sample.
- His first-set record in that window is 9-4, with 5.8 games won and 4.6 lost on average.
Fenty had taken the first set before the match turned, so the defeat came after a strong start rather than a slow one.
It is the clearest sign in his sample that Fenty's level can drop inside a match, and a reminder that the ranking gap to Arutiunian promises nothing on the day.
- On 13 September 2026 Fenty lost 7-6 5-7 2-6 to Ryan Seggerman, who was ranked 672.
- Fenty took the opening set on a tiebreak, then dropped the second and third sets 5-7 and 2-6.
Arutiunian's most recent outing was a clean one, both sets taken by the same 6-4 margin.
It is the freshest result on his record and it came against a player ranked above him, which is why the ranking gap to Fenty looks like a small edge rather than a divide.
- Arutiunian beat Luca Staeheli 6-4 6-4 on 20 September 2026 in a completed hard-court match.
- Staeheli was ranked 456, while Arutiunian is ranked 600.
- Arutiunian won 12 games to 8 across the two sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Andrew Fenty

1.73fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 57.8%

−1.8ppshort

Fenty sits higher in the rankings, has the better first-set record on this surface and wins more of his matches without dropping a set, which gives him a small but real edge in a close qualifying match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Fenty sits higher in the rankings, has the better first-set record on this surface and wins more of his matches without dropping a set, which gives him a small but real edge in a close qualifying match.
- Fenty is ranked 424, Arutiunian 600
- Fenty 8-5 on hard in the tracked window, Arutiunian 9-6
- Fenty's set-one record is 9-4, Arutiunian's 9-6
- Seven of Fenty's eight wins came in straight sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average close to or above ten games, with tiebreaks appearing in a decent share of their matches.
- Fenty's first sets average 10.4 total games
- Arutiunian's first sets average 9.7 total games
- Fenty has two first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches
- Arutiunian has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this pair's records are generally decided before ten games, and tiebreaks are rare at this stage of a match.
- Fenty's second sets average 9.2 total games
- Arutiunian's second sets average 9.5 total games
- Only one second-set tiebreak across 28 tracked matches
- Fenty averages 4.9 games won against 4.2 lost in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' completed matches on this surface sit right around or above the line, and their recent runs have been slightly longer than their overall averages.
- Fenty's tracked matches average 21.9 total games
- Arutiunian's tracked matches average 20.0 total games
- Fenty's six most recent completed matches average 23.0 games
- Arutiunian's six most recent completed matches average 21.2 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' records on this surface, so two sets is the more likely length.
- Only four of the combined 28 tracked matches went to a third set
- Fenty's straight-set wins: seven of eight
- Arutiunian's straight-set wins: eight of nine
- Arutiunian's tracked matches average 2.07 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty has the stronger first-set record of the two and starts matches with a higher games-won average.
- Fenty is 9-4 in first sets on hard
- Arutiunian is 9-6 in first sets on hard
- Fenty averages 5.8 games won and 4.6 lost in first sets
- Arutiunian averages 5.0 games won and 4.7 lost in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty holds a slightly better second-set record and usually keeps the middle-set games count lower, which helps him close sets out.
- Fenty is 8-5 in second sets on hard
- Arutiunian is 8-7 in second sets on hard
- Fenty averages 4.9 games won and 4.2 lost in second sets
- Fenty's set-two games average total is 9.2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' sets are settled before a tiebreak, so a match without one is the more likely outcome.
- 21 of the combined 28 tracked matches had no tiebreak
- Fenty has no second-set tiebreaks in 13 matches
- Arutiunian has one second-set tiebreak in 15 matches
- Arutiunian's matches average 83.9 minutes
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%

Previous match context available

Andrew Fenty

8W 7L

7-5 6-4#582Kaylan Bigun

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#672Ryan Seggerman

7-5 7-5#658Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-2 6-3#690Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-4#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

7-5 6-2#522Evan Zhu

2-6 6-3 6-4#700Hunter Heck

7-6(2) 6-1#138Lloyd Harris

6-1 6-4#840Evan King

6-4 6-1—Eli Dieveney

6-7(11) 4-1 ret.#246Jeff Wolf

3-0 ret.#341Edward Winter

6-4 6-1#411Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-3#457Karl Poling

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#541Gavin Young

Erik Arutiunian

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#456Luca Staeheli

6-3 6-4#206Braden Shick

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#451Spencer Johnson

6-3 6-1—Nicholas Godsick

6-3 6-4#411Masamichi Imamura

6-1 1-6 7-6(4)#575Sanhui Shin

6-4 6-4#464Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-3#895Egor Pleshivtsev

7-6(1) 6-2#452Kenta Miyoshi

6-2 6-3#468Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 6-2#403Justin Boulais

7-6(4) 6-3#621Bruno Kuzuhara

6-2 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele

6-2 7-5#533Cannon Kingsley

6-4 6-4#768Ben Jones

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFAndrew FentyFenty

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Erik ArutiunianArutiunianEA

Andrew Fenty carries the stronger recent form — Erik Arutiunian's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.6%+5.7pp56.9%

1st Serve Won68.9%+1.4pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won53.5%—53.0%

Aces / Match5.8—5.9

Double Faults / Match4.21.7 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.4%+3.0pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.8%+9.6pp48.4%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+1.2pp62.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.9%+1.5pp49.4%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

62.6%1st Serve In+5.7pp56.9%

68.9%1st Serve Won+1.4pp70.3%

53.5%2nd Serve Won—53.0%

5.8Aces / Match—5.9

4.2Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

38.4%Return Pts Won+3.0pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

38.8%Break Pts Converted+9.6pp48.4%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp62.8%

Points · 1–0

50.9%Total Pts Won+1.5pp49.4%