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Predictions graded

Harriet Dart #276United Kingdom2Yexin Ma #181China0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Tue 29 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions7–370%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYexin Ma · 95 places

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Yexin Ma

China

Public profile sources identify her as a right-handed Chinese player born June 10, 1999, with a career high of No. 165. No reliable current injury, return-from-absence, coaching, or surface-preference report was located.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #165
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 16:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Beijing's final qualifying round is a straight fight for a main-draw place: Dart, No. 116, against Ma, No.

161. Dart won her opener 6-2 6-3 and is the more likely winner, but Ma has won nine of her last 15 on hard and came from a set down to reach this round. Dart's 1.45 offers little; Ma at 2.75 to win the match is the one price that holds up.

Context

Ma's route into the deciding round cost her three sets and required overturning a one-set deficit, a heavier load than a straight-set win one day before the final qualifying round. The practical consequence is recovery time: a longer match leaves a shorter window before the 29 September contest. This is a workload story rather than a form judgment, and it sits against her recent pattern of winning matches from behind, such as the three-set comeback over Emerson Jones in Seoul.
- Stored Beijing qualifying sample shows Ma winning 4-6 6-1 6-3 against Yufei Ren
- Live match report placed Ma on serve at 2-1 in the second set of the same qualifying match
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 16:23 · Europe/Bucharest
The tie in Shenzhen ran through 27 September, a day before Dart's Beijing qualifying opener, so her preparation week was built around team-event doubles rather than a singles tournament. That means travel from Shenzhen to Beijing and a switch back to singles immediately before a qualifying draw. The doubles assignment also kept her on court in a format that does not replicate the demands of a qualifying singles match.
- Dart named in the Great Britain squad for the Billie Jean King Cup Finals in Shenzhen
- Dart scheduled in the doubles pairing against Muchova and Siniakova, with the finals held 23-27 September
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 16:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Dart has been the stronger finisher when matches stretch, even though she does not always close opponents out in straight sets.
Six of those 14 matches went the distance and Dart won five of them, so a long decider has not troubled her in this window. The straight-set half of the record is level at 4-4, which fits an opponent who has needed three sets in four of her own recent wins. The sample covers one surface window from mid-July, excludes one retirement and runs to 28 September, so it is a small base for conclusions.
- 14 completed hard-court matches tracked from 13 July to 28 September 2026; one retirement excluded
- Set scorelines: 2-1 in five matches, 1-2 in one, 2-0 in four, 0-2 in four
- Average 2.43 sets and 20.9 games per match, with tiebreaks in 3 of 14
Both players are one win from the main draw of a WTA 1000 hard-court event, the largest of the Asian swing's qualifying ladders. Reaching the main draw converts a qualifying run into a main-draw place, with the ranking points, prize money and court exposure that follow. The stakes are identical on both sides, so the value of this card is context: it explains why a deciding qualifying round carries more than a routine first-round match label.
- Listed as the China Open women's singles qualifying final on Court 5, 29 September 2026
- One win separates the loser from the main draw and the winner from a qualifying exit
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 16:23 · Europe/BucharestWTA Schedule match listingwww.wtaschedule.com · 28 Sep 2026Tennis.com China Open match centrewww.tennis.com · 28 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dart is higher-ranked and had a more comfortable qualifying win, while Ma has shown some inconsistency.
- Dart ranked 116, Ma 161
- Dart 9-5 on hard, Ma 9-6
- Dart seeded 2nd in qualifying, won opener 6-2 6-3
- Ma needed three sets to win her opener
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ma has consistently kept her matches within a few games or won them outright.
- Ma's recent hard-court game margins: +6, -5, +7, +8, +9, -2
- Ma covered +3.5 in 5 of 6 recent matches
- Dart's margins against top-200 opponents are often 4 games or fewer
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYexin Ma +3.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set averages for both players are below 9.5, making the under more likely.
- Dart's set2 total games average 8.79
- Ma's set2 total games average 8.13
- Combined average ~8.46
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first-set games for both players is below 9.5, favoring the under.
- Dart's set1 total games average 8.43
- Ma's set1 total games average 9.87
- Combined average ~9.15
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' average total games sit slightly below 21.5, favoring the under.
- Dart's matches average 20.93 games
- Ma's matches average 21.67 games
- Combined average ~21.3
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart has been slightly stronger in second sets and may press her advantage if the match is close.
- Dart's set2 record is 7-7
- Ma's set2 record is 7-8
- Dart's second-set games won average 4.57 vs Ma's 4.2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart is the higher-ranked player and won her first set comfortably in the last round.
- Dart's set1 record is 7-7
- Ma's set1 record is 9-6
- Dart won her opener 6-2 in the first set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The averages are near the line, and evenly matched opponents often go the distance.
- Dart's matches average 2.43 sets
- Ma's matches average 2.4 sets
- Both players have a ~40% three-set rate overall
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has frequently been involved in tiebreaks recently, so a match without one is more likely.
- Dart has had 3 tiebreaks in 14 matches
- Ma has had 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Both players' matches with a tiebreak are around 20%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Prediction history

Harriet Dart: 7/10 recent winner projections matched

7 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Harriet Dart matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Harriet Dart10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#128Vilius Gaubas2-0#303Harriet Dart

BetBugsHarriet Dart to win·65%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#128Vilius Gaubas2-0#303Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart to win

65%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Missed

30 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#303Harriet Dart2-0#137Andrea Pellegrino

BetBugsHarriet Dart to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#303Harriet Dart2-0#137Andrea Pellegrino

Harriet Dart to win

62%probability

Harriet Dart won

Matched

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#303Harriet Dart2-0#188David Jorda Sanchis

BetBugsHarriet Dart to win·58%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#303Harriet Dart2-0#188David Jorda Sanchis

Harriet Dart to win

58%probability

Harriet Dart won

Matched

27 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#303Harriet Dart2-0#756Manuel Mazza

BetBugsHarriet Dart to win·62%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#303Harriet Dart2-0#756Manuel Mazza

Harriet Dart to win

62%probability

Harriet Dart won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning2-0#298Harriet Dart

BetBugsHarriet Dart to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning2-0#298Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart to win

65%probability

Philip Henning won

Missed

Previous match context available

Harriet Dart

10W 5L

6-2 6-3#431Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 6-2#27Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#36Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#394Heather Watson

5-7 6-0 6-3#638Kristina Penickova

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Jordyn Hazelitt

6-1 7-6(6)#36Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-4#361Aoi Ito

6-3 6-0#106Moyuka Uchijima

3-6 6-0 6-2#136Sloane Stephens

6-3 6-3#91Taylah Preston

6-0 3-6 3-0 ret.#891Emma Dong

6-2 6-1#166Kayla Cross

6-1 6-2#33Maria Sakkari

6-3 3-6 7-6(4)#285Mina Hodzic

Yexin Ma

9W 6L

4-6 6-1 6-3#295Yufei Ren 7-5 6-3#41Kimberly Birrell

3-6 6-0 6-2#134Emerson Jones

6-3 6-1#360Eunhye Lee 6-3 6-0#771Carol Zhao

5-7 6-4 6-4#459Tahlia Kokkinis

6-4 4-6 7-6(10)#358Kristiana Sidorova

3-6 6-2 6-3#405Jiaqi Wang

6-3 6-2#437Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#218Clara Burel

6-2 6-1#242Katrina Scott

6-1 6-3#519Clervie Ngounoue

6-2 6-3#72Caty McNally

7-6(2) 6-4#41Kimberly Birrell

7-6(3) 2-6 6-0#361Aoi Ito

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHarriet DartDart

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Yexin MaMaYM

Yexin Ma carries the stronger recent form — Harriet Dart's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In51.7%+3.7pp55.4%

1st Serve Won67.5%+6.7pp60.8%

2nd Serve Won41.3%+8.3pp49.6%

Aces / Match1.7+1.22.9

Double Faults / Match4.61.3 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.0%+1.1pp47.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.0%+3.5pp51.5%

Break Pts Saved59.0%+8.6pp50.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.0%—51.6%

Serve · 1–4

51.7%1st Serve In+3.7pp55.4%

67.5%1st Serve Won+6.7pp60.8%

41.3%2nd Serve Won+8.3pp49.6%

1.7Aces / Match+1.22.9

4.6Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

49.0%Return Pts Won+1.1pp47.9%

Pressure · 1–1

48.0%Break Pts Converted+3.5pp51.5%

59.0%Break Pts Saved+8.6pp50.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.0%Total Pts Won—51.6%